Latest Lines: Quaker State 400

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Line Moves

As opposed to last week, with major moves happening after a one-hour practice session at Road America, the line moves for the Quaker State 400 were modest. They still reveal quite a bit, however.

The top-two ranked drivers this week retained their relative positions – and both had minor line moves of 25 points. More telling is how their lines changed from this spring’s KwikTrip 500.

Kyle Larson (+225) has been the favorite for several weeks and his odds are getting progressively shorter. It’s hard to bet against him, but then again you won’t make much on a minor bet if he wins, which means that the stakes must be large enough for the Return on Investment to be significant. And, as we pointed out earlier in the week, despite his domination, he has lost three of the five races on 1.5-mile tracks.


The traders’ opinion of Larson this season is reflected in the fact that he Quaker State 400 odds are 400 points lower than those for the KwikTrip 500.

Kyle Busch (+775) has also seen a significant change from him spring odds. He is now 325 points lower than he was at the start of the season, which reflects current momentum. Smart money jumped on him early in the week to lower his odds by 25 points and he has remained there through the weekend.

Chase Elliott (+900) is one of two drivers ranked among the top five who did not experience a line move. The lesson to take from this is unclear, but it may suggest that bettors have no better idea of what to do with his Atlanta Motor Speedway record than handicappers.

With only one top-five to his credit on this track, Elliott would seem to be a bad bet. But stats are subject to change and he has momentum on his side with the Road America win last week.

Martin Truex, Jr. (+1000) has had an erratic season, but we placed him in the top 10 in this week’s Best Bets column – reluctantly. He’s too good a driver to get locked out of lead pack for long – and he was too great a value at the start of the week to ignore. A slight move of 100 points might not seem like much, but it’s about as much as anyone has shifted among the top-seven.

Likely, Truex losing 100 points to his total triggered a move for Kevin Harvick (+1100). In our estimation, Harvick has slightly better 0dds of winning on Sunday and with an extra $1 added to the payout, he is obviously a better value. It’s hard to imagine he won’t have a regular season win and the opportunities are running out.

We vacillated on Brad Keselowski (+1500) earlier in the week, but eventually landed on his being an acceptable value based on his +1200 odds. Our opinion hasn’t changed. He has not shown the strength this season we would like, but his Atlanta record makes up for some of his lost momentum. If you have a couple of units left over in this week’s biudget, go ahead and spend one of them on Kez. He was the biggest mover among the top 10.

Ryan Blaney (+1300) was the second biggest mover in the top 10 with a 200-point shift. His original line was impacted by his KwipTrip 500 victory and the blush is off that rose. Blaney didn’t exactly come from nowhere this spring, but bettors were not much more excited about him then than now.

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Rank

Driver

Opening
Odds

Current
Odds

Change

KwikTrip 500

1.

Kyle Larson

250

225

25

625

2.

Kyle Busch

800

775

25

1100

3.

Chase Elliott

900

900

0

725

4.

Martin Truex Jr./span>

1100

1000

100

650

4.

Denny Hamlin

1000

1000

0

675

6.

Kevin Harvick

1000

1100

-100

580

7.

William Byron

1300

1200

100

1800

8.

Ryan Blaney

1100

1300

-200

1500

9.

Brad Keselowski

1200

1500

-300

725

10.

Joey Logano

1600

1600

0

900

10.

Alex Bowman

1800

1600

200

3300

12.

Kurt Busch

3300

3300

0

2500

13.

Christopher Bell

3500

4000

-500

2500

14.

Austin Dillon

6000

6000

0

7000

15.

Tyler Reddick

9000

8000

1000

8000

16.

Ross Chastain

10000

10000

0

20000

17.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr./span>

15000

12500

2500

12500

17.

Aric Almirola

12500

12500

0

6600

17.

Matt DiBenedetto

12500

12500

0

10000

17.

Chris Buescher

10000

12500

-2500

20000

21.

Daniel Suarez

15000

15000

0

35000

22.

Bubba Wallace

20000

20000

0

10000

23.

Ryan Newman

25000

25000

0

15000

23.

Erik Jones

25000

25000

0

15000

23.

Cole Custer

25000

25000

0

12500

26.

Chase Briscoe

35000

35000

0

20000

27.

Michael McDowell

40000

40000

0

25000

28.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

50000

28.

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

50000

28.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

50000

28.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

28.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

50000

28.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

50000

28.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

50000

28.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

50000

28.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

50000