Key questions for every top-10 pick in an NFL Draft that seems destined for chaos
In the same 24-hour span that Atlanta Falcons general manager called this week’s NFL Draft the most “uncertain” he has ever seen, the betting odds of Kentucky quarterback Will Levis being selected No. 1 overall spiked dramatically … due to a completely anonymous post on Reddit.
That’s a pretty good snapshot of the potential chaos in this NFL Draft, which has swirled into the shape of a massive question mark the closer we’ve gotten to Thursday’s first round.
As one general manager put it Tuesday, “The only thing that seems like it’s a sure thing now is the first pick. After that, nobody really knows what anyone is doing.”
A little less than two months ago, it looked like an obvious road map would be provided by the quarterbacks. At the time, there was thought that three of the top four picks — or possibly even all four — could be lavished on Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson. Now? Only one of those four seems to have settled into a slot, while the remaining three are being connected to multiple teams and draft trajectories.
That has played a large part in the draft’s top 10 seeming wildly uncertain heading into Thursday night. Indeed, as late as Wednesday morning, some of the most keen executives with connections across the league were still mostly shrugging about who was going where.
With that in mind, we present 10 questions about the top 10 selections. If you know the answers to even half of these, you’re likely on par with the sharpest NFL teams.
1. What happens if the Carolina Panthers don’t select Bryce Young No. 1?
If this happens, everything goes out the window. At this point, the Panthers passing on Young at the No. 1 overall pick would be an absolute stunner. That reaction wouldn’t just be reserved for the mock draft crowd, either. Personnel executives from a multitude of teams told Yahoo Sports this week that Young was the only selection they considered “locked.” If for some reason the Panthers pass on Young, it would reshuffle multiple picks down the line, as the Houston Texans would surely take Young with the No. 2 pick, pushing down either another quarterback or a high-end defensive player.
But don’t waste too much sleep on that scenario. Across the league, the consensus is Young being the player who kicks off the draft.
2. What if the Houston Texans pass on a QB at No. 2?
If this happens, a quarterback (or two) is going to slide. As we’ve gotten closer to the draft, this has seemed more and more like a situation where Houston is going to go with the best defensive player on its board at No. 2 overall. Two edge rushers, Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. and Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson, appear to be the favorites for the slot. There may be some trepidation on Houston’s part when it comes to Wilson’s recent foot surgery, while Anderson is a comfortable fit.
That said, a few teams believe there’s a possibility that Houston remains in the quarterback market — but not at the second overall pick. Instead, they envision a scenario where the Texans take a defensive player with their second pick, then trade into the top 10 from their No. 12 overall pick if a QB starts to slide. Any of the other three top quarterbacks aside from Young — Stroud, Richardson or Levis — could be a slide candidate.
The recent buzz around Stroud scoring low on his S2 cognitive recognition test could have a real impact on his slotting, especially for the franchises that are believers in the S2. A handful of teams told Yahoo Sports that Levis and Richardson scored well on the S2, while also confirming that Stroud was among the lowest results in this year’s quarterback class. If any of the three are suddenly falling past the seventh pick, some teams believe the Texans could become players in a trade scenario.
3. What if the Arizona Cardinals can’t trade out of No. 3?
If this happens, the Cardinals might have to reach for a need player. As of early Wednesday, it sounded like interest in the third overall pick was dead — even if the Cardinals were interested in selling low. The different holes in the quarterback résumés have not helped Arizona generate a bidding war to move up, but there’s still an outside chance that a team could catch wind of the quarterback target of the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4 and suddenly want to get in front of them. That could be the Raiders, but there’s not certainty Las Vegas is hot to move up for anyone other than Young.
If the Cardinals are stuck at the third pick, there’s been a strong belief over the past week that Arizona wants to draft an offensive tackle who would be a Day 1 starter. Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. fits that description and he is reportedly favored by quarterback Kyler Murray.
4. What quarterback is being targeted by the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4?
This is quietly one of the most intriguing questions of the entire draft. The Colts have done a good job keeping people guessing about which quarterback they would favor at the fourth overall pick, and now it’s starting to look like they may get their choice between Stroud, Richardson and Levis. That has left teams inside the top 10 all very curious about this pick. Given the fact that team owner Jim Irsay is expected to be involved here, the choice could be any of the trio, simply due to the wild-card factor. Elements of the coaching staff seem to lean toward a player like Richardson, but sources familiar with the Colts' coaching staff and front office seem to believe Levis will be the Colts' pick if he’s on the board at four.
5. What if the Seattle Seahawks pass on Jalen Carter at No. 5?
If this happens, it would be another stunner, given what Carter represents for the Seahawks. He not only fills a need, but carries with him arguably the biggest upside of any player in this draft. That said, teams seem to be wringing their hands about Carter’s maturity and feel like his talent comes with plenty of baggage. The word “mess” has been thrown out to describe him. That’s not good.
The Seahawks have a track record of rolling the dice on monumentally talented players. Sometimes the gambles work (Frank Clark). Other times they don’t (Malik McDowell).
It’s worth noting that as talented as those aforementioned players were, neither was considered potentially the best player in their draft. Carter is. If the Seahawks don’t take him, he could make it down into the 8-9-10 selection area. At that point, it’s likely the risk gets outweighed by the reward and a team like the Atlanta Falcons or Chicago Bears select him, or start taking calls from teams interested in moving up for Carter.
6. What if the Detroit Lions pull a shocker at No. 6?
If this happened, it might not shock anyone at all. The consensus on Detroit among the teams that surround the Lions is they will either be predictable and take a cornerback, or go complete wild card and select a quarterback.
A cornerback selection would help keep some of the natural slotting in the top 10 alive. The selection of a quarterback might be a curveball for the Raiders at No. 7. Either way, the Lions have done a fairly good job of masking their intentions if this pick isn’t a cornerback.
7. What if the Las Vegas Raiders don’t like their quarterback options at No. 7?
If this happens, Las Vegas is expected to default to following its board and pick the best player available. Teams surrounding the Raiders believe that could be an offensive tackle reach or even a pricey selection of Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, who most project as a guard. This avenue would also open up a trade-back possibility for the Raiders. If they don’t want to reach for a lineman? The best available cornerback is being stapled to them by other teams.
8. There’s no way the Atlanta Falcons pass on a defensive pick, right?
This depends on who is there for Atlanta. If Texas Tech edge Tyree Wilson gets to this point, it would be hard to see the Falcons passing. They also might not be out of the cornerback market, even after acquiring Jeff Okudah from the Detroit Lions. Conversely, the best offensive player on the board at this point would be Bijan Robinson, who the Falcons have a high grade on (like everyone else), but would seem duplicative with young and productive Tyler Allgeier already in the fold at running back. All in all, it puts the Falcons in a weird and slightly unpredictable spot at No. 8, and that seems to be reflected by the teams around them that don’t have a handle on what Atlanta values most in its slot.
9. If Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski is on the board, what are the odds the Chicago Bears pass on him at No. 9?
The chances seem pretty solid at this point, as virtually every team seems to be settling on Skoronski being a high-end guard rather than an outlier tackle. The closer the draft has gotten, the more real it has seemed that Chicago either hopes a high-end defensive player like Jalen Carter falls, or it takes an offensive tackle who fits the physical boxes at the position, like Tennessee’s Darnell Wright or Georgia’s Broderick Jones.
There is one caveat here: Rashawn Slater came out of Northwestern and didn’t have all the perfect attributes of an offensive tackle built in a laboratory. Given his NFL success and the intimate familiarity the Bears have with the Northwestern program, Chicago is a prime candidate to have a better handle on Skoronski’s projection than anyone else.
10. Would the Philadelphia Eagles take Bijan Robinson or Jalen Carter at No. 10?
Robinson and Carter have been popular names attached to the Eagles. There’s a strong likelihood that Philadelphia wouldn’t take either at 10. The Eagles don’t have a track record of prioritizing running backs in the first round of drafts (let alone in the top 10) under general manager Howie Roseman, who has found value at the position in the second round and beyond. And when it comes to Carter, the Eagles don’t have a deep track record of drafting players who have serious off-field concerns attached to them. Certainly there can be exceptions to every draft history, but this doesn’t feel like it. If anything, it seems more likely that Roseman tries to get other teams to move up to the No. 10 pick so he can stockpile more draft ammunition as he surrounds Jalen Hurts with drafted talent that isn’t extremely expensive.
In a nutshell, that’s what encompasses the potential chaos in the top 10 picks. It represents a reality that teams have accepted for weeks about this draft: This year, more than ever, it feels like everyone is going to have to be light on their toes and ready to pivot in the face of the unexpected.
