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Lady Vols basketball vs Toledo: NCAA second round scouting report, score prediction

Lady Vols basketball will have a bit of déjà vu in the NCAA Tournament second round.

No. 4 seed Tennessee (24-11) faces No. 12 seed Toledo (29-4) on Monday (6 p.m., ESPN2) at Thompson-Boling Arena. The Rockets upset No. 5 seed Iowa State 80-73 on Saturday, much like No. 12 seed Belmont upset No. 5 seed Oregon in Knoxville last season. The Lady Vols blew out No. 13 seed Saint Louis 95-50 in the first game Saturday.

Toledo enters the game on a 17-game win streak.

Here's what you need to know about the matchup:

FROM SATURDAY'S WIN: Jordan Walker set tone for Lady Vols all season – start of March Madness was no exception

WAITING TO DECIDE: Jordan Horston hasn't made decision about fifth year with Lady Vols basketball or WNBA Draft

SOPHOMORES STEP UP: How Karoline Striplin and Jillian Hollingshead grew into Tamari Key's role for Lady Vols

Quinesha Lockett fuels offense

Quinesha Lockett scored a game-high 24 points on 11-for-20 shooting, along with 13 rebounds and four assists in Toledo's upset Saturday. The senior guard plays with an energy her team feeds off of, and she fights for every possession.

Keeping her off the boards and contained will be key for Tennessee. Rebounding is an area the Lady Vols will want to dominate against a Toledo team that only averages 37 rebounds.

Sophia Wiard, who averages 10.1 points, scored 15 on Saturday. Wiard leads the team with 130 assists this season, and Lockett is right behind her with 116.

Toledo shot high percentage, got bench production Saturday

Toledo shot 58.5% in the second quarter when it took the lead against Iowa State. The Rockets shot 48.4% overall and went 7-for-19 from behind the arc.

Toledo guard Quinesha Lockett (5) shoots past Iowa State guard Ashley Joens, left, in the first half of a first-round college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 18, 2023, in Knoxville, Tenn.
Toledo guard Quinesha Lockett (5) shoots past Iowa State guard Ashley Joens, left, in the first half of a first-round college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament, Saturday, March 18, 2023, in Knoxville, Tenn.

Both those categories were helped by Toledo's bench, which scored 29 points. Jayda Jansen, a senior guard, had 17 points on 46% shooting and went 2-for-6 from 3-point range. Junior wing Nan Garcia added 12 points on 50% shooting and went 2-for-5 from deep.

The reserves also went a perfect 5-for-5 from the free throw line. Toledo shot 13-for-16 on Saturday.

Test for Tennessee's defense

The Lady Vols held Saint Louis to 50 points. Toledo will be another test for Tennessee's defense and its ability to put games away early.

The Lady Vols pulled away from Saint Louis because of defensive stops and 13 momentum-swinging steals – their second-highest in a single game this season. But Tennessee's 29-0 run that spanned the second and third quarters wasn't all just hitting shots, it was stingy defense and, at times, a full-court press.

St Louis guard Julia Martinez (11) is defended during a college basketball game between the Lady Vols and St. Louis in the first round of the NCAA tournament, in Thompson-Boling Arena, Saturday, March 18, 2023.
St Louis guard Julia Martinez (11) is defended during a college basketball game between the Lady Vols and St. Louis in the first round of the NCAA tournament, in Thompson-Boling Arena, Saturday, March 18, 2023.

The Rockets average 73.6 points and scored 80 against Iowa State. Tennessee's biggest focus has to be continuing to build on its defensive performance Saturday so it can continue to capitalize on transition opportunities.

Score prediction

Tennessee 82, Toledo 67: The Lady Vols have a lot to prove still – and they're ready to do it. Back-to-back trips to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2015 and 2016 is on the line, and Tennessee will ride its momentum to Seattle.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Lady Vols basketball vs. Toledo: scouting report, score prediction