Latest Lines: QuikTrip 500

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
Dan Beaver
·5 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.


This content is not available due to your privacy preferences.
Update your settings here to see it.


Line Moves

Nearly every driver ranked among the top 10 for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway at PointsBet Sportsbook this week showed line movement, which suggests that a lot of money was flowing.

Kevin Harvick (+575) opened the week as the favorite and remains so on Saturday. Keep checking, however, because the line continued to move literally as this story was being written. The moves are subtle. Harvick has fluctuated all week between +560 and +580 so there is a lot of interest in last year’s winner. Even with these odds, Harvick has a better Return on Investment (ROI) than he did last year at +500.

Martin Truex Jr. (+650) had a slightly bigger move of +50 points after opening at +600. Bookmakers needed to sweeten the pot a little. Despite his reputation as a "cookie-cutter" king, Truex was not dominant last year on the 1.5-milers with an average finish of ninth. Still, he has a victory on the track type as recently as Fall 2019 and last year he scored a couple of runner-up finishes on the course type. Mostly his attraction comes from last week’s Phoenix Raceway victory that has oddsmakers thinking he has regained his momentum.


Denny Hamlin (+675) moved in the opposite direction with the book shaving 50 points from his odds. They see a lot of upside in a driver who won twice on 1.5-milers last year. Hamlin’s most recent win on this track type came in the Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway. His most recent win at Atlanta came in 2012, however, and he has an average finish of 19.13 in the intervening years with only three top-10s. All of those were fifth or better, but it is still difficult to get overly excited about Hamlin. No matter what, oddsmakers value him so much more than last year because he was +1100 in 2020.

Bettors are apparently of the opinion that Chase Elliott (+725) will improve his similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track performance over last year and they forced a move of -50 points from an opening of +775. We didn’t think he was a particularly good value at the start of the week and ranked him ninth in the Best Bets article [https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/best-bets/beavers-best-bets-quiktrip-500]. With 50 cents shaved off his ROI, this movement hasn’t changed our opinion any. Elliott is consistent at Atlanta with four top-10s in five starts, but the closest he’s come to winning was a fifth in 2017.

Ryan Blaney (+1500) is another driver who apparently witnessed a lot of bets coming his way midweek. He had 100 points shaved off his opening line and that does not change our relative opinion about his ability. With a decent ROI he deserves a modest bet because of the overall strength of Team Penske, but it’s hard to go all in on him. Notably, this line is precisely where he wound up for last year’s QuikTrip 500.

CLICK HERE FOR PROP BETS

What a difference a year makes. William Byron (+1800) was a longshot for last year’s Atlanta race at +3300. This year he opened at +2000 for the QuikTrip 500 and that was attractive enough to draw a lot of attention. By Saturday, his odds lowered again by 200 points. He has one of the two winners on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year at Homestead-Miami Speedway where he closed at +3000. Apparently the oddsmakers took a little bit of a beating on the Dixie Vodka 400. Once bitten; twice shy.

Aric Almirola’s (+6600) odds were so high at the start of the week that we made him one of our top Dark Horse picks while he was listed at +8000. [https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/edge/article/best-bets/quiktrip-500-dark-horses] Oddsmakers decided that was much too high since a surprise strategy at the end of the QuikTrip 500 could put a serious hurting on their reserves. Still: at 66/1 he deserves a modest bet.

Matt DiBenedetto (+10000) also opened at +8000, but he did not garner nearly enough attention and oddsmakers were forced to sweeten the pot. He could be worth a couple of bucks from your couch cushion money.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Last year
(2611)

1.

Kevin Harvick

575

560

15

500

2.

Kyle Larson

625

625

0

3.

Martin Truex Jr.

650

600

50

900

4.

Denny Hamlin

675

725

-50

1100

5.

Brad Keselowski

725

750

-25

900

5.

Chase Elliott

725

775

-50

650

7.

Joey Logano

900

900

0

900

8.

Kyle Busch

1100

1000

100

650

9.

Ryan Blaney

1500

1600

-100

1500

10.

William Byron

1800

2000

-200

3300

11.

Kurt Busch

2500

2500

0

1600

11.

Christopher Bell

2500

2500

0

15000

13.

Alex Bowman

3300

3500

-200

800

14.

Aric Almirola

6600

8000

-1400

5000

15.

Austin Dillon

7000

7000

0

8000

16.

Tyler Reddick

8000

8000

0

5000

17.

Matt DiBenedetto

10000

8000

2000

4000

17.

Bubba Wallace

10000

9000

1000

40000

19.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

12500

10000

2500

6600

19.

Cole Custer

12500

12500

0

15000

21.

Ryan Newman

15000

15000

0

8000

21.

Erik Jones

15000

20000

-5000

2500

23.

Chris Buescher

20000

20000

0

20000

23.

Ross Chastain

20000

20000

0

23.

Chase Briscoe

20000

25000

-5000

23.

Austin Cindric

20000

12500

7500

27.

Michael McDowell

25000

25000

0

50000

28.

Daniel Suarez

35000

30000

5000

50000

29.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

150000

29.

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

29.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

50000

29.

Joey Gase

50000

50000

0

150000

29.

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

150000

29.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

29.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

29.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

29.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

150000

29.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

BEAVER’S BEST BETS FOR THE QUIKTRIP 500
POWER PERFORMANCE THROUGH AVERAGE RUNNING POSITION
LINE MOVEMENTS FOR THE INSTACART 500k