Jon Gruden's Raiders rebuild should feature taking a QB in 2019 NFL draft
The Oakland Raiders have done all they can to convince anyone listening that they are not in the market for a quarterback.
“We’ve got a young quarterback [in Derek Carr] that we think is a franchise quarterback that’s going to be 28 years old in March,” general manager Mike Mayock said at the NFL scouting combine in late February. “We are pretty happy with where we are … we feel like we are pretty good at the quarterback position.”
A day later, the Raiders’ head coach backed up his GM.
“Yeah, he is our franchise quarterback, yes,” Jon Gruden said of Carr. “[I’ll] try to make that clear.”
Despite those proclamations, the combination of the Raiders’ actions this offseason — not to mention an honest look at their current situation — suggests they should be looking at taking a quarterback in this year’s draft, whether it means holding tight at No. 4 to land Missouri’s Drew Lock or Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, or trading up to No. 1 to take Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray.
It makes sense for three reasons.
1. They’ve been taking a hard look at the QBs
At the owners meetings, Gruden told a group of Raiders beat writers that he planned on leaving the Bay Area to visit with Murray and Haskins and work them out this past week. And while Gruden characterized it as an exploratory mission, realize that NFL head coaches are busy, busy men, and that’s a lot of work for a head coach to go through if he wasn’t open to the possibility of taking a quarterback high.
Besides, Gruden also indicated at the owners meetings that he understands the importance of having dynamic quarterback play in the NFL.
“Obviously, you gotta get the quarterback playing at a blue level — if you get a blue-chip quarterback, you got a chance to win every game,” Gruden said, when asked about last year’s No. 1 pick, Baker Mayfield. “Forget about winning a couple games, you got a chance to win every night … and when you get that guy playing at a blue-chip level it certainly helps you. That is what we are going to try to do with Derek.”
2. Gruden likes rookie QB prospects, and Oakland has the picks to make a move
I know Gruden specifically mentioned Carr, but he was also exceptionally complimentary of Haskins and Murray at the owners meetings, enough to make you wonder whether he’d mind coaching either of them.
“Haskins has incredible production … fifty touchdown passes at Ohio State, think about that,” Gruden said. “I'm from Ohio. Ohio State didn't throw 50 touchdowns in 20 years.”
He was even more complimentary of Murray.
“What he did is astonishing to me,” Gruden said. “He took over for a Heisman Trophy winner and won the Heisman himself and got more done statistically. Phenomenal performance.”
Considering the Raiders’ insane draft capital (they have 10 picks this year, including six top-100 selections and two first-rounders next year) as well as the fact Gruden mentioned that at No. 4, the Raiders would be amenable to moving down or trading up, it’s hard not to wonder if Gruden covets Murray, especially because the OU quarterback possesses a skill — the ability to make something happen when plays break down, also known as “second-reaction ability” — that a certain opponent Gruden is very familiar with also happens to have.
All of which brings us to the third reason they should take a quarterback ...
3. The Raiders play in the same division as Patrick Mahomes
Mayock told me that he’s studying AFC West foes to build a roster that can win the division, and you don’t have to be Bill Walsh to figure out that means toppling the Chiefs, who have won the AFC West for the past three seasons.
Kansas City’s divisional streak figures to keep going too, largely because the Chiefs employ a 23-year-old quarterback who just became the youngest MVP in 35 years based on the strength of his ability to make second-reaction throws.
Gruden has taken notice. He loved Mahomes as a prospect in 2017, so yes, it definitely piqued my interest last week when he admitted to the Raiders’ beat writers that second-reaction ability is something he wants to see more of from Carr, who did a nice job protecting the ball last season but took 51 sacks, the third-most in the NFL.
“Hopefully, we can get Derek to create more on his own, with maybe a little more protection and maybe he can buy a little more time,” Gruden told Vic Tafur of The Athletic. “And then let Antonio [Brown] go over there [motions], then go over there and go over there and make a play or two.”
What Gruden is asking for is something that’s easier said than done, something most quarterbacks either have or they don’t. Carr, 28, has proven himself to be an established pocket passer, albeit one who’s a little too checkdown happy … but you know who has shown the innate ability to create when things break down?
Kyler Murray.
And you know who else has, albeit to a lesser degree?
Drew Lock.
The Raiders’ coach staff worked with the Missouri quarterback for a week at the Senior Bowl in January.
So instead of simply succumbing to the reality of being bested by the NFL’s version of John Wick year after year, wouldn’t the smart move for the Raiders be getting a second-reaction quarterback of their own?
Besides — and this would be the case for Haskins, a pocket passer in his own right — drafting a quarterback this year would also be practical. While Carr has big salary-cap numbers of $22.5 million this year, $21.5 million next year and $22.1 million in 2021, a quarterback on a rookie scale deal would have numbers of around $6 million this year, $7.4 million in 2020 and $8.9 million in 2021, with at least two more years of club control.
That means if the Raiders dealt Carr, that would not only result in additional draft capital, it would also result in the rough savings of nearly $27 million in 2020 and 2021, which would allow Mayock and Gruden to copy The Russell Wilson Plan (first copyrighted by the Seattle Seahawks in 2013) and use it to build the type of elite defense it takes to stop a Mahomes-led offense guided by Andy Reid.
Speaking of Reid, don’t count out his potential influence on any of this. He and Gruden are close friends, and before Gruden took the Raiders job, the two regularly talked quarterback play, strategy and where the league was headed. Seeing as how well things have worked out for the Chiefs over the past few years, I wouldn’t put it past Gruden to copy Reid’s plan by ditching a solid, reliable veteran in Carr — who is similar in some ways to Reid’s last quarterback, Alex Smith — and draft a stud of his own, just like Reid did with Mahomes.
To be fair, though, maybe that’s not the plan. Maybe the Raiders do believe in Carr, so much so that they’d ignore the money they could save — and the excitement they could generate in their new home, Las Vegas — by drafting a dynamic, young quarterback this year. Maybe Carr will take the next step in Year 2 of Gruden’s offense and become an elite quarterback.
Or, maybe the Raiders agree with me, and they swing for the fences, since catching the Chiefs and Mahomes will require some bold strokes. Elite quarterbacks typically win their divisions perennially, so if the Raiders want to speed their rebuild up — and slow down the Chiefs at the same time — they’d probably be wise to swing for a premium player of their own at the league’s most important position.
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