High Value RB Touches: CEH's Role in Week 9

Hayden Winks
·14 min read



Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "High Value RB Touches & Game Script" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.

Week 9 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

Player

Early Downs

Third Down

Inside 10

Passing Situation Targets

ARI Chase Edmonds

26

1

0

1

ARI D.J. Foster

2

0

0

0

ATL Todd Gurley

20

1

1

0

ATL Brian Hill

8

1

0

0

ATL Keith Smith

0

1

0

0

BAL J.K. Dobbins

12

1

1

1

BAL Gus Edwards

10

3

5

0

BUF Zack Moss

9

2

1

0

BUF Devin Singletary

5

0

1

0

CAR Christian McCaffrey

22

5

3

5

CAR Mike Davis

6

1

0

5

CHI David Montgomery

13

2

1

2

CHI Ryan Nall

4

0

1

0

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

16

5

1

1

DAL Tony Pollard

9

2

0

0

DEN Phillip Lindsay

11

0

0

0

DEN Melvin Gordon

6

1

0

1

DET D'Andre Swift

18

0

2

2

DET Adrian Peterson

11

2

3

2

DET Kerryon Johnson

6

1

0

0

GB Aaron Jones

20

0

0

0

GB Tyler Ervin

10

3

1

1

GB Dexter Williams

2

0

0

0

HOU Duke Johnson

18

2

1

2

HOU David Johnson

2

1

0

0

IND Jordan Wilkins

13

0

0

1

IND Jonathan Taylor

7

1

2

0

IND Nyheim Hines

3

2

0

1

JAX James Robinson

24

2

1

0

JAX Chris Thompson

4

1

0

3

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

10

0

1

0

KC Le'Veon Bell

5

0

0

0

KC Darrel Williams

0

1

0

1

LAC Kalen Ballage

16

0

2

1

LAC Joshua Kelley

13

1

0

3

LAC Gabe Nabers

1

0

1

0

LV Josh Jacobs

14

1

1

0

LV Devontae Booker

8

0

0

0

LV Jalen Richard

0

2

0

1

MIA Jordan Howard

9

1

1

0

MIA Salvon Ahmed

7

0

0

0

MIA Patrick Laird

2

0

0

1

MIN Dalvin Cook

23

1

3

2

MIN Alexander Mattison

9

3

1

0

MIN Ameer Abdullah

1

0

0

1

NE Damien Harris

14

0

1

0

NE Rex Burkhead

13

2

2

1

NE James White

5

1

0

5

NO Alvin Kamara

14

1

3

0

NO Latavius Murray

9

3

0

0

NYG Wayne Gallman

16

0

1

0

NYG Alfred Morris

10

0

0

0

NYG Dion Lewis

2

2

0

2

NYG Elijhaa Penny

1

1

0

0

NYJ Frank Gore

13

1

0

0

NYJ Lamical Perine

6

2

0

2

PIT James Conner

9

1

0

1

PIT Anthony McFarland

4

1

0

0

PIT Benny Snell

2

0

0

0

SEA DeeJay Dallas

8

1

3

0

SEA Travis Homer

8

1

1

0

SEA Alex Collins

2

0

0

0

SF Jerick McKinnon

13

3

2

1

SF JaMycal Hasty

6

0

0

1

SF Kyle Juszczyk

1

0

0

0

TB Leonard Fournette

7

0

0

0

TB Ronald Jones

6

1

1

1

TEN Derrick Henry

19

2

0

0

TEN D'Onta Foreman

5

0

0

0

TEN Jeremy McNichols

0

2

0

0

WAS J.D. McKissic

13

4

0

8

WAS Antonio Gibson

9

0

1

1

Week 9 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

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High Value RB Touches

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "High Value Touches", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High-Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.

Player

High Value

Inside 10

Targets

Carries

Opps

High Value %

Last 4 Games

1. Christian McCaffrey

13.0

3.0

10.0

18.0

28.0

46%

1

2. Alvin Kamara

10.3

1.3

9.0

11.7

20.7

50%

3

3. Leonard Fournette

7.7

1.3

6.3

9.0

15.3

50%

3

4. J.D. McKissic

7.3

0.0

7.3

5.3

12.7

58%

3

5. Joe Mixon

7.0

4.0

3.0

18.0

21.0

33%

1

6. Myles Gaskin

7.0

2.0

5.0

18.0

23.0

30%

2

7. Dalvin Cook

6.5

4.0

2.5

26.0

28.5

23%

2

8. David Montgomery

6.5

2.0

4.5

17.0

21.5

30%

4

9. D'Andre Swift

6.5

2.0

4.5

10.5

15.0

43%

4

10. DeeJay Dallas

6.3

2.7

3.7

8.3

12.0

53%

3

11. Giovani Bernard

6.3

2.3

4.0

12.0

16.0

40%

3

12. Jamaal Williams

6.0

2.0

4.0

13.0

17.0

35%

3

13. Boston Scott

5.7

2.0

3.7

9.7

13.3

43%

3

14. Aaron Jones

5.5

0.5

5.0

12.5

17.5

31%

2

15. Justin Jackson

5.5

0.0

5.5

11.0

16.5

33%

2

16. James Robinson

5.3

1.3

4.0

19.7

23.7

23%

3

17. Ezekiel Elliott

5.3

1.0

4.3

15.3

19.5

27%

4

18. Clyde Edwards-Helaire

5.0

1.0

4.0

11.3

15.3

33%

4

19. Kalen Ballage

5.0

2.0

3.0

15.0

18.0

28%

1

20. Mike Davis

4.8

0.8

4.0

9.8

13.8

35%

4

21. Duke Johnson

4.7

1.0

3.7

7.0

10.7

44%

3

22. David Johnson

4.7

2.3

2.3

11.7

14.0

33%

3

23. Melvin Gordon

4.7

0.7

4.0

10.3

14.3

33%

3

24. Derrick Henry

4.5

2.5

2.0

20.3

22.3

20%

4

25. Ronald Jones

4.5

1.5

3.0

11.5

14.5

31%

4

26. Tyler Ervin

4.5

0.5

4.0

4.0

8.0

56%

2

27. Josh Jacobs

4.3

2.3

2.0

18.3

20.3

21%

3

28. Joshua Kelley

4.3

0.7

3.7

9.3

13.0

33%

3

29. Jonathan Taylor

4.3

1.3

3.0

9.7

12.7

34%

3

30. Chase Edmonds

4.0

0.0

4.0

11.7

15.7

26%

3

31. Carlos Hyde

4.0

0.0

4.0

15.0

19.0

21%

1

32. James Conner

4.0

1.3

2.8

16.0

18.8

21%

4

33. Jeff Wilson

4.0

2.0

2.0

17.0

19.0

21%

1

34. Kenyan Drake

4.0

2.0

2.0

17.0

19.0

21%

2

35. Kareem Hunt

4.0

0.7

3.3

15.0

18.3

22%

3

36. Todd Gurley

4.0

1.8

2.3

20.0

22.3

18%

4

37. Antonio Gibson

3.7

0.7

3.0

11.7

14.7

25%

3

38. Gus Edwards

3.7

2.7

1.0

13.7

14.7

25%

3

39. Wayne Gallman

3.7

1.0

2.7

12.0

14.7

25%

3

40. Jerick McKinnon

3.5

0.8

2.8

6.0

8.8

40%

4

41. Troymaine Pope

3.5

0.0

3.5

5.5

9.0

39%

2

42. Darrell Henderson

3.3

2.0

1.3

12.3

13.7

24%

3

43. Adrian Peterson

3.3

1.3

2.0

9.8

11.8

28%

4

44. Devin Singletary

3.3

0.5

2.8

8.5

11.3

29%

4

45. Chris Carson

3.0

1.0

2.0

5.0

7.0

43%

1

46. J.K. Dobbins

3.0

0.3

2.7

12.0

14.7

20%

3

47. Lamical Perine

3.0

0.3

2.7

8.7

11.3

26%

3

48. Raheem Mostert

3.0

1.0

2.0

17.0

19.0

16%

1

49. Zack Moss

2.8

1.3

1.5

8.8

10.3

27%

4

50. Malcolm Brown

2.7

0.3

2.3

7.3

9.7

28%

3

51. Brian Hill

2.5

0.3

2.3

7.8

10.0

25%

4

52. Devonta Freeman

2.5

1.0

1.5

10.5

12.0

21%

2

53. Latavius Murray

2.3

0.3

2.0

9.7

11.7

20%

3

54. Tony Pollard

2.3

0.0

2.3

8.5

10.8

21%

4

55. Corey Clement

2.0

0.5

1.5

3.5

5.0

40%

2

56. JaMycal Hasty

2.0

0.8

1.3

8.5

9.8

21%

4

57. Miles Sanders

2.0

0.0

2.0

9.0

11.0

18%

1

58. Phillip Lindsay

2.0

0.5

1.5

11.5

13.0

15%

4

59. Alexander Mattison

1.7

1.0

0.7

8.3

9.0

19%

3

60. Benny Snell

1.7

1.3

0.3

3.7

4.0

42%

3

61. Jordan Wilkins

1.7

0.3

1.3

10.7

12.0

14%

3

62. Le'Veon Bell

1.7

0.3

1.3

5.3

6.7

25%

3

63. Rex Burkhead

1.7

0.0

1.7

5.0

6.7

25%

3

64. Matt Breida

1.5

0.5

1.0

5.0

6.0

25%

2

65. Royce Freeman

1.5

0.0

1.5

5.5

7.0

21%

2

66. Damien Harris

1.3

0.7

0.7

10.7

11.3

12%

3

67. Frank Gore

1.3

0.0

1.3

10.7

12.0

11%

3

68. Samaje Perine

1.3

0.7

0.7

4.0

4.7

29%

3

69. Travis Homer

1.3

0.3

1.0

3.3

4.3

31%

3

70. Cam Akers

1.0

0.0

1.0

9.0

10.0

10%

1

71. Devontae Booker

1.0

0.0

1.0

5.3

6.3

16%

3

72. Jordan Howard

1.0

1.0

0.0

10.0

10.0

10%

1

73. Ke'Shawn Vaughn

1.0

0.0

1.0

5.0

6.0

17%

1

74. LeSean McCoy

1.0

0.0

1.0

4.0

5.0

20%

1

75. Alfred Morris

0.5

0.0

0.5

8.5

9.0

6%

2

76. Darwin Thompson

0.5

0.0

0.5

3.5

4.0

13%

2

77. Peyton Barber

0.5

0.0

0.5

7.0

7.5

7%

2

78. AJ Dillon

0.3

0.0

0.3

5.0

5.3

6%

3

79. D'Onta Foreman

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.0

5.0

0%

2

80. Dontrelle Hilliard

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.0

4.0

0%

1

81. Mark Ingram

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.0

5.0

0%

1

82. Salvon Ahmed

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.0

7.0

0%

1

Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

Player

Neutral

Trailing

Leading

Game Script Bump

DAL Ezekiel Elliott

46%

20%

38%

Positive

JAX James Robinson

46%

36%

NA

CLE Kareem Hunt

46%

32%

NA

LA Darrell Henderson

43%

12%

24%

TEN Derrick Henry

39%

35%

43%

LV Josh Jacobs

36%

13%

48%

Positive

ATL Todd Gurley

36%

NA

34%

Positive

NO Alvin Kamara

35%

NA

24%

CHI David Montgomery

33%

32%

42%

KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire

31%

NA

23%

Positive

NYJ Frank Gore

31%

20%

22%

PHI Boston Scott

31%

12%

23%

BUF Devin Singletary

31%

NA

10%

WAS Antonio Gibson

30%

17%

36%

Positive

PIT James Conner

28%

18%

38%

Positive

ARI Chase Edmonds

28%

18%

23%

IND Jonathan Taylor

28%

13%

16%

NE Damien Harris

28%

19%

NA

CAR Mike Davis

27%

27%

25%

DET Adrian Peterson

27%

13%

21%

DET D'Andre Swift

25%

21%

28%

HOU Duke Johnson

24%

10%

24%

BAL Gus Edwards

24%

0%

24%

Positive

DEN Phillip Lindsay

23%

14%

36%

Positive

CIN Giovani Bernard

23%

17%

25%

TB Ronald Jones

23%

23%

29%

IND Jordan Wilkins

21%

11%

27%

Positive

BAL Lamar Jackson

20%

8%

20%

WAS J.D. McKissic

20%

30%

11%

BAL J.K. Dobbins

19%

23%

25%

NE Cam Newton

19%

16%

NA

SEA DeeJay Dallas

18%

16%

20%

HOU David Johnson

18%

30%

17%

SF JaMycal Hasty

18%

9%

19%

NO Latavius Murray

16%

NA

18%

LAC Joshua Kelley

16%

19%

18%

ARI Kyler Murray

15%

17%

23%

The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 10

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks