Latest Lines: Save Mart 350k

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Line Moves

Without practice or qualification, the line movements this week were not quite as extreme as they were for the Coke 600 or the Texas Grand Prix, but seven of the top 10 ranked drivers this week experienced an alteration as of Saturday morning.

Chase Elliott (+205) opened briefly at +250 and dropped quickly to +215 before the Best Bets column was written. As low as the odds were – making for an anemic Return on Investment – enough money exchanged hands to pull another 10 cents off his line. It’s not out of the question that his line could move again before race time on Sunday. Elliott is going in only one direction, so if you’re thinking about wagering in the No. 9, you may as well lock the bet in.

It has been our opinion all week that Martin Truex Jr. (+380) is overvalued. It would appear either “Smart Money” disagrees or that the traders have simply locked in on his line, but he is one of the few drivers among the top 10 that did not see any movement. After two disappointing road course efforts this year, his two wins in the last two Sonoma races have taken precedence and dropped 100 points off his Circuit of the Americas (COTA) odds of +480. Truex was listed at +420 for the Daytona International Speedway Road Course.


Enough money seems to have impacted Kyle Busch’s (+775) line as well. He dropped a smidge from +800 at the start of this week, but the more important number may be the difference to the most recent road race. Busch was +1000 at COTA but a solid run in the rain for the Cup race and a win in Xfinity have oddsmakers looking favorably on him.

Traders are still not entirely certain about what to do with Kyle Larson (+800). We though he was a great value at +850 and the 50 cents they removed from his total has not changed our opinion substantially. The trend continues of him losing points to his line, however, and bettors are going to want to pounce on him early in the week to take advantage of that.

Denny Hamlin (+1100) opened at +1200, which is where he closed before the Texas Grand Prix. He finished moderately in Austin in part because of damage to his car. We’ve pointed out that he has been erratic on road courses in the past two years, but now he gets to tackle a track that is more familiar and where he has three top-fives in his last four Sonoma attempts.

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Kevin Harvick (+1800) was a solid value at +2000 and is still a good one at 18/1. He is one of only a handful of drivers with multiple road course wins and is capable of visiting Victory Lane on any track type. Now that the weekend is upon us: If you have any money left in your budget, he is worth a unit or two.

The final two drivers ranked in the top 10 to experience line movements both had 200 points added to their totals as traders were forced to sweeten the pot. Team Penske teammates Joey Logano (+1800) and Ryan Blaney (+2200) both have road course wins under their belts and could be part of your betting strategy.

Logano is a great value with those points added, because we ranked him in the top five at the start of the week when he did not have as great an ROI.

The final Penske Pal, Brad Keselowski (+3300) had 500 points added to his total as gamblers seem to be skipping over the organization on the road course.

Tyler Reddick (+5000) was one of our longshot picks this week to win when he was listed at 40/1. Having $10 added to his total only makes us more enthusiastic about his potential. The dark horse pick was never about road course statistics, but rather the size of this driver’s heart and the momentum he brings into the weekend.

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Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

COTA
2021

1.

Chase Elliott

205

250

-45

225

2.

Martin Truex Jr.

380

380

0

480

3.

Kyle Busch

775

800

-25

1000

4.

Kyle Larson

800

850

-50

2200

5.

Denny Hamlin

1100

1200

-100

1200

6.

William Byron

1400

1400

0

1500

7.

Kevin Harvick

1800

2000

-200

1800

7.

Joey Logano

1800

1600

200

1600

9.

Ryan Blaney

2200

2000

200

1800

10.

Alex Bowman

2500

2500

0

2500

11.

Christopher Bell

3000

3300

-300

1800

12.

Brad Keselowski

3300

2800

500

2500

13.

Tyler Reddick

5000

4000

1000

12500

14.

Kurt Busch

6000

5000

1000

3000

15.

Michael McDowell

8000

8000

0

6600

16.

Chris Buescher

9000

9000

0

8000

16.

Ross Chastain

9000

9000

0

12500

16.

Chase Briscoe

9000

8000

1000

9000

19.

Matt DiBenedetto

10000

9000

1000

8000

20.

Daniel Suarez

12500

10000

2500

10000

20.

Cole Custer

12500

10000

2500

8000

22.

Austin Dillon

20000

15000

5000

20000

22.

Erik Jones

20000

20000

0

12500

24.

Ryan Newman

25000

25000

0

25000

24.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

25000

25000

0

25000

24.

Aric Almirola

25000

25000

0

15000

27.

Bubba Wallace

30000

30000

0

25000

28.

Ryan Preece

40000

30000

10000

30000

29.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Ben Rhodes

50000

50000

0

29.

Scott Heckert

50000

50000

0

29.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

50000

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