Is Jay Cutler the key to your fantasy football title run in 2017?
The hype behind Jay Cutler signing with the Miami Dolphins primarily existed due to his success under head coach Adam Gase in 2015. Two years later, questions are circling regarding Cutler’s ability to replicate his success from two years ago.
Throughout his career, Cutler has never been an elite fantasy quarterback. Since taking over as a starting quarterback in 2007, Cutler has only been a top-10 fantasy quarterback once; when in 2008 he ranked 3rd in points by a quarterback according to USA Today’s “The Huddle”. With the exception of 2008, Cutler has ranked in the range of 11th – 24th. His seasons in the twenties primarily were a result of missing games due to injury. In Cutler’s one year under Gase in 2015, he ranked 20th, despite having the best season of his career.
Jay Cutler = Sam Bradford?
Let’s look at a player comparison for Cutler in the 2017 season. A player who underwent a similar situation is Sam Bradford. He was called on to lead the Vikings in 2016. Following a catastrophic knee injury to Teddy Bridgewater suffered on August 30th, Bradford stepped in the starting role and lead Minnesota to an 8-8 season.
Bradford, who of course is a different quarterback than Cutler, saw his 2016 campaign end with him ranked 23rd in points scored among quarterbacks. He accumulated 3877 yards with 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 552 passing attempts. In a Minnesota season plagued by an Adrian Peterson injury, Bradford was forced into a larger role than anticipated. That is why Bradford was asked to throw the ball the most times since his rookie season. Taking all factors into consideration, Bradford amassed a serviceable 2016 season. At the end of the day, he gave Minnesota a chance to make the playoffs.
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Cutler’s Outlook
Taking all of this into consideration, Cutler is poised to have a successful 2017 campaign. He’s been blessed with a sure-handed slot man in Jarvis Landry, a physically gifted outside receiver in DeVante Parker, and a premier deep threat in Kenny Stills as his receiving corps. Pair that trio with the workhorse Jay Ajayi and Julius Thomas at tight end and this offense is capable of being top-10.
For you sabermetric guys out there, according to Pro Football Reference, the Dolphins ranked 8th in yards per play, 6th in yards gained per pass attempt, and 8th in yards gained per rush attempt. So technically, this was a top-10 offense, and Cutler can definitely step in and keep the pace from 2016. Here’s the issue for all you fantasy owners out there, this offensive success from the 2016 Dolphins didn’t equate to points, which in turn, didn’t equate to fantasy football success. For example, despite the numbers put up by the offense, Tannehill ranked 22nd in points per game. Therefore, that doesn’t bode well for Cutler’s potential fantasy production in 2017.
Should you draft Cutler?
The overwhelming sentiment surrounding the 2017 Dolphins offense is that the ground game will dominate. This will allow Cutler, in certain instances, to let loose and let his big arm make plays. With that being said, Cutler projects in the range of 20th 25th. The best-case scenario for Cutler in a fantasy sense would be for him to become really comfortable in the offense. Then he will begin to make high level plays with his arm at high volume. This could put him in the 15th-20th range. Overall, Cutler ought to be considered as a fringe QB2, strong QB3 option for your fantasy team in 2017. With Cutler’s talent, instincts, and second year under Gase, he just may blossom into a solid QB2 and be the deep sleeper that takes you to fantasy football immortality.
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