Jets vs. Dolphins Week 15 pick and prediction

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  • Miami Dolphins
    Miami Dolphins
    LiveTodayTomorrowvs--|
  • New York Jets
    New York Jets
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  • Zach Wilson
    Zach Wilson
    American football quarterback
Zach Wilson scrambles with ball in hand vs Saints
Zach Wilson scrambles with ball in hand vs Saints

JETS (3-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Spread: Dolphins -10

The Jets gave the Miami Dolphins a good run just one month ago, losing by a touchdown in a game that was actually tied when the fourth quarter began.

But there were a couple of important differences with that version of the Jets: They were much healthier back then and Zach Wilson wasn’t the quarterback.

It was veteran quarterback Joe Flacco who got the start that day to help the Jets combat the Dolphins’ blitz. Now it’s up to Wilson, coming off one of the most disappointing games of his short career, to prove he’s grown enough over the last few months to handle it.

The key, according to offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, is for Wilson to “not overthink it.”

“Not over analyzing anything,” LaFleur said. “Just take whatever play is called -- the good, the bad, whatever. Don’t make a bad play worse and just live in that moment and don’t overthink it and go through your progression. And if it’s there, rip it.”

Sounds like easy advice to follow, but it remains to be seen if that will actually help.

Wilson was not good last week against the Saints, raising some alarms considering the improvement the Jets hoped to see from him late in the season. At some point, Wilson is going to take the next step in his development and start to look like the franchise quarterback everyone expects him to be.

But it’s a tall order to expect him to do it without his top two receivers, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, against a defense that loves to blitz from all angles and sometimes have even veteran quarterbacks guessing about what to do.


Levi Wallace and Matt Milano of the Buffalo Bills tackle Michael Carter of the Jets after he made a reception in the first quarter. The Buffalo Bills play the New York Jets at Metlife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ on November 14, 2021. The Buffalo Bills Play The New York Jets At Metlife Stadium In East Rutherford Nj On November 14 2021
Levi Wallace and Matt Milano of the Buffalo Bills tackle Michael Carter of the Jets after he made a reception in the first quarter. The Buffalo Bills play the New York Jets at Metlife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ on November 14, 2021. The Buffalo Bills Play The New York Jets At Metlife Stadium In East Rutherford Nj On November 14 2021

Just look at what happened last Sunday against a good defense, but one not nearly as blitz-happy. Wilson was a dismal 19-for-42 for 202 yards and raised eyebrows with the number of short, easy passes he missed. Also noticeable was the lack of help he got, with huge drops from running back Ty Johnson and receiver Keelan Cole. And more often than not, it looked like there were very few open options down the field.

That puts Wilson in a difficult spot. He’s struggling to run the Jets’ offense as it is, and now he’s going to have to run it without some of his most trusted players. It will help that he’s expected to get running back Michael Carter back, but the hole in the receiving corps is worrisome.

And the Dolphins are just rolling with five straight wins before their bye last week. Their offense isn’t explosive, but Tua Tagovailoa has become very efficient, completing 80 percent of his passes over the last three weeks with five touchdowns and one interception. With the Jets’ lack of a pass rush, he could pick the young secondary apart.

Obviously, if this is the game where Wilson puts it all together and fulfills his promise, everything can change. He’s got the potential to be a dynamic player some day.

But probably not on this day, not with a depleted offense and backed by a struggling defense. These Jets probably can’t even give the Dolphins as good a game as they did last month.

Pick: Take the Dolphins, -10

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Jets 13

My record straight up: 9-4

My record against the spread: 7-6