Latest Lines: Coke 600

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Editor's Note: This article was written before qualification. The two charts at the bottom of the article reflect the line movement after each session.

Line Moves

The Coke 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is one of the biggest races of the year and it has long been a gift to race fans that both it and the Indy 500 are run on the Memorial Day weekend. This race is so important, in fact, that NASCAR scheduled practice and qualification sessions for it.

After Friday’s practice, nearly every driver ranked among the top 20 experienced line movements and they may yet change again. If you see a line you like, lock it in – but save a few units in reserve. If it changes and becomes more attractive, you can always place an additional bet.

One driver who experienced a huge line movement for the Coke 600 was Austin Dillon (+3500 +3300). He was on our radar screen at the start of the week, but after posting a fast time in practice, the oddsmakers took notice as well and cut his odds in half from his opening line of 70/1. He continues to show favorable top-10 odds of +190 at PointsBet Sportsbook, and that is the more attractive bet.


Kyle Larson (+350) opened briefly at +600 and was quickly dropped to +450. At the time, we noted that he would probably drop again. He did and regardless of his odds and the value that gets attached to that, he has to be considered the favorite to win. Last week Chase Elliott won with much lower odds of a little more than 2/1. If you liked that bet, this one is just as attractive. Larson can also be wagered at +155 for a top-three.

Martin Truex Jr. (+550 +600) went the opposite direction. He actually opened as the favorite before he was displaced by Larson. We thought he was overvalued at the time and our opinion has not changed with the extra 70 cents on the dollar. Truex is just too inconsistent to make him a solid bet – especially if the team is prone to gambling with three wins in the bank. Truex's modest qualification run of eighth dropped him another 50 points.

Chase Elliott (+650 +580) showed a minor line movement this week of 25 points. While that does not change the metric on whether you want to bet him, it does suggest that there was not enough action at the original line and oddsmakers needed to sweeten the pot just a little. Smart Money often knows a thing or two. After his third-place qualification effort for Sunday's race, Elliott dropped 70 points. Maybe the early Smart Money was wrong.

Likewise, Denny Hamlin (+900 +1000) showed a slight move of 50 points – and he also had the kitty sweetened. Hamlin can be just as inconsistent as Truex, but with better odds, he is a better bet. You may wish to wager on his top-three odds of +190 instead to hedge.

The next three drivers in the rankings each had +100 points added to their line. If you were already thinking about wagering on Brad Keselowski (+1200), Kevin Harvick (+1300), or Joey Logano (+1300), you’ve been incentivized by a dollar and that could be important to your bottom line. Of these three, Logano was the most impressive in practice.

The rest of the Hendrick contingent rounds out the top 10.

William Byron (+1400 +1300) and Alex Bowman (+1500) both moved from their original lines of 18/1 based on fast practice speeds. All four Hendrick cars are going to contend for top-10s and even based on their original lines, they were in the minus range for that finish. You’re going to have to do some soul-searching to determine if it’s worth +195 to wager them for top-fives.

Erik Jones (+12500 +20000) had the biggest line movement. He started the week with 300/1 odds, but the oddsmakers saw his practice speeds and dropped him to 125/1. It’s difficult to imagine him winning unless the Richard Petty Motorsports driver employs a great strategy no one else uses, but he can be wagered at +2000 for a top-five and +550 for a top 10. Lock those bets in.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. rode a rollercoaster. He opened at +9000, dropped to +15000 and then after qualifying on the outside pole, he dropped back down to +6600.

After Qualification

Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Coke 600 2020

1.

Kyle Larson

350

450

-100

2.

Chase Elliott

575

625

-50

850

3.

Martin Truex Jr./span>

625

480

145

550

4.

Denny Hamlin

900

850

50

900

5.

Kyle Busch

1000

675

325

430

6.

Kevin Harvick

1200

1200

0

600

7.

Brad Keselowski

1300

1100

200

1000

7.

William Byron

1300

1800

-500

1900

9.

Joey Logano

1400

1200

200

1000

9.

Alex Bowman

1400

1800

-400

1200

11.

Ryan Blaney

1600

1500

100

2600

12.

Austin Dillon

3300

7000

-3700

4200

12.

Tyler Reddick

3300

4000

-700

4500

14.

Christopher Bell

4000

2800

1200

8000

15.

Kurt Busch

6600

5000

1600

2400

15.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr./span>

6600

9000

-2400

2800

17.

Daniel Suarez

9000

20000

-11000

18000

18.

Matt DiBenedetto

10000

10000

0

6500

19.

Ross Chastain

12500

20000

-7500

20.

Erik Jones

20000

30000

-10000

2900

21.

Ryan Newman

25000

20000

5000

8000

21.

Aric Almirola

25000

15000

10000

4000

21.

Chris Buescher

25000

15000

10000

8000

21.

Bubba Wallace

25000

25000

0

18000

21.

Cole Custer

25000

15000

10000

9500

21.

Chase Briscoe

25000

20000

5000

27.

Michael McDowell

30000

20000

10000

20000

28.

David Starr

50000

50000

0

28.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

28.

Ryan Preece

50000

40000

10000

20000

28.

James Davison

50000

50000

0

28.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

20000

28.

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

28.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

28.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

28.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

28.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

20000

28.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

After Practice, before qualification

Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Coke 600 2020

1

Kyle Larson

350

600

-250

2

Martin Truex Jr./span>

550

480

70

550

3

Chase Elliott

650

625

25

850

4

Kyle Busch

675

675

0

430

5

Denny Hamlin

900

850

50

900

6

Brad Keselowski

1200

1100

100

1000

7

Kevin Harvick

1300

1200

100

600

7

Joey Logano

1300

1200

100

1000

9

William Byron

1400

1800

-400

1900

10

Alex Bowman

1500

1800

-300

1200

11

Ryan Blaney

1600

1500

100

2600

12

Tyler Reddick

3000

4000

-1000

4500

13

Austin Dillon

3500

7000

-3500

4200

13

Christopher Bell

3500

2800

700

8000

15

Kurt Busch

6600

5000

1600

2400

16

Matt DiBenedetto

10000

10000

0

6500

17

Erik Jones

12500

30000

-17500

2900

18

Ricky Stenhouse Jr./span>

15000

9000

6000

2800

18

Daniel Suarez

15000

20000

-5000

18000

20

Ryan Newman

20000

20000

0

8000

20

Aric Almirola

20000

15000

5000

4000

20

Chris Buescher

20000

15000

5000

8000

23

Michael McDowell

25000

20000

5000

20000

23

Ross Chastain

25000

20000

5000

23

Cole Custer

25000

15000

10000

9500

26

Bubba Wallace

30000

25000

5000

18000

26

Chase Briscoe

30000

20000

10000

28

David Starr

50000

50000

0

28

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

28

Ryan Preece

50000

40000

10000

20000

28

James Davison

50000

50000

0

28

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

20000

28

Garrett Smithley

50000

50000

0

28

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

28

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

28

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

28

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

20000

28

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

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