Kwik Trip 250 DFS Gems

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NASCAR heads back to a road course this week for the third race on that track type. There will be plenty of comers and goers, but by the end of the evening, most of the drivers who started at the front of the pack will be there again. Place differential points will primarily come into play for drivers who muff their qualification attempt.

Road races are like chess matches. Strategy plays an equal part with strength. Drivers who put a wheel off course or get stranded by an ill-timed caution flag have a difficult time passing more than a handful of cars, so track position will be the most critical component of who is successful. Unfortunately, who that will benefit won’t be known until the race is well underway and your roster is set.

Road courses have truly become wildcards with a lot of surprises at the front of the field. The first two races have been won by drivers seeking their first Cup wins. Last year, Christopher Bell got his first at Daytona International Speedway on their road course.

And yet, somehow the cream rises, so fantasy players cannot completely ignore the marquee drivers everyone expects to run up front. The cap managers know this as well and the three favorites for this week are all listed above $10k.

Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Chase Elliott ($11,100)
Elliott is expensive, but it’s hard to imagine winning without him. Elliott may well be the best road course racer NASCAR has ever seen and it is only a matter of time before he catches and passes Jeff Gordon for the most wins. He’s the defending winner of this race and one of four drivers who have earned top-10s in the first two races. It’s hard to know how Sonoma Raceway might have gone without his tire problem at the end of Stage 2, but it’s not out of the question to think he would have won.

Ross Chastain ($10,300)
The cap managers are only now coming to terms with Chastain’s newfound strength and it’s taking a while to price him at the top of this range. The Kwik Trip 250 is only the third time in his career that Chastain has been listed above the $10k mark and he is the second cheapest Group A driver. Chastain also has top-10s in both road races this year and was able to prove at Sonoma that his COTA win was not a fluke. We’re betting he is going to easily challenge for a top-five.

Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)

Kevin Harvick ($8,100)
It was no coincidence that Harvick was one of the four drivers at the front of the Sonoma order looking for his first win of 2022. Stewart-Haas Racing has had their fair share of troubles over the past two seasons, but Harvick is a good enough racer to overcome that deficit on drivers’ tracks – and road courses fit that criterion. If Harvick gets track position late in the race, he will do whatever is necessary to win and qualify for the championship. And if it’s Elliott keeping him from the lead, Harvick may still feel like he has unfinished business.

Christopher Bell ($8,900)
Bell is another of the drivers looking for his first win of 2022. He’s proven he can do it, not only with his Daytona win, but also a second-place finish in last year’s Road America race and a third at COTA this spring. One thing these three tracks have in common is they are all new to NASCAR and that tends to level the playing field. It’s also one of the reasons we skipped over Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,600) because nearly all his success came at Sonoma and Watkins Glen International.

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Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)

Daniel Suarez ($7,700)
We don’t think lightning will strike twice, but after winning his first career race at Sonoma, Suarez will attack this course with much more aggression and confidence than in the past. On a four-mile, 14-turn course, that will give him a lot of speed at the ends of the straights. Last week he withstood massive pressure in the closing laps from Chris Buescher, and if that driver didn’t rattle him, we believe Suarez has the skill to not overdrive his braking points. Along with Chastain, Trackhouse Racing has both road course wins this year.

Michael McDowell ($6,800)
For the longest time, McDowell was our go-to road course dark horse in Group C or D, depending on how the cap managers valued him. He struggled through a few races on this track type recently, and quite frankly, we lost confidence. His background in the Trans Am series prepared him for this style of racing and he was one of the surprise top-five finishers at Sonoma. McDowell also has several strong runs on ovals, so the Front Row Motorsports organization is gaining some momentum with the NextGen car.

Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)

Austin Dillon ($6,200)
We’re not sure why Dillon is so cheap this week, but it’s rarely wise to look a gift horse in the mouth. Granted, Dillon is apparently stronger on other course types, but his consistency is great on the twisty tracks as well. Dillon has top-15 finishes in all but two of his last nine road course attempts in the past two seasons and that is more than enough to make him a great value that will open opportunities for you to upgrade a driver above him.

Todd Gilliland ($6,000)
Harrison Burton ($5,000)
It’s too soon to draw conclusions, but these two drivers have been respectable in their first two Cup starts on road course. They both challenged for top-15s at COTA and finished in the mid-20s at Sonoma. If your strategy dictates taking some bargain basement drivers that you don’t believe will cost you points, Gilliland and Burton are relatively safe bets.

The top-10 points’ earners from the 2022 Kwik Trip 250 were: 1. Chase Elliott (89.4), 2. Kyle Busch (79), 3. Chase Briscoe (67), 4. Austin Dillon (58), 5. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (57.45), 6. Christopher Bell (55.25), 7. Kurt Busch (52.9), 8. Denny Hamlin (40.45), 9. Ross Chastain (37.45), 10. Brad Keselowski (37)

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