Jags projected to win AFC South in early predictions by ESPN
The Jacksonville Jaguars met some grim milestones in 2020. Not only did they register the worst record in franchise history, they also came away from the season with the NFL’s worst record. With stats like that, it feels like the only way to go is up for the team — and the path to improvement will now include a new regime.
With the conference championship games coming up in addition to Super Bowl LV, no major media outlet has really looked past this season yet to make divisional predictions for 2021 until recently.
ESPN’s Ben Barnwell put together his super-early playoff seed predictions this week, which featured several interesting takes. However, none were more interesting than his prediction for the AFC South, as he had the Jags going from worst to first.
While there are a lot of moving pieces within the organization after the team named Urban Meyer their lead guy, the Jags have a lot of useful resources that can help them get significantly better. That includes a clear path to Trevor Lawrence in the draft, 10 other draft picks in April and the most projected cap space in the NFL. Nobody can dispute the importance of the aforementioned assets and how they could help the Jags make significant progress.
Barnwell also pointed out several examples of how one and two-win teams of the past got drastically better the following year. Those examples were the 2013 Houston Texans, 2013 Kansas City Chiefs, and 2007 Miami Dolphins. Each were either one or two-win teams who jumped to records of 9-7, 11-5, 11-5, and 11-5, respectively.
Barnwell went on to point out a key variable for each of those teams which the Jags share: They upgraded their head coach and quarterback positions following their struggles.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
In the ultimate reminder of how quickly things can change, the 2007 Dolphins went 1-15 in a division with the 16-0 Patriots. Anybody who picked the 2008 Dolphins to win the division in print would have been immediately fired, but after Tom Brady got hurt and the Dolphins harnessed the power of both the Wildcat and Chad Pennington, Miami won the AFC East. Changes in the NFL come faster than anybody expects.
Each of the teams I mentioned upgraded its quarterback and swapped out its coach. Jacksonville is doing that, and while Urban Meyer might not turn out to be an effective NFL coach, he has had success everywhere he has gone at the college level. Presumptive No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence would seem to be a dramatic upgrade on the combination of Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon at quarterback, and the Jags have the offensive line to help keep him afloat. They have nearly $76 million in cap space in a market in which no team has money. They could add all kinds of help in free agency in March.
Jags fans have been paying close attention to the turmoil in the AFC South, and Barnwell’s predictions factored them into consideration. The Colts will be losing Philip Rivers to retirement and their offensive coordinator, Nick Sirianni, to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Texans may have to trade away a disgruntled Deshaun Watson. Lastly, the Tennessee Titans lost their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, too.
The Jags have a lot of needs to address this season but if they keep adding while the rest of the division is enduring key subtractions, then Barnwell might be onto something. Before we get to that point, though, some key issues, like who is named to the coaching staff, as well as the additions the Jags make in free-agency and the draft, will need to be sorted out.
