What We Learned From Bills’ Week 6 Loss to Chiefs
It was just two weeks ago that the Buffalo Bills were 4-0 and the talk of the NFL. Their quarterback was a legitimate MVP candidate and the offense was piling up points at a 30 per-game pace. Now, after back-to-back games against two of the best teams in the AFC, this Bills season is starting to take on water. The good feelings of September have given way to frustration and concern in October.
The Bills fell to 4-2 on Monday as the Kansas City Chiefs handed them their second consecutive defeat, 26-17, at Bills Stadium. It was another lackluster performance from the Buffalo defense, which was gashed for 245 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, quarterback Josh Allen struggled for the second game in a row and has fallen off considerably from the high-flying pace he was on in the first four weeks. Allen completed 14 of 27 passes for just 122 yards. He did toss two more touchdowns to bring his season total to 16, but also threw an interception on his final throw of the night.
Buffalo is now searching for answers after two humbling defeats. They can’t seem to get a stop on defense and the quarterback that bailed them out so often in September is no longer saving them. It’s safe to wonder whether or not the Bills can compete with the best teams in the AFC and if the Bills are truly better than they were a year ago.
Here are four things we learned from Monday night’s loss in the rain to Kansas City:
The Bills Do Not Stack Up With the Best Teams in the AFC
The Bills have had two tests so far this season against the higher ups of the AFC. They have not come close to winning either. Though the Bills were within a score of the Chiefs in the fourth quarter, the score of the game didn’t really reflect how Kansas City really dominated.
This continues a pattern of poor performances by the Bills in recent years when they face a step up in weight class. Buffalo has won 14 games dating back to the start of last season, but they have very few impressive wins against good teams among those 14. The Bills largely feasted on teams that missed the playoffs a year ago. They won late-season games at Dallas and Pittsburgh that looked impressive at the time, but both teams ended up missing the playoffs.
When the Bills were matched up against division champions Baltimore, Philadelphia, New England, and Houston in 2019, they went 0-5. The Bills did score an impressive win in Week 3 this season against a Rams team that appears to be playoff bound, but in order to stake their claim among the AFC’s best teams, they need to show well in those games against AFC powerhouses. The Bills have blown two chances to do so already and have not looked good in either game.
Any talk of the Bills claiming the AFC’s top seed is probably dead or at least on life support after now. And fortunately for them, they don’t have many more games on the schedule against the best teams in the conference. The Bills host the currently undefeated Steelers in December, which will likely be there next test against one of the AFC’s best. They do have to prove though that they can beat the Patriots finally. The Bills will see the Patriots once in November and once in December.
Monday’s game was also another example of the Bills struggling against one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Patrick Mahomes did not exactly light it up (he didn’t have to) but he still threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. The Bills defense has done well over the last two years when they have faced lesser quarterbacks, but the league’s best have had their way.
In order to be taken seriously as a title contender, the Bills under Sean McDermott at some point have to show up and beat an actual good team. The Bills don’t have nearly enough wins against good teams under McDermott’s belt. In fact, their best win was probably against Kansas City, back in McDermott’s first season in 2017. It’s been too long since the Bills have notched a win against one of the NFL’s superior teams, especially a team in their own conference.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Defenses Are Frustrating Josh Allen Again
We all thought that Josh Allen had ascended to a higher level of play based upon the first four games of the 2020 season. We thought Allen had made his case to be considered among the best quarterbacks in the league. We had thought that the jokes and criticism of him had ended.
Maybe we thought wrong.
Allen looked like a rookie again in the Bills’ loss to Kansas City. Allen struggled to complete passes for most of the game and the ones he did complete mostly went for short gains. Allen finished with just 122 yards passing, a minuscule total that was reminiscent of the worst games of drought-era Bills quarterbacks like J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Edwards, or Tyrod Taylor.
Allen’s performance on Monday was simply not good enough in a game where he’s matched up against Patrick Mahomes. The numbers were downright ugly. The Bills had just seven first downs through the air. They averaged just 4.5 yards per pass play. At one point in the fourth quarter, Allen was 9-for-21 passing for under 70 yards. This was a far cry from the Bills offense that looked unstoppable against the Jets, Dolphins, Rams, and Raiders. The Bills had a chance to stay with the Chiefs as the defense did hold them to under 30 points. But the Bills simply needed more from Allen and the offense. They didn’t get it.
What has happened to Allen and the Bills passing offense? In the last two weeks, the Titans and Chiefs have frustrated the Bills by playing a zone-based defense that has taken away the downfield passing game. Early in the season, the Bills were taking chunks of yards downfield on deep and intermediate throws. The Bills were excelling at deep crosser routes that were beating man coverage and getting receivers open downfield. Allen was also completing these passes with ease. Teams are now taking that away by playing a deeper, softer coverage and clogging the passing lanes by sitting back in a zone and keeping everything in front of them.
So while the opportunity for bigger plays down the field has started to disappear, there are still plays to be made in the short and intermediate passing game. On Monday, Allen was far too inaccurate to take advantage of what the Chiefs gave him.
Suddenly, Allen looks like the guy he was in 2018 and 2019 once again. Whatever magic Allen had in Weeks 1-4 has disappeared in the last two games. If Allen can only succeed against man coverage, that’s a major problem. Allen, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and QB coach Ken Dorsey have to figure out a way to adjust and take advantage of these zone coverage looks. They can expect to see this every week from here on out.
Bills free safety Jordan Poyer (21) in the first quarter at Bills Stadium. Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
The Bills Have No Answers on Defense
You can give the Bills’ defensive coaching staff credit for at least trying something different on Monday. Buffalo made several changes to its defensive lineup, scratching Trent Murphy and Harrison Phillips and plugging Justin Zimmer and Bryan Cox Jr. into the lineup. They also used A.J. Klein exclusively at the linebacker position vacated by the injured Matt Milano. Tyrel Dodson played a grand total of zero snaps on defense.
Buffalo also employed an interesting strategy on defense. Sean McDermott hinted in his postgame press conference that the Bills were willing to concede rushing yards to the Chiefs in order to contain Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Kansas City’s downfield passing game.
Unfortunately for the Bills, whatever they tried fell woefully short.
While the Bills were successful at holding Kansas City to under 30 points, the Chiefs had the advantage the entire way every time they had the ball. The Bills simply could not get the Chiefs off the field as Kansas City took what the Bills gave them and ranked up a whopping 245 yards on the ground. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the star as he carried the ball 26 times for 161 yards.
And while the focus was on stopping Mahomes and the Chiefs through the air, the Super Bowl MVP still completed 21 of 26 passes for 225 yards and tossed two first half touchdowns to Travis Kelce.
Buffalo had no answers for the Chiefs offense. You can argue that the strategy to let the Chiefs run the ball worked as Kansas City was held under 30 points and Hill had only three receptions for 20 yards, but the Chiefs were taking chunks of yards whenever they needed to. The gameplan may have worked better had the Bills kept Phillips and Murphy in the lineup. They went to a smaller personnel group up front and the Chiefs took full advantage.
The Bills were simply bullied in the run game. You have to wonder about the group the Bills have at defensive tackle. They are not holding up against the run and they are not generating any pressure up the middle. They also are unable to keep their linebackers clean. Ed Oliver is really struggling. Perhaps the knee injury he suffered in Week 2 at Miami is hurting him more than the Bills have been letting on.
Meanwhile, Tremaine Edmunds has taken a huge step back in his third season. He looked confused and out of place often on Monday. It’s clear that his shoulder injury is still limiting him physically, but his instincts have also been poor as he has often put himself out of position. An example would be the first touchdown by Kelce, where Edmunds got lost in coverage and was late to get to Kelce near the goal line.
Right now, you can’t count on the Bills defense to find that level they were at in 2018 and 2019. Regression has come and it has come hard for Leslie Frazier’s unit. The injuries have decimated this defense, but the overall personnel is simply not as good as it was a year ago. And the Bills once again have fallen short against a team with a good quarterback.
The good news for the Buffalo defense is that the schedule gets easier in the next two weeks. On Sunday, they visit a Jets team that is absolutely hapless on offense. The following week, they see a Patriots team that is suddenly struggling on offense as well. If the Bills’ defense can’t step up in the next two weeks, they can’t be trusted to help out at all this season.
Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
Reinforcements Need to Be Brought In From Outside
It’s clear from the last two weeks that the Bills simply do not have the personnel necessary to be successful on defense. It’s also clear from what the Bills tried on defense on Monday that the Bills don’t have the solutions in house. The changes the Bills made to their defensive roster did not work as the Chiefs simply ran over and through the Bills’ new personnel.
In order to save the defense in 2020, a defense that may never be fully healthy, the Bills are going to have to make a move or two to bring in new additions from outside the organization.
The first six games of the season have revealed some real weaknesses at every level of the defense. The pass rush is still not good enough. Mario Addison did have a sack on Monday and Jerry Hughes again applied good pressure, but Mahomes was mostly given too much time to throw and break contain in this game. The Bills are getting no push from their defensive line. That line is also getting mauled in the run game.
Meanwhile, the linebacking unit has been decimated by the injuries to Edmunds and Milano. Edmunds has not been the same player this season since getting hurt in Week 1. The defense is also completely different without a healthy Milano in the lineup. Klein and Dodson have simply not been able to save them.
In the secondary, Levi Wallace’s injury has created a major hole at cornerback. The Bills’ depth has been challenged at corner, and neither Josh Norman nor Taron Johnson have been good enough as regulars in the lineup.
A sneaky big story of the Bills’ past offseason has to be the number of losses the team suffered on defense. They are really missing Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips, who both left in free agency. Both players were key to ensuring stoutness at the line of scrimmage, especially in the run game. The results speak for themselves with those two players gone. The two linemen the Bills signed, Quinton Jefferson and Vernon Butler, have not filled the void. Meanwhile, second round pick A.J. Epenesa has not been trusted yet by this coaching staff at defensive end.
The Bills also miss Star Lotulelei, who decided to opt out of the season due to COVID-19. He has not been a spectacular player by any means for the Bills, but he was integral to shoring up the run defense and keeping opposing linemen off of Edmunds and Milano.
Another player who opted out who the Bills miss is cornerback E.J. Gaines. He was signed to replace Kevin Johnson, who left in free agency. The Bills badly need another body at corner. Right now, they are relying on undrafted free agent Cam Lewis, who is also banged up. It’s interesting that the Bills waited to draft a cornerback until the seventh round back in April. That appeared to be a bigger need that the Bills left unfilled when they had a chance.
The NFL trade deadline is coming up on Nov. 3. It’s clear that Brandon Beane needs to make a move to bring in some help on the defense side of the ball. The answers are not in the building at One Bills Drive. We also know that Beane is not shy about making bold moves at the trade deadline. He traded for Kelvin Benjamin in 2017 and tried to trade for Stefon Diggs originally last fall. If he wants to save this season, he may need to go the trade route again in early November.
