To an extent, it’s the same old story with the Carolina Hurricanes.
They’re “heating up their Corsi” like always this season (thus leading the NHL in possession numbers as well as by simpler terms such as shots on goal), yet that quantity isn’t always translating to quality.
That’s especially true lately. Carolina’s managed just four goals total during the past four games, winning once and grabbing an overtime point as they slipped to a middling 12-10-4.
So, what gives? This post examines a few things that are working, some facets that are not, and proposes some potential solutions.
Quantity over quality, or quantity and quality?
Again, the Hurricanes are “heating up their Corsi” as usual, thus leading the NHL in possession numbers as well as by simpler terms such as shots on goal. Despite easily topping all NHL teams with 38.7 SOG per game, they’re only averaging 2.5 goals per contest, the third-lowest total in the league.
To some extent, that might be the nature of the beast for this team.
Here’s the thing: while heating up of said Corsi numbers might present something of a mirage, it’s likely still a sign that they’re hogging the puck in a way that gives them a good chance to win.
After all, there is some element of quality to go with all of that quantity. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Hurricanes generate 57.19-percent of high-danger chances at even-strength, second only to the Minnesota Wild.
Is it frustrating to dominate the shot clock and not always reap the benefits? Sure, but I’d argue that the Hurricanes are putting themselves in a better position than, say, the Anaheim Ducks (who suffer a barrage of shots and generally hope that John Gibson can save them, over and over again).
Finding a fix?
Interestingly, goaltending – the Hurricanes’ biggest headache for ages – has been alleviated, at least in the short-term.
Claiming Curtis McElhinney has worked gloriously well so far. Through 10 games, the 35-year-old is 7-2-1 with a tremendous .930 save percentage. By Hurricanes terms, McElhinney has been vintage Dominik Hasek with a side of non-irate Patrick Roy.
As you might guess, counting on McElhinney to be “the guy” all season would be tenuous. Obviously, there’s the age factor. He’s also only carried a semi-reasonable workload twice (28 games in 2013-14 and 32 in 2014-15 with Columbus), and was only in the teens the past five seasons.
That said, his career .910 save percentage is quite competent by the standards of a journeyman backup, and the Hurricanes might just be able to create a nurturing-enough atmosphere to make things work … enough.
This post mainly focuses on how Carolina can improve, but we must not ignore the elephant in the room: the goaltending could collapse once again, possibly erasing any gains made through these suggested tweaks.
So, maybe the Hurricanes need to keep an eye out for other goalies on waivers, or even trade options? Sure, McElhinney could save the day, yet they’d be foolish not to be on the lookout for Plan … D? E? Z?
Putrid power play
On Oct. 24, I took a deeper look at Dougie Hamilton‘s disappointing start with the Hurricanes. My takeaway was that, for whatever struggles he was enduring, Carolina was leaving production on the table by not deploying Hamilton with the top power play unit. Simply put, Justin Faulk‘s production since at least 2017-18 has been disappointing, and the Hurricanes’ power play numbers argued that point further.
Well, very little has changed since that post was published. (Sheesh, the Hurricanes have the gall to ignore free advice. How rude.)
Faulk remains their top power play minutes man, despite managing a paltry eight points in 26 games. Faulk only managing two of those points on the power play is, honestly, a little alarming. Hamilton, meanwhile, ranks slightly behind Jaccob Slavin as their third-most-used PP defenseman, and he’s low down the order overall.
That would be acceptable if Carolina’s power play was scoring in buckets. After all, plenty of good power-play units leave talented players out of the mix, as there are typically only five spots.
The Hurricanes power play is not very good, though. They’re connecting at 15.9-percent success rate, eighth-worst in the NHL (and very close to being bottom-five).
Earlier in the season, playing Faulk in that position made sense to me for a more cynical reason: pumping up his trade value. It’s unclear if that was ever actually the plan, but either way, it clearly isn’t working.
To the credit of Rod Brind’Amour and the Hurricanes staff, Left Wing Lock’s latest listings indicate that they’ve at least realized that, at 37, Justin Williams probably isn’t top power-play material any longer. It’s not ideal that he came into Tuesday with the same (2:42 per game) average as a far more spry Teuvo Teravainen, but this stands as a step in the right direction.
This isn’t to say that Williams cannot play. He’s still a heady winger who manages strong possession numbers, even on a team brimming with guys who keep the puck going in the right direction. It’s simply to say that it might be more appropriate to pass the torch to those with more potential, such as …
Look, it’s understandable why teams want to ease players into the NHL. This is a young man’s league nonetheless, so it’s becoming increasingly clear that Andrei Svechnikov deserves more reps.
Really, the second pick of the 2018 NHL Draft hasn’t looked out of place. Svechnikov has 12 points in 26 games so far, and could have more considering his 8.7 shooting percentage. He’s not getting buried in the lineup (14:10 per game), but I’d like to see him deployed even more often. They could always scale back his minutes if the burden ends up being too heavy for him to carry.
The deeper you dig, the more it becomes clear that Svechnikov might have more to offer.
Using BPM, which tries to improve upon points, to look at rookies.
Svechnikov is a sleeping giant. He's generating tones of shots, takeaways and shot assists. Petterson is good but obviously due for some regression. At the bottom, Mittelstadt is a below replacement 5v5 producer pic.twitter.com/CFOF2D0Z5Y
— Chace McCallum (@CMhockey66) December 3, 2018
Why not see if this sleeping giant could enjoy a monster rookie season? Why wait? Hurricanes fans have been asked to be patient for long enough, right?
Management should also keep an eye on the progress of Martin Necas. He was demoted to the AHL after seven middling games, but it might be worth burning a year off of his rookie deal if it seems like he can give them a shot in the arm later this season. As Jordan Staal showed many moons ago in helping the Penguins make the playoffs with 29 goals as a rookie in 2006-07, sometimes the rewards outweigh the risks.
Shake things up?
We’ve seen quite a few “lateral trades” lately, and such a thought might make sense for the Hurricanes.
For one thing, there’s Faulk, whose contract ($4.8M cap hit) expires after next season. Carolina’s rife with right-handed defensemen, especially with Brett Pesce possibly coming back soon. Maybe it’s time to break up that logjam?
Victor Rask is another player who might need to relocate. Rask is only getting minimal ice time (11:49 per game) and has only scored a goal in his six games this season. His $4M cap hit could at least be close to the sweet spot to get a deal done, particularly for a team that has a similar player who’s getting lost in the shuffle. Maybe he could rebound to his respectable 40-plus point form after getting a clean slate?
The Hurricanes can be frustrating, and not just because they tend to dominate the shot clock without doing the same on the scoreboard. This feels like a team that’s failed to take that next step, instead finding themselves as the perpetual wallflower at a grade school dance.
You can’t control every bounce, and Carolina’s goalie worries linger not very far off in the distance, but this team has a lot going for it. Few NHL squads can compare to Carolina’s depth on defense, and this is still a franchise brimming with young talent.
If they can survive in net, then improving that power play and giving more ice time to skilled players like Hamilton and Svechnikov might just make the difference.