Why South Carolina's NCAA tournament domination has a concerning side

Dawn Staley doesn’t know why SEC coaches voted A’ja Wilson the Defensive Player of the Year once, let alone twice. Wilson, already a WNBA MVP in her four professional years with the Las Vegas Aces, insists that winning it twice wasn’t a fluke. Amid the playful tone for which the two are beloved, the South Carolina icons dug at the heart of what could lead the 2021-22 Gamecocks squad to a national championship. And what could be its downfall.

“I often question whether or not we’re expending so much energy on the defensive side of the ball that we don’t have any energy left for the offensive side of the ball,” Staley said during a conversation with Wilson on the “NETLIFE with Dawn Staley” podcast released Wednesday.

The Gamecocks (31-2) have the best defense in the nation and put it on display in the first two rounds. But their offense is averaging the fewest points since 2012-13 and ranks 56th. Not even national Player of the Year contender Aliyah Boston could get her shot going against Miami, shining a light on the largest vulnerability for the year-long No. 1 team.

All it takes is another sub-30% shooting day against the offensive juggernauts still in the field to knock out the odds-on favorites. And five of the 16 teams left rank in the top 25 in points. The top questions for South Carolina now: How far can defense take the Gamecocks? And is it enough?

Why South Carolina will win it all: defensive power

South Carolina has the best defensive rating in the nation (73) and allows on average 50.2 points per game, ranking third behind UCF and the University of Albany.

“I just feel like there is a, you know, there is a nastiness to us on that side of the basketball,” Staley told reporters after the second round. “We see it. It wins basketball games for us.”

The nastiness has been even better in the first two rounds of the tournament with a 79-21 win against No. 16 seed Howard and a 49-33 win against No. 8 seed Miami. The defense was so tough against Howard it allowed the Bison only four points in the entire first half. And the 54 total points allowed easily destroyed the previous two-round record of 71.

“I'm going to be biased and say, no, I think my freshman year we had a pretty tight team [defensively],” Wilson said on the podcast when Staley asked if this was the best Gamecocks defense ever. “But this team is probably the best, I think, just locked-in wise. You can tell they’re all really all-in and locked in to the system. And yes, I think this is probably the most disciplined team you probably have had.”

It is the best South Carolina team by defensive rating and average points allowed in the past 13 years, the length of the Her Hoop Stats database. A total of 28 teams in that span have allowed fewer than 51 points a game and seven are the powerhouse UConn teams of the 2010s. South Carolina is the only Power Five team on the list.

The second-best Gamecocks defensive roster was during Wilson’s freshman season in 2014-15 when they had a 79 defensive rating (fifth-best in the nation) and went 34-3 en route to the national semifinals. That team struggled offensively early in a 66-65 Final Four loss to Notre Dame.

The difference between this South Carolina group and the title-winning UConn teams is that those Huskies teams had offensive ratings, points-per-game averages and net points that were off-the-charts high. And South Carolina’s first two games of this tournament leave room for concern even given the final scores.

Why South Carolina won’t win: a stagnant offense

South Carolina got the job done in the regular season even though it’s the lowest-producing offense since '13-14. The Gamecocks averaged a scoring margin of 20.7 points, sandwiched between UConn (20.9) and N.C. State (20). They defeated those teams in the regular season by margins of 16 and nine, respectively, while keeping them 17 and 20 points below their season-scoring averages.

Then the postseason came along. Three of their six worst field-goal percentages are the SEC championship game loss to Kentucky (33.3%), the first-round Howard win (35.4%) and the second-round Miami win (29.5%). The last of those was their worst of the season by 3 percentage points. The Kentucky and Miami games are their two worst 2-point shooting percentages of the year and South Carolina relies on those baskets for 61.2% of its totals, per Her Hoop Stats.

Miami head coach Katie Meier said her focus was to pack the paint since the Gamecocks don’t rely on shooting but push it inside to bigs Aliyah Boston (6-foot-5), Kamilla Cardoso (6-7), Laeticia Amihere (6-4) and Victaria Saxton (6-2). That will continue to work if guards Destanni Henderson and Zia Cooke, who each average 11 points per game, have more struggles. They shot a combined 4-of-24 (16.7%) against Howard and 6-of-21 (28.6%) against Miami. Henderson is a 40.5% shooter and Cooke at 34.1%.

Even Boston had a rough day, going 4-of-15 and battling for her 26th consecutive double-double. But South Carolina advanced to see another day and as far as Staley is concerned, it’ll work out fine.

“I think you just have to continue to play good basketball, just take good shots,” she said after the Miami win. “You know, basketball has a way of just repaying you for doing it the right way and being disciplined. If we're not making shots and we're not defending the rebound, then there is really —it's an issue. But as long as we're defending, as long as we're rebounding the basketball, those two areas really give us a good chance of winning basketball games. And at this point, the offense is a cherry on top.”

Who could trip up South Carolina?

South Carolina will play No. 5 seed North Carolina (25-6) in the Greensboro region of the Sweet 16 (Friday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN). The Tar Heels rank 32nd on offense (73.5 ppg) and 19th on defense (55.3 ppg). They are the highest-ranked defensive team the Gamecocks will face in the field, coming in fourth overall (75.6). North Carolina defeated Stephen F. Austin, 79-66, and Arizona, 63-45, to get here.

Of the teams in the tournament, UConn comes in next at sixth (77.7) and Louisville at eighth (79). South Carolina wouldn’t have to deal with the Huskies until the championship game and wouldn't play the Cardinals until the Final Four. South Dakota, the No. 10 seed in Wichita, is 12th (79.9).

The best offenses are mostly on the other side of the bracket in N.C. State (110.8 offensive rating in Bridgeport), Maryland (108.7, Spokane), Stanford (107.3, Spokane) and UConn (107.2). And Notre Dame can't be overlooked with the way its offense is rolling, highlighted by its 108-64 win over offense powerhouse Oklahoma.

But a meeting with Iowa State (108.3) or Creighton (108.2), which quieted Caitlin Clark and Iowa's high-powered offense, will await in the Elite Eight and great defense can prevent only so much. They’ll need the cherry on top.