Latest Lines: FireKeepers Casino 400

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Line Moves

Back to the COVID-19 protocols, practice and qualification are not on the schedule for this week’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway and that means any movement in the betting lines was occasioned by the volume of wagers.

Most of the top-six drivers hardly moved at all with Kyle Larson (+290) showing the slightest of changes with a 10-point drop.

Moving from +900, Kyle Busch (+800) had the only significant shift at the top of the chart. It is not so much the 100 points that got shaved from his line that makes this notable, but rather that he went from being ranked fourth in odds to second – tied with the driver that the PointsBet Sportsbook traders have largely viewed as the second-best driver in the field through the middle of the season.


Chase Elliott (+800) held his ground and is tied with Busch for second in the rankings, but both drivers lag well behind Larson. Of course, the No. 5 team has a much stronger record this season and the most wins, so none of that is surprising – just notable.

Martin Truex Jr. (+850), Kevin Harvick (+900), and Denny Hamlin (+1000) also kept their opening lines through Saturday morning.

Once you get down into the top half of the top 10, all of the lines show movement. And nearly all of those changes came in the form of traders needing to sweeten the pot to get some juice flowing. The presumption here is that the volume of bets on Larson limited the action on most of the remainder of the field, while the remainder of the top six showed about what was expected.

Joey Logano (+1400) had 200 points added to his total. He was an interesting choice earlier in the week and with two dollars added to his payout, he is a better value. Logano has two wins in the last 16 Michigan races with the most recent of these coming in the first race of 2019. Last year, he finished eighth and fifth in the doubleheader.

Brad Keselowski (+1500) showed a slightly smaller movement of 100 points added to his total. Kez finished second to Harvick last year in Michigan 1 and was racing for the lead with teammate Ryan Blaney in the second half of the doubleheader when the two crashed. While he has a track record that would suggest he should see some action, his recent performance this season has been uneven and it’s hard to recommend him.

The final Penske pal, Blaney (+1800) had 300 points added to his payout. He was one of our Best Bets at the start of the week and nothing has happened to change our opinion – you just have an extra $3 worth of incentive to place the bet.

Alex Bowman (+1800) showed the biggest negative movement this week with 200 points shaved from his total. He was undervalued at the start of the week with 20/1 odds and smart money latched onto those odds. He still shows a solid Return on Investment (ROI), so it’s not too late to jump on the bandwagon. Also noteworthy is how much his odds have changed from 2020 when he was listed at +4000.

Teammate William Byron (+1500) shows the same level of respect with a huge lowering of odds from 2020. He was listed at +5000 last year, and with two results outside the top 10 that was an appropriate line. Hendrick Motorsports is head and shoulders above where they were in 2020, however.

Several dark horses also had notable line moves outside the ranked top-10.

Christopher Bell (+2500) apparently received enough action to have 300 points shaved from his line and he is now just outside the top 10.

Tyler Reddick (+4000) dropped 1,000 points with Ross Chastain (+6600) dropping 1,400 and Aric Almirola (+8000) getting 2,000 shaved off his line. Each of those drivers is still a longshot, but for bettors who jumped onto their original lines, there is a huge upside if they are able to pull off the upset.

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Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

2020 Michigan 2
Odds (2629) (DraftKings)

1.

Kyle Larson

290

300

-10

2.

Kyle Busch

800

900

-100

1000

2.

Chase Elliott

800

800

0

1200

4.

Martin Truex, Jr.

850

850

0

850

5.

Kevin Harvick

900

900

0

250

6.

Denny Hamlin

1000

1000

0

600

7.

Joey Logano

1400

1200

200

1100

8.

Brad Keselowski

1500

1400

100

800

8.

William Byron

1500

1400

100

5000

10.

Ryan Blaney

1800

1500

300

800

10.

Alex Bowman

1800

2000

-200

4000

12.

Christopher Bell

2500

2800

-300

5000

13.

Kurt Busch

2800

2800

0

2200

14.

Tyler Reddick

4000

5000

-1000

5000

15.

Austin Dillon

6000

6000

0

8000

16.

Ross Chastain

6600

8000

-1400

17.

Aric Almirola

8000

10000

-2000

2200

17.

Matt DiBenedetto

8000

8000

0

4000

19.

Daniel Suarez

12500

15000

-2500

75000

20.

Bubba Wallace

15000

15000

0

15000

21.

Ryan Newman

20000

20000

0

20000

21.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

20000

25000

-5000

20000

21.

Chris Buescher

20000

15000

5000

20000

21.

Chase Briscoe

20000

20000

0

25.

Cole Custer

25000

25000

0

8000

26.

Erik Jones

30000

35000

-5000

3500

27.

Ryan Preece

40000

40000

0

75000

28.

Michael McDowell

50000

50000

0

100000

28.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

28.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

200000

28.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

150000

28.

Josh Berry

50000

50000

0

28.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

200000

28.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

28.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

200000

28.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

28.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

200000

28.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

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