Latest Lines: Pocono Organics CBD 325

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Line Moves

Most of the top-10 ranked drivers moved around this week while a couple jittered about and landed at their original lines.

Kyle Larson (+215) is the hottest driver on the circuit and his odds have reflected as much by steadily dropping during the past month. [https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/edge/article/latest-lines/kyle-larson-factor] The pattern is, and has remained, that as money pours into the books, these odds drop by time the weekend rolls around, so if you are ever thinking of wagering on him do it early in the week. For the Pocono Organics CBD 325 at Pocono Raceway, he dropped 20 points from Monday till Saturday.

Denny Hamlin (+775) went in the opposite direction by adding 50 points to his total. This is a driver who swept the top two positions at Pocono last year, but has not yet won in 2021. That confusion has bettors and traders a little conflicted about what to do with him, which is reflected on the chart below. Last year, he hovered about the +800 mark, so even with his current struggles, traders seem to believe he is more likely to win in 2021 than he was in 2020.


Kyle Busch’s (+850) line ended where it started, but for a time in the middle of the week he fell to +800. That may suggest some early money came in to drive his odds down, but the trend dried up toward the end of the week. Since he is a driver that needs track time to become comfortable on the track, he will be a better bet on Sunday no matter what that line reveals.

Chase Elliott (+900) was a very good value at +1100 to start the week, and since that is when the top-three lines are typically set – and don’t usually change much at PointsBet Sportsbook – his odds for the near miss sit at +210. Both bets are worth making.

Elliott swapped places with his teammate William Byron (+1100), who started the week at +900. Bettor confidence for this young driver should have remained high because all the factors that brought him out of the gates strong are still in effect. Hendrick Motorsports still has 17 victories on this track and Byron is still riding a four-race, top-five streak on ovals. If you skip over him for the outright win, his odds for a top-three are +270.

There were two drivers among the top 10 for whom PointsBet had to significantly sweeten the pot to try and get some action. Martin Truex Jr. (+1200) and Brad Keselowski (+1600) each had 300 points added to their lines. Bettors are rightfully nervous about both drivers because they have been incredibly erratic over the past couple of months. Only place a small wager if you find some extra money in the couch cushions.

One of the biggest movers this week was Aric Almirola (+4000). And we may have had something to do with that. Opening a 60/1 was just too sweet to overlook for a driver who swept the top five at Pocono and Indy last year and may have started his long journey back toward the lead pack last week at Nashville. So we hammered those stats in both the Best Bets and Dark Horse columns. He’s still attractive at 40/1 and his top-three odds remain at +1600. A +190 wager exists for a top-10 and all three bets are indicated with progressive aggressiveness.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+15000) also showed a huge line move of 5,000 points, but at 150/1 he is still a longshot.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Pocono
2020

1.

Kyle Larson

215

235

-20

2.

Denny Hamlin

775

725

50

800

3.

Kyle Busch

850

850

0

450

4.

Kevin Harvick

900

900

0

650

4.

Chase Elliott

900

1100

-200

750

6.

William Byron

1100

900

200

2000

7.

Martin Truex Jr.

1200

900

300

750

8.

Brad Keselowski

1600

1300

300

800

8.

Ryan Blaney

1600

1500

100

1000

10.

Joey Logano

1800

1800

0

1100

11.

Alex Bowman

2000

2200

-200

2200

12.

Aric Almirola

4000

6000

-2000

6500

13.

Kurt Busch

5000

6000

-1000

2000

13.

Christopher Bell

5000

4000

1000

12500

15.

Tyler Reddick

7000

8000

-1000

6000

16.

Ross Chastain

8000

9000

-1000

17.

Matt DiBenedetto

12500

12500

0

10000

17.

Austin Dillon

12500

12500

0

10000

19.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

15000

20000

-5000

10000

19.

Chris Buescher

15000

12500

2500

12500

19.

Erik Jones

15000

15000

0

1600

22.

Ryan Newman

25000

25000

0

10000

22.

Daniel Suarez

25000

20000

5000

100000

24.

Bubba Wallace

30000

35000

-5000

8000

25.

Cole Custer

35000

35000

0

20000

26.

Chase Briscoe

40000

35000

5000

27.

Michael McDowell

50000

35000

15000

75000

27.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

150000

27.

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

150000

27.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

100000

27.

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

150000

27.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

150000

27.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

27.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

150000

27.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

27.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

150000

27.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

50000

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