Keenan Allen will remain elite in Chargers offense
Patrick Daugherty, Denny Carter and Kyle Dvorchak make the case that Keenan Allen's post-draft ADP will rise, emphasizing his elite ability in the Chargers offense despite injuries limiting his 2022 fantasy production.
KYLE DVORCHAK: My second guy, Keenan Allen, wide receiver 25. Another one where I just don't get it. One, he's really good. Two, last year, I mean, what was it? It was a hamstring injury, I think, that just did not go away. We thought he was coming back. He never came back. We really only saw healthy Keenan Allen for weeks 11 through 17.
He was really good in that stretch. He averaged 84 yards a game, 7 and 1/2 catches. On a full, 17-game season, that's 128 catches for 1,400 yards, career numbers and elite wide receiver one numbers. And I mean, that's the most recent version of him we saw. He was also-- almost his most efficient self we saw. It was his highest yards per route run and his highest yards per target since 2018.
There was nothing except an injury. No efficiency metrics, no volume metrics, no pure fantasy production that would say you don't want him next year, outside of that first half of the season which he was injured for. But it's football. Everyone gets injured. That's just part of the game, and it's not something-- it's obviously not something that I expect to move into the next year.
He killed it in the second half of the season. And he goes behind Mike Williams, who's famously a not really good stylistic fit for Justin Herbert? [AUDIO OUT] bored with Keenan Allen because he's been so good for so long that people are just like, eh, whatever. Lump him in. It's like the Tyler Lockett thing, Brandin Cooks. Eh, just lump them in with these wide receiver 18, 19 guys.
But for the second half of the year, he was a clear wide receiver one. And the offense should be better now that they're not going to be just completely dumping off every single pass to Austin Ekeler and depressing Keenan Allen's ADOT. I think moving the ball farther down the field, given how low Justin Herbert's ADOT, nearly bottom of the league last year-- moving the ball further down field isn't moving it away from Keenan Allen. It's moving it more to the receiver.
So I'm even not worried about that. I think the offense is going to un-stagnate, and Keenan Allen's going to remain elite.
DENNY CARTER: I think you hit on it when you said Keenan Allen's boring. He's just boring. I mean, he's a slow slot guy. He sits down in zone coverage, and he gets pelted with 13 targets a game. And so you know what you're getting.
But he's not out there-- what do the kids say-- Mossing people downfield, OK? That's something he's never done, he will not do. But especially PPR-wise, he's a monster. So I agree with you that he should rise. But man, I don't know if he will.
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: Didn't someone take a 5 foot 9 corner in the first round, Kyle? He might Moss that guy.
DENNY CARTER: Oh yeah, Washington. Washington did.
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: That's right.
KYLE DVORCHAK: I assume Emmanuel Forbes is who you're talking about. He's really good. He's just short.
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: Maybe he'll Moss that guy. I think Keenan Allen is a no-brainer riser too. Because Quentin Johnston arrives, who's game does he cannibalize? No secret, it's Mike Williams, not Keenan Allen. And when it comes to injury histories, who's one of the only receivers with more a concerning injury history than Keenan Allen? Mr. Michael Williams, whose back just goes out every-- every single time Mike Williams jumps, he insists on landing directly on his back.
DENNY CARTER: Some guys-- OK, some guys don't know how to fall, and we see this over and over and over again. And some guys do know how to fall. You know who knows how to fall? Justin Jefferson. That guy knows
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: That's true.
DENNY CARTER: --how to fall. He cannot get hurt because he falls beautifully and gracefully. And I've always wanted to say this on a podcast. You know who is the worst faller of all time? I know we're talking about rises and fallers, OK? Worst faller of all time is in the NBA. It's Zion. It's--
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: Oh yeah--
DENNY CARTER: --Zion Williamson.
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: --Zion Williamson. Because--
DENNY CARTER: This guy--
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: --Zion's just doesn't make gravitational sense.
DENNY CARTER: He doesn't even try to catch himself. He gets up in the air, someone takes out his leg, and he just goes down like a sack of bricks. And with no effort to try to guard himself. It's incredible.
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: Some guy-- Byron Buxton, famous for not knowing how to fall in Major League Baseball and just running directly into the center field wall every time he tries to make a catch. He's one of the best outfielders--
KYLE DVORCHAK: I respect that.
PATRICK DAUGHERTY: One of the best outfielders of the century, and they had to make him a DH because he could not just stop plowing directly into the wall. And the final point on Keenan Allen, too, who does Justin Herbert love throwing to all the time, no matter what? And the coaches have said in the past, he threw to him too much and relied on him as a crutch and then has continued to do that after they cemented his hamstring last year.
It's Keenan Allen. He just cannot stop throwing to Keenan Allen. And it's just too low, wide receiver 25. Another guy you look for reasons not to draft, but I think it's going to settle much more in like the 18 to 22 range.
DENNY CARTER: So I don't think that Keenan Allen should be going after Drake London. It could be just simply based on volume. I like Drake London as a prospect. I like what he did last year. Everything points to him being efficient and good, OK? I'm not saying that. But I mean, it's Arthur Smith's offense. There's no hope for pass volume there. And there's lots of hope for that kind of volume in the Chargers offense.