High Value RB Touches: Hunt's Week 11 role

Hayden Winks
·12 min read



Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.

Week 11 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player

Early Downs

Third Down

Inside 10

Passing Situation Targets

ARI Kenyan Drake

14

2

2

1

ARI Chase Edmonds

5

1

1

2

ATL Todd Gurley

10

0

0

0

ATL Brian Hill

4

0

0

0

ATL Ito Smith

1

0

0

0

ATL Keith Smith

1

0

0

0

BAL J.K. Dobbins

13

4

1

2

BAL Gus Edwards

3

0

0

0

BAL Mark Ingram

2

0

0

0

BAL Patrick Ricard

1

0

1

0

CAR Mike Davis

18

3

3

1

CAR Rodney Smith

7

1

0

0

CAR Alex Armah

1

0

0

0

CIN Giovani Bernard

14

0

2

0

CIN Samaje Perine

6

1

1

1

CLE Nick Chubb

20

0

0

0

CLE Kareem Hunt

9

4

4

1

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

20

3

3

1

DAL Tony Pollard

4

1

0

0

DEN Phillip Lindsay

15

1

0

0

DEN Melvin Gordon

12

2

3

0

DET Adrian Peterson

8

0

0

0

DET Kerryon Johnson

7

4

0

2

GB Aaron Jones

14

0

1

0

GB Jamaal Williams

4

2

1

1

HOU Duke Johnson

13

2

0

1

HOU C.J. Prosise

5

0

0

0

IND Jonathan Taylor

21

5

0

3

IND Nyheim Hines

7

2

2

3

IND Jordan Wilkins

3

2

0

1

JAX James Robinson

17

2

0

0

JAX Devine Ozigbo

1

1

0

2

JAX Dare Ogunbowale

1

1

0

1

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

16

0

1

0

KC Le'Veon Bell

8

0

1

0

KC Darrel Williams

3

0

0

3

LAC Kalen Ballage

23

2

1

0

LAC Joshua Kelley

5

1

1

0

LAC Troymaine Pope

4

1

1

0

LV Josh Jacobs

18

0

4

0

LV Devontae Booker

6

0

1

0

MIA Salvon Ahmed

16

2

2

6

MIA Matt Breida

2

0

0

0

MIA Patrick Laird

0

2

0

2

MIN Dalvin Cook

30

2

5

4

MIN Alexander Mattison

1

0

1

0

MIN C.J. Ham

1

0

0

0

NE Damien Harris

13

0

1

2

NE James White

11

3

0

7

NE Rex Burkhead

4

3

2

1

NO Alvin Kamara

13

1

2

1

NO Latavius Murray

13

1

0

0

NYJ Frank Gore

17

0

3

0

NYJ Lamical Perine

9

0

1

1

NYJ Ty Johnson

3

3

0

4

PHI Miles Sanders

21

0

1

0

PHI Boston Scott

7

1

0

0

PIT James Conner

13

2

0

1

PIT Benny Snell

5

2

1

0

PIT Anthony McFarland

3

0

0

0

SEA Carlos Hyde

13

4

1

2

SEA Bo Scarbrough

6

0

0

0

SEA DeeJay Dallas

2

1

0

2

TEN Derrick Henry

29

1

1

0

TEN D'Onta Foreman

1

0

0

0

TEN Jeremy McNichols

0

1

0

1

WAS Antonio Gibson

16

2

3

0

WAS J.D. McKissic

7

3

0

2

WAS Peyton Barber

7

1

1

0

Week 11 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player

Garbage Rate

Garbage Touch

Total Touches

Jamal Agnew

83%

5

6

Joshua Kelley

83%

5

6

Marvin Jones

67%

4

6

Benny Snell

57%

4

7

Eric Ebron

57%

4

7

Latavius Murray

57%

8

14

Frank Gore

56%

10

18

Denzel Mims

50%

4

8

Kareem Hunt

50%

7

14

Russell Gage

50%

6

12

Taysom Hill

50%

5

10

High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player

High Value

Inside 10

Targets

Carries

Opps

High Value %

Last 4 Games

1. J.D. McKissic

11.3

0.3

11.0

5.7

16.7

68%

3

2. Alvin Kamara

9.3

2.3

7.0

10.5

17.5

53%

4

3. Kalen Ballage

8.3

2.3

6.0

16.3

22.3

37%

3

4. Giovani Bernard

7.3

2.0

5.3

10.7

16.0

46%

3

5. Dalvin Cook

7.0

3.5

3.5

27.3

30.8

23%

4

6. Leonard Fournette

6.0

1.0

5.0

8.0

13.0

46%

3

7. Aaron Jones

5.7

0.7

5.0

12.7

17.7

32%

3

8. David Montgomery

5.5

1.5

4.0

17.5

21.5

26%

2

9. Miles Sanders

5.5

0.5

5.0

15.5

20.5

27%

2

10. Nyheim Hines

5.5

1.0

4.5

6.3

10.8

51%

4

11. D'Andre Swift

5.3

0.7

4.7

11.7

16.3

33%

3

12. Jerick McKinnon

5.3

1.7

3.7

11.0

14.7

36%

3

13. DeeJay Dallas

5.3

2.0

3.3

7.0

10.3

51%

4

14. Antonio Gibson

5.0

2.0

3.0

11.7

14.7

34%

3

15. Jamaal Williams

5.0

1.0

4.0

9.7

13.7

37%

3

16. Kenyan Drake

5.0

2.0

3.0

13.5

16.5

30%

2

17. Ronald Jones

5.0

1.7

3.3

11.0

14.3

35%

3

18. Troymaine Pope

5.0

0.5

4.5

6.5

11.0

45%

2

19. Mike Davis

4.8

1.0

3.8

10.0

13.8

35%

4

20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

4.3

1.0

3.3

8.3

11.7

37%

3

21. Ezekiel Elliott

4.3

2.0

2.3

19.3

21.7

20%

3

22. Kareem Hunt

4.3

1.7

2.7

15.3

18.0

24%

3

23. Josh Jacobs

4.3

2.5

1.8

20.8

22.5

19%

4

24. Jonathan Taylor

4.3

1.5

2.8

11.5

14.3

30%

4

25. Rex Burkhead

4.3

1.3

3.0

7.0

10.0

43%

4

26. Duke Johnson

4.0

0.7

3.3

13.3

16.7

24%

3

27. Salvon Ahmed

4.0

1.7

2.3

13.3

15.7

26%

3

28. Chase Edmonds

3.7

0.3

3.3

11.7

15.0

24%

3

29. Wayne Gallman

3.7

2.0

1.7

14.7

16.3

22%

3

30. Melvin Gordon

3.5

1.0

2.5

10.0

12.5

28%

4

31. Devin Singletary

3.3

0.3

3.0

6.7

9.7

34%

3

32. James Robinson

3.3

0.3

3.0

21.7

24.7

14%

3

33. Zack Moss

3.3

1.7

1.7

10.0

11.7

29%

3

34. Gus Edwards

3.0

1.8

1.3

9.3

10.5

29%

4

35. Malcolm Brown

3.0

1.0

2.0

8.0

10.0

30%

2

36. Adrian Peterson

2.8

0.8

2.0

6.0

8.0

34%

4

37. James Conner

2.8

0.3

2.5

12.5

15.0

18%

4

38. Joshua Kelley

2.8

0.8

2.0

6.8

8.8

31%

4

39. JaMycal Hasty

2.7

1.0

1.7

6.3

8.0

33%

3

40. Darrell Henderson

2.5

1.0

1.5

7.5

9.0

28%

2

41. Derrick Henry

2.5

1.3

1.3

21.5

22.8

11%

4

42. J.K. Dobbins

2.5

0.5

2.0

11.8

13.8

18%

4

43. Boston Scott

2.3

0.3

2.0

7.7

9.7

24%

3

44. Frank Gore

2.3

1.0

1.3

12.3

13.7

17%

3

45. Samaje Perine

2.3

1.0

1.3

7.3

8.7

27%

3

46. Todd Gurley

2.3

1.0

1.3

15.0

16.3

14%

3

47. Jordan Wilkins

2.0

0.8

1.3

10.8

12.0

17%

4

48. Le'Veon Bell

2.0

0.3

1.7

5.7

7.3

27%

3

49. Lamical Perine

2.0

0.3

1.7

7.3

9.0

22%

3

50. Damien Harris

1.8

1.3

0.5

15.8

16.3

11%

4

51. Latavius Murray

1.8

0.0

1.8

9.8

11.5

15%

4

52. Phillip Lindsay

1.8

0.0

1.8

8.5

10.3

17%

4

53. Cam Akers

1.5

1.0

0.5

9.5

10.0

15%

2

54. Brian Hill

1.3

0.0

1.3

7.7

9.0

15%

3

55. Tony Pollard

1.3

0.0

1.3

7.0

8.3

16%

3

56. Alex Collins

1.0

0.0

1.0

6.5

7.5

13%

2

57. Devontae Booker

1.0

0.3

0.8

8.5

9.3

11%

4

58. Mark Ingram

1.0

0.0

1.0

3.5

4.5

22%

2

59. Nick Chubb

1.0

0.5

0.5

19.5

20.0

5%

2

60. Peyton Barber

1.0

0.5

0.5

5.0

5.5

18%

2

61. Alexander Mattison

0.5

0.5

0.0

4.5

4.5

11%

4

62. D'Onta Foreman

0.5

0.3

0.3

4.5

4.8

11%

4

63. Rodney Smith

0.5

0.0

0.5

5.5

6.0

8%

2

64. Alfred Morris

0.3

0.0

0.3

8.3

8.7

4%

3

65. Benny Snell

0.3

0.3

0.0

4.3

4.3

8%

3

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Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Team Player

Neutral

Trailing

Leading

Game Script Bump

MIN Dalvin Cook

57%

47%

55%

JAX James Robinson

49%

34%

NA

TEN Derrick Henry

45%

30%

44%

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

41%

20%

31%

NYJ Frank Gore

38%

22%

41%

Positive

ARI Chase Edmonds

34%

11%

NA

LV Josh Jacobs

33%

NA

51%

Positive

NE Damien Harris

33%

18%

31%

BUF Devin Singletary

33%

8%

12%

NO Alvin Kamara

32%

NA

23%

HOU Duke Johnson

32%

NA

33%

CLE Kareem Hunt

31%

25%

33%

WAS Antonio Gibson

30%

19%

30%

SF Jerick McKinnon

30%

20%

NA

ATL Todd Gurley

29%

6%

35%

Positive

CIN Giovani Bernard

29%

21%

32%

PIT James Conner

28%

18%

23%

TB Ronald Jones

28%

18%

31%

NYG Wayne Gallman

26%

NA

27%

PHI Boston Scott

24%

9%

29%

NYJ Lamical Perine

24%

20%

6%

CAR Mike Davis

23%

17%

29%

DEN Melvin Gordon

22%

17%

23%

BAL J.K. Dobbins

21%

17%

27%

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

21%

21%

13%

SF JaMycal Hasty

21%

8%

NA

BAL Lamar Jackson

20%

15%

25%

IND Jonathan Taylor

19%

23%

22%

NE Rex Burkhead

19%

14%

16%

BAL Gus Edwards

19%

11%

14%

BUF Josh Allen

19%

NA

13%

WAS J.D. McKissic

19%

35%

15%

Negative

CHI Cordarrelle Patterson

19%

7%

17%

TB Leonard Fournette

18%

22%

23%

IND Jordan Wilkins

17%

9%

32%

DET Adrian Peterson

17%

14%

13%

LV Devontae Booker

17%

33%

15%

Negative

DEN Phillip Lindsay

16%

16%

19%

ARI Kyler Murray

16%

9%

NA

HOU Deshaun Watson

15%

NA

14%

IND Nyheim Hines

15%

19%

12%

NO Latavius Murray

14%

NA

23%

KC Le'Veon Bell

14%

0%

12%

LAC Joshua Kelley

13%

15%

8%

SEA DeeJay Dallas

13%

15%

24%

DAL Tony Pollard

12%

9%

16%

NO Taysom Hill

12%

NA

15%

BUF Zack Moss

12%

NA

23%

ATL Brian Hill

11%

19%

18%

NE Cam Newton

10%

13%

25%

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 12

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks

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Even after all this time, after all the success, after basking in the Florida sun, Brady will not relent. Because, at this point, Brady’s career is about more than sporting success. It’s about more than a legacy. It’s about more than passing yards or touchdowns. It’s more existential. This is a man – as foolhardy as it is – in a battle against time. And he believes – truly believes – that he’s going to win. On Sunday, time decided football was finally over for Brees. Not for Tom. For now, Tom keeps winning. MVP of the week Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur have developed a formidable relationship. Photograph: Stacy Revere/Getty Images Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers. Artists do not like to acquiesce to convention – and make no mistake, Rodgers is an artist. But give him this: he was willing to swallow his ego when Matt LaFleur walked through the door as the team’s head coach prior to last season; he was willing to self-evaluate; he was willing to adjust. And in doing so, he has led his team to back-to-back NFC Championships. Only this time it feels real. Rodgers was at his best on Saturday, throwing for 296 yards and two touchdowns against the league’s fiercest defense, with a rushing touchdown tacked on for good measure. But this was not a vintage Rodgers display. It was the new, improved, rhythm-based Rodgers delivering exactly the kind of team-based performance the Packers needed. It’s hard to overstate how sterile things were at the end of the Rodgers-Mike McCarthy era. Rodgers would drain the play clock to nothing (a favourite pastime of his) and then tap dance in the pocket – sometimes for better but, by the end, it was often for worse. Matt LaFleur has brought more urgency to Rodgers’ play. There are the same old, Rodgers-approved staples, but they’re delivered from fresh looks. Yet while it’s LaFleur’s overall design, Rodgers is still the one running the show: he is modulating the tempo of offense – sometimes fast, sometimes slow – in order to keep the defense off-balance and to give himself favourable looks. It has been this way all season – it’s why Rodgers will likely walk away with the MVP award. But it was fair to wonder if he would revert to the old way against a championship-caliber defense in the playoffs. He did in bursts last season. He didn’t this year. If Rodgers maintains this level – and why wouldn’t he? – the Packers will be playing for it all in February. Stat of the week Chad Henne: 6/8, 68 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception. Only Andy Reid would have enough faith in his system to continue his overly aggressive style with his starting quarterback knocked out of the game. And not just any quarterback, but a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. And only Reid would have enough faith in Chad Henne, a career backup, to call a rollout, pass play on his own side of the field on fourth-and-inches with the game on the line: GAME!📺: https://t.co/F3ZHh8BQRq pic.twitter.com/9oJ5AyXemg— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 17, 2021 The Chiefs lost Mahomes early in the second-half to a concussion. Reid did not blink. It was the Browns who adapted, switching their defensive scheme and betting that Henne could not squeeze throws into tight windows the same way that Mahomes would. Henne delivered. He wasn’t perfect. But he was good enough, making plays inside and outside of Reid’s carefully crafted structure, and guiding the Chiefs to an AFC title game after a fluke-break – Mahomes hitting his head on the turf – almost took a cruise-control-type victory away. And now for a week of concussion talk. The league needs its most telegenic, likable star on the biggest stage. Will Mahomes be ready for the title game? Can the Chiefs win with Henne? Video of the week BILLS PICK-SIX ON LAMAR 😱(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/TcOSmHzg21— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 17, 2021 Lamar Jackson’s pick-six down in the redzone will haunt the Ravens all offseason. It was an extraordinary play from Taron Johnson, the Bills defensive back, and a sloppy misread from Jackson, one that effectively ended the Ravens’ season. Driving down the field to tie the game, Jackson’s interception turned a 10-3, with the Ravens in touchdown range and the game heading to the fourth quarter, into a 17-3 deficit that the Ravens could not recover from. Quote of the week “Go win the whole thing” – John Harbaugh to Sean McDermott after the Bills beat the Ravens 17-3. The Bills certainly have the right formula. Sean McDermott has built his group in the same image as the Panthers side that he helped guide to Super Bowl 50: A high-variance, big-armed, athletic quarterback paired with a fast, swarming defense that generates a ton of negative plays. McDermott was the defensive coordinator back then. Now, as the head coach, he will be looking to take his team one step further. Elsewhere around the league - Urban Meyer is back. Only this time, he’s gone pro. Not two years after another round of ‘I will never coach again’ talk and a second health-induced retirement, Meyer has decided to leave college football for the NFL, taking up the head coach role in Jacksonville. Meyer is a college football legend, albeit one with a scandal sheet that would make even Donald Trump blush. He was one of the pioneers of the spread-option style that has helped transform the sport since the start of the decade. If nothing else, his first crack at the NFL will be fascinating to watch. - Meanwhile, things have somehow gone from bad to worse for the Texans. After a week of leaks, Deshaun Watson put his name to the disgruntlement in Houston. “I was on a 2 then I took it to 10,” Watson tweeted Friday, nearly identical to an ESPN report from last weekend which said Watson’s anger level was a “2” when the team traded DeAndre Hopkins last year. “There is a growing sense from people in and around the Texans’ organization that Deshaun Watson has played his last snap for the team,” ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Sunday.

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