Latest Lines: Dixie Vodka 400

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Dan Beaver
·5 min read
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Line Moves

Denny Hamlin (+520) and Kevin Harvick (+625) remain favorites for the Dixie Vodka 400 without any line movement, while another pair of top contenders in the top five had their odds shift slightly.

Ostensibly because of his win in last year’s edition of this race, Hamlin retained his favored spot. That victory is his only top-five since he also won in 2013. While he is not the driver we would have chosen for the favored role, it is really his relatively low return on investment at the beginning of the week and now that makes him a questionable wager. Our recommendation is to pass on Hamlin this week.

At the start of the week, we were equally baffled by the confidence oddsmakers had in Chase Elliott (+625). He opened at +600 and needed a little nudge regarding the line to encourage more money to come in. To make him attractive, he needed a much bigger movement. Like Hamlin, he was solid last spring. Elliott finished second in that race and has another top-five in the past four years at Homestead. He has never failed to score a top-15 there and is coming off a disappointing finish in the O’Reilly 253 when he was expected to win. That should play into his favor and spark a little more speed – but it’s questionable if it will get him all the way to the front.


Likewise Martin Truex Jr. (+775) had a slight line movement of 25 points. Frankly, he was our top choice earlier this week in the Best Bets column and without any on track activity, there is no reason to change our mind. If anything, adding another 25 cents on each dollar wagered makes him even more attractive.

The two biggest movers among the top 10 this week are and Joey Logano (+100) and Brad Keselowski (+1200), who had points subtracted from their odds suggesting that enough money has flowed in so oddsmakers needed to minimize their exposure.

Logano has a victory in 2018 when he beat Truex for the championship. He had a top-five the following year and those are part of a five-race streak of results sixth or better. He guessed right on the complexion of the race in 2018 and had a short run car when that was required. Races are often won in the hauler before a lap is ever turned at speed.

Keselowski has not won yet at Homestead. With three top-fives in 13 attempts and an average finish of 14.08, he has not really come close and it is difficult to recommend placing a bet for an outright win. Stats are fluid and he has Keselowski is strong on 1.5-mile tracks, so no one can be faulted for the risk, however. It is, after all, called gambling.

We thought Kyle Larson (+900) was undervalued earlier this week and he showed a fairly significant line movement of 50 points. With 9/1 odds, he is worth a significant bet becasue he is in the best equipment of his career on a track that he likes. He can also be had for +225 to finish in the top-three at PointsBet Sportsbook and bettors should cover their outright exposure with the side bet.

Prop Bets

There really are not very many interesting head-to-head matchups this week.

Most of the odds are too close to even money to make the risk worthwhile, but they provide a little more insight into who is expected to run better. For much of the week on a several sportsbooks William Byron (+3500) and Alex Bowman (+2800) were ranked much closer than on Saturday. But as the money came in, Byron had 500 points added to his total for an outright win.

In a head-to-head with Bowman, Byron sits at +110. He might have a place in your betting strategy. For some reason Byron is at +105 for a top-10 – but Bowman is currently listed at +120. Bowman does not have a realistic shot at the outright win, but he could add a little to the kitty with a 20-cent return on the dollar.

Tyler Reddick (+2500) is ranked 10th in terms of odds this week, which is much too enthusiastic. He can be secured at +550 to finish in the top three, however, and that is a much better bet for a driver who loves to run the high side on this progressively-banked track.

Ross Chastain (+20000) is listed at +3000 for a top-three and +375 for a top-10. Chip Ganassi Racing has been strong on this track in this car with Larson behind the wheel. Chastain deserves just a little juice if the budget allows for a dark horse bet.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Last Year
Odds

1.

Denny Hamlin

520

520

0

800

2.

Kevin Harvick

625

625

0

700

2.

Chase Elliott

625

600

25

400

4.

Martin Truex Jr.

775

750

25

450

5.

Kyle Busch

900

900

0

650

5.

Kyle Larson

900

850

50

7.

Joey Logano

1000

1100

-100

1600

8.

Brad Keselowski

1200

1300

-100

1400

9.

Ryan Blaney

1500

1500

0

900

10.

Tyler Reddick

2500

2500

0

8000

11.

Alex Bowman

2800

2800

0

3300

11.

Christopher Bell

2800

3000

-200

6600

13.

William Byron

3500

3000

500

4000

14.

Kurt Busch

4000

4000

0

2200

14.

Aric Almirola

4000

4000

0

5000

16.

Austin Dillon

5000

5000

0

20000

17.

Bubba Wallace

7000

7000

0

30000

18.

Matt DiBenedetto

8000

7000

1000

3300

18.

Chase Briscoe

8000

9000

-1000

20.

Cole Custer

9000

9000

0

8000

21.

Erik Jones

10000

10000

0

3300

22.

Ryan Newman

12500

12500

0

10000

23.

Ross Chastain

20000

15000

5000

24.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

25000

25000

0

25000

25.

Michael McDowell

30000

35000

-5000

10000

26.

Ryan Preece

40000

50000

-10000

75000

26.

Chris Buescher

40000

35000

5000

15000

28.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

28.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

25000

28.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

150000

28.

Daniel Suarez

50000

50000

0

35000

28.

Timmy Hill

50000

50000

0

200000

28.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

28.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

28.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

28.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

28.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

200000

28.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

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