Latest Lines: Coke Zero Sugar 400

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Line Moves

The week began with a favorite and a couple of drivers near the 10/1 mark, but Daytona International Speedway is a difficult track to handicap and there were quite a few drivers listed at +1600 – almost as if that were a placeholder until early money started to flow.

By the middle of the week, those 16/1 drivers started moving around. Without any on track activity, it is safe to presume that the movements came as the result of the volume of bets. By the end of the week, seven of the top-10 ranked drivers showed line movement.

Denny Hamlin (+700) bounced around a little. He opened at +675, saw a high line of +725 and settled back to 7/1 on Saturday morning. Far more significant this week is the fact that his current line is 100 points lower than what he had for the Daytona 500, and he entered that event as the two-time defending champion.


Joey Logano (+1200) showed the biggest movement of any driver in the top 10. In fact, there was only one other driver in the top-20 that had as dramatic a line chance. Logano is tricky this week. If one regards strength-based stats during a carburetor-restricted superspeedway race, he is the best driver in the field – but far too many accidents in the closing laps of the race makes him a poor bet, even when he was 16/1.

It is a little surprising to see Kyle Larson (+1200) with 100 points shaved from his line. True, he has current momentum on his side, but restricted tracks play by their own rules and through most of his career, he has stood on the edge of this particular playground. He has yet to score a top-five at Daytona and it’s difficult to imagine that will happen this week.

Brad Keselowski (+1300) had 300 points taken from his line. Like teammate Logano, he runs well at Daytona without the recent record to support any enthusiasm. Keselowski won the 2016 Coke Zero 400, but in the nine races that followed, he has only one more top-10 on this track. That was a 10th in last year’s edition of this race.

Ryan Blaney (+1400) and William Byron (+1400) both had 200 points taken off their line, which makes them part of five drivers in the top seven who experienced reductions. Since so many drivers had points taken away, we can also make a guess that the overall volume of bets on the original six drivers listed at +1600 was insufficient to create a profitable enough pool from which to pay out those lines.

For Blaney, however, that is still 300 points higher than the line he witnessed for the Daytona 500 – and that indicates a little added confidence.

We have been paying close attention to Austin Dillon (+2000) all week. He has a lot on the line and is a solid plate racer and when he opened at +1600, we were enthusiastic about his dark horse status. Apparently the early Smart Money did not share our opinion and he moved to +2000 in the middle of the week before falling back to his current +1800 early Saturday morning, and he moved back to 20/1 literally as this post was being written.

Bubba Wallace (+2800) has been bouncing about as well, hovering between 30/1 and 28/1.

The other big mover among the top 20 this week was Michael McDowell (+3500). He joins Logano with a more than 300-point movement, but in his case the oddsmakers had to sweeten the pot in order to get some juice flowing. It would seem that Smart Money believes his luck is due to run out after his Daytona 500 win and third-place finish at Talladega. Even at 35/1, however, his line is significantly lower than the 66/1 he showed before the 500 win.

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Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Daytona 500
odds

1.

Denny Hamlin

700

675

25

800

2.

Joey Logano

1200

1600

-400

1000

3.

Kyle Larson

1200

1300

-100

1600

4.

Brad Keselowski

1300

1600

-300

1300

5.

Chase Elliott

1400

1400

0

1000

5.

Ryan Blaney

1400

1600

-200

1100

5.

William Byron

1400

1600

-200

1600

8.

Kyle Busch

1600

1600

0

1400

9.

Austin Dillon

2000

1600

400

2500

10.

Kevin Harvick

2000

2000

0

1400

11.

Aric Almirola

2200

2500

-300

1500

11.

Alex Bowman

2200

2200

0

2000

13.

Martin Truex, Jr.

2500

2500

0

1800

13.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

2500

2500

0

2200

13.

Christopher Bell

2500

2500

0

3000

16.

Matt DiBenedetto

2800

2800

0

3500

17.

Kurt Busch

3000

2800

200

2500

17.

Bubba Wallace

2800

3000

-200

1800

19.

Michael McDowell

3500

3000

500

6600

19.

Tyler Reddick

3500

3500

0

5000

21.

Ryan Newman

4000

3300

700

4000

22.

Chris Buescher

5000

3300

1700

6000

22.

Ross Chastain

5000

3300

1700

3000

24.

Erik Jones

6000

4000

2000

5000

25.

Daniel Suarez

6600

5000

1600

9000

25.

Cole Custer

6600

5000

1600

5000

25.

Chase Briscoe

6600

5000

1600

6000

28.

Ryan Preece

9000

7000

2000

9000

28.

Kaz Grala

9000

9000

0

25000

30.

Corey LaJoie

10000

7000

3000

12500

31.

Justin Haley

12500

12500

0

10000

32.

Landon Cassill

20000

30000

-10000

33.

Anthony Alfredo

25000

25000

0

25000

34.

David Starr

50000

50000

0

34.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

25000

34.

Joey Gase

50000

50000

0

50000

34.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

50000

34.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

50000

34.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

50000

34.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

30000

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