High Value RB Touches: Hunt's Week 11 role

Hayden Winks
·12 min read



Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.

Week 11 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player

Early Downs

Third Down

Inside 10

Passing Situation Targets

ARI Kenyan Drake

14

2

2

1

ARI Chase Edmonds

5

1

1

2

ATL Todd Gurley

10

0

0

0

ATL Brian Hill

4

0

0

0

ATL Ito Smith

1

0

0

0

ATL Keith Smith

1

0

0

0

BAL J.K. Dobbins

13

4

1

2

BAL Gus Edwards

3

0

0

0

BAL Mark Ingram

2

0

0

0

BAL Patrick Ricard

1

0

1

0

CAR Mike Davis

18

3

3

1

CAR Rodney Smith

7

1

0

0

CAR Alex Armah

1

0

0

0

CIN Giovani Bernard

14

0

2

0

CIN Samaje Perine

6

1

1

1

CLE Nick Chubb

20

0

0

0

CLE Kareem Hunt

9

4

4

1

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

20

3

3

1

DAL Tony Pollard

4

1

0

0

DEN Phillip Lindsay

15

1

0

0

DEN Melvin Gordon

12

2

3

0

DET Adrian Peterson

8

0

0

0

DET Kerryon Johnson

7

4

0

2

GB Aaron Jones

14

0

1

0

GB Jamaal Williams

4

2

1

1

HOU Duke Johnson

13

2

0

1

HOU C.J. Prosise

5

0

0

0

IND Jonathan Taylor

21

5

0

3

IND Nyheim Hines

7

2

2

3

IND Jordan Wilkins

3

2

0

1

JAX James Robinson

17

2

0

0

JAX Devine Ozigbo

1

1

0

2

JAX Dare Ogunbowale

1

1

0

1

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

16

0

1

0

KC Le'Veon Bell

8

0

1

0

KC Darrel Williams

3

0

0

3

LAC Kalen Ballage

23

2

1

0

LAC Joshua Kelley

5

1

1

0

LAC Troymaine Pope

4

1

1

0

LV Josh Jacobs

18

0

4

0

LV Devontae Booker

6

0

1

0

MIA Salvon Ahmed

16

2

2

6

MIA Matt Breida

2

0

0

0

MIA Patrick Laird

0

2

0

2

MIN Dalvin Cook

30

2

5

4

MIN Alexander Mattison

1

0

1

0

MIN C.J. Ham

1

0

0

0

NE Damien Harris

13

0

1

2

NE James White

11

3

0

7

NE Rex Burkhead

4

3

2

1

NO Alvin Kamara

13

1

2

1

NO Latavius Murray

13

1

0

0

NYJ Frank Gore

17

0

3

0

NYJ Lamical Perine

9

0

1

1

NYJ Ty Johnson

3

3

0

4

PHI Miles Sanders

21

0

1

0

PHI Boston Scott

7

1

0

0

PIT James Conner

13

2

0

1

PIT Benny Snell

5

2

1

0

PIT Anthony McFarland

3

0

0

0

SEA Carlos Hyde

13

4

1

2

SEA Bo Scarbrough

6

0

0

0

SEA DeeJay Dallas

2

1

0

2

TEN Derrick Henry

29

1

1

0

TEN D'Onta Foreman

1

0

0

0

TEN Jeremy McNichols

0

1

0

1

WAS Antonio Gibson

16

2

3

0

WAS J.D. McKissic

7

3

0

2

WAS Peyton Barber

7

1

1

0

Week 11 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

Player

Garbage Rate

Garbage Touch

Total Touches

Jamal Agnew

83%

5

6

Joshua Kelley

83%

5

6

Marvin Jones

67%

4

6

Benny Snell

57%

4

7

Eric Ebron

57%

4

7

Latavius Murray

57%

8

14

Frank Gore

56%

10

18

Denzel Mims

50%

4

8

Kareem Hunt

50%

7

14

Russell Gage

50%

6

12

Taysom Hill

50%

5

10

High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player

High Value

Inside 10

Targets

Carries

Opps

High Value %

Last 4 Games

1. J.D. McKissic

11.3

0.3

11.0

5.7

16.7

68%

3

2. Alvin Kamara

9.3

2.3

7.0

10.5

17.5

53%

4

3. Kalen Ballage

8.3

2.3

6.0

16.3

22.3

37%

3

4. Giovani Bernard

7.3

2.0

5.3

10.7

16.0

46%

3

5. Dalvin Cook

7.0

3.5

3.5

27.3

30.8

23%

4

6. Leonard Fournette

6.0

1.0

5.0

8.0

13.0

46%

3

7. Aaron Jones

5.7

0.7

5.0

12.7

17.7

32%

3

8. David Montgomery

5.5

1.5

4.0

17.5

21.5

26%

2

9. Miles Sanders

5.5

0.5

5.0

15.5

20.5

27%

2

10. Nyheim Hines

5.5

1.0

4.5

6.3

10.8

51%

4

11. D'Andre Swift

5.3

0.7

4.7

11.7

16.3

33%

3

12. Jerick McKinnon

5.3

1.7

3.7

11.0

14.7

36%

3

13. DeeJay Dallas

5.3

2.0

3.3

7.0

10.3

51%

4

14. Antonio Gibson

5.0

2.0

3.0

11.7

14.7

34%

3

15. Jamaal Williams

5.0

1.0

4.0

9.7

13.7

37%

3

16. Kenyan Drake

5.0

2.0

3.0

13.5

16.5

30%

2

17. Ronald Jones

5.0

1.7

3.3

11.0

14.3

35%

3

18. Troymaine Pope

5.0

0.5

4.5

6.5

11.0

45%

2

19. Mike Davis

4.8

1.0

3.8

10.0

13.8

35%

4

20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

4.3

1.0

3.3

8.3

11.7

37%

3

21. Ezekiel Elliott

4.3

2.0

2.3

19.3

21.7

20%

3

22. Kareem Hunt

4.3

1.7

2.7

15.3

18.0

24%

3

23. Josh Jacobs

4.3

2.5

1.8

20.8

22.5

19%

4

24. Jonathan Taylor

4.3

1.5

2.8

11.5

14.3

30%

4

25. Rex Burkhead

4.3

1.3

3.0

7.0

10.0

43%

4

26. Duke Johnson

4.0

0.7

3.3

13.3

16.7

24%

3

27. Salvon Ahmed

4.0

1.7

2.3

13.3

15.7

26%

3

28. Chase Edmonds

3.7

0.3

3.3

11.7

15.0

24%

3

29. Wayne Gallman

3.7

2.0

1.7

14.7

16.3

22%

3

30. Melvin Gordon

3.5

1.0

2.5

10.0

12.5

28%

4

31. Devin Singletary

3.3

0.3

3.0

6.7

9.7

34%

3

32. James Robinson

3.3

0.3

3.0

21.7

24.7

14%

3

33. Zack Moss

3.3

1.7

1.7

10.0

11.7

29%

3

34. Gus Edwards

3.0

1.8

1.3

9.3

10.5

29%

4

35. Malcolm Brown

3.0

1.0

2.0

8.0

10.0

30%

2

36. Adrian Peterson

2.8

0.8

2.0

6.0

8.0

34%

4

37. James Conner

2.8

0.3

2.5

12.5

15.0

18%

4

38. Joshua Kelley

2.8

0.8

2.0

6.8

8.8

31%

4

39. JaMycal Hasty

2.7

1.0

1.7

6.3

8.0

33%

3

40. Darrell Henderson

2.5

1.0

1.5

7.5

9.0

28%

2

41. Derrick Henry

2.5

1.3

1.3

21.5

22.8

11%

4

42. J.K. Dobbins

2.5

0.5

2.0

11.8

13.8

18%

4

43. Boston Scott

2.3

0.3

2.0

7.7

9.7

24%

3

44. Frank Gore

2.3

1.0

1.3

12.3

13.7

17%

3

45. Samaje Perine

2.3

1.0

1.3

7.3

8.7

27%

3

46. Todd Gurley

2.3

1.0

1.3

15.0

16.3

14%

3

47. Jordan Wilkins

2.0

0.8

1.3

10.8

12.0

17%

4

48. Le'Veon Bell

2.0

0.3

1.7

5.7

7.3

27%

3

49. Lamical Perine

2.0

0.3

1.7

7.3

9.0

22%

3

50. Damien Harris

1.8

1.3

0.5

15.8

16.3

11%

4

51. Latavius Murray

1.8

0.0

1.8

9.8

11.5

15%

4

52. Phillip Lindsay

1.8

0.0

1.8

8.5

10.3

17%

4

53. Cam Akers

1.5

1.0

0.5

9.5

10.0

15%

2

54. Brian Hill

1.3

0.0

1.3

7.7

9.0

15%

3

55. Tony Pollard

1.3

0.0

1.3

7.0

8.3

16%

3

56. Alex Collins

1.0

0.0

1.0

6.5

7.5

13%

2

57. Devontae Booker

1.0

0.3

0.8

8.5

9.3

11%

4

58. Mark Ingram

1.0

0.0

1.0

3.5

4.5

22%

2

59. Nick Chubb

1.0

0.5

0.5

19.5

20.0

5%

2

60. Peyton Barber

1.0

0.5

0.5

5.0

5.5

18%

2

61. Alexander Mattison

0.5

0.5

0.0

4.5

4.5

11%

4

62. D'Onta Foreman

0.5

0.3

0.3

4.5

4.8

11%

4

63. Rodney Smith

0.5

0.0

0.5

5.5

6.0

8%

2

64. Alfred Morris

0.3

0.0

0.3

8.3

8.7

4%

3

65. Benny Snell

0.3

0.3

0.0

4.3

4.3

8%

3

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Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Team Player

Neutral

Trailing

Leading

Game Script Bump

MIN Dalvin Cook

57%

47%

55%

JAX James Robinson

49%

34%

NA

TEN Derrick Henry

45%

30%

44%

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

41%

20%

31%

NYJ Frank Gore

38%

22%

41%

Positive

ARI Chase Edmonds

34%

11%

NA

LV Josh Jacobs

33%

NA

51%

Positive

NE Damien Harris

33%

18%

31%

BUF Devin Singletary

33%

8%

12%

NO Alvin Kamara

32%

NA

23%

HOU Duke Johnson

32%

NA

33%

CLE Kareem Hunt

31%

25%

33%

WAS Antonio Gibson

30%

19%

30%

SF Jerick McKinnon

30%

20%

NA

ATL Todd Gurley

29%

6%

35%

Positive

CIN Giovani Bernard

29%

21%

32%

PIT James Conner

28%

18%

23%

TB Ronald Jones

28%

18%

31%

NYG Wayne Gallman

26%

NA

27%

PHI Boston Scott

24%

9%

29%

NYJ Lamical Perine

24%

20%

6%

CAR Mike Davis

23%

17%

29%

DEN Melvin Gordon

22%

17%

23%

BAL J.K. Dobbins

21%

17%

27%

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

21%

21%

13%

SF JaMycal Hasty

21%

8%

NA

BAL Lamar Jackson

20%

15%

25%

IND Jonathan Taylor

19%

23%

22%

NE Rex Burkhead

19%

14%

16%

BAL Gus Edwards

19%

11%

14%

BUF Josh Allen

19%

NA

13%

WAS J.D. McKissic

19%

35%

15%

Negative

CHI Cordarrelle Patterson

19%

7%

17%

TB Leonard Fournette

18%

22%

23%

IND Jordan Wilkins

17%

9%

32%

DET Adrian Peterson

17%

14%

13%

LV Devontae Booker

17%

33%

15%

Negative

DEN Phillip Lindsay

16%

16%

19%

ARI Kyler Murray

16%

9%

NA

HOU Deshaun Watson

15%

NA

14%

IND Nyheim Hines

15%

19%

12%

NO Latavius Murray

14%

NA

23%

KC Le'Veon Bell

14%

0%

12%

LAC Joshua Kelley

13%

15%

8%

SEA DeeJay Dallas

13%

15%

24%

DAL Tony Pollard

12%

9%

16%

NO Taysom Hill

12%

NA

15%

BUF Zack Moss

12%

NA

23%

ATL Brian Hill

11%

19%

18%

NE Cam Newton

10%

13%

25%

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 12

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks