As Han Solo once said, “Never tell me the odds.”
Nobody told Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs that he had less than a one percent chance to score when he took a handoff from the Raiders’ 27-yard line in Detroit’s Week 8 win. Less than half of one percent, according to Next Gen Stats, based on play call, formation and the defensive alignment at the snap.
Next Gen Stats determined that the play had just a 0.4 percent chance of resulting in a touchdown when Gibbs got the ball. One sweet bounce cut to the right and instant acceleration away from several would-be tacklers proved that the odds mean nothing to the talented Lions rookie.
Zebra Technologies, the folks behind Next Gen Stats, added this context on the Gibbs touchdown run,
Jahmyr Gibbs had just a 0.4% probability of reaching the endzone on his 27-yard score. He gained +23 RYOE on the play. The width of the Lions offensive formation was 15.6 yards. The Raiders defense matched with a width of 19.6 yards.
The offensive line and receivers deserve credit for blocking the play well, and Gibbs cashed in the extremely unlikely lottery ticket of a touchdown.