The danger of relegation: What will happen if Leeds United go down
When the process of appointing Jesse Marsch started to accelerate in February, the American coach was asked by Leeds United owner Andrea Radrizzani whether he would come to the club if they were in the Championship next season.
Marsch's decision to come to Elland Road was not a no-brainer - his gut instinct was that Marcelo Bielsa had earned the right to stay in charge and lead the club away from relegation danger - but Radrizzani's question is pertinent again now that the threat of relegation is once again looming large in west Yorkshire.
A return to the Championship just two years after the club ended their 16-year exile from the top flight would be a serious blow, although perhaps not as catastrophic as it would be for some of Leeds' Premier League peers - or, indeed, for the club themselves when they last dropped out of the elite in 2004. Then, serious financial problems saw them fall into administration and ultimately into the third tier, seriously bruising the club's pride.
Leeds would inevitably lose some of the assets who have built in value over the last two years if they dropped again now. Kalvin Phillips is a key England player, while Raphinha has broken into the Brazil team: in a World Cup year, they would be expecting to play at the highest level, and Manchester United and Barcelona, respectively, are known to be interested.
Others, such as Illan Meslier or Patrick Bamford, before his injury problems this season, have shown they are genuine Premier League players. Joe Gelhardt also has huge potential, with Bielsa's reluctance to give him more game time proving one of the supporters' biggest frustrations towards the end of the Argentine's reign. It would be foolish to think clubs would not look at picking some of them off when the window opens, should Leeds find themselves in the Championship.
Their director of football, Victor Orta, is a divisive figure: he generated headlines by having a stand-up row with someone seated close to him in the Elland Road directors' box at the end of the Brentford game in December.
But when a managerial change was needed, he had done the groundwork already as to who Bielsa's successor so there was no panic. His overall body of work - and global network of contacts - has left him with admirers in Italy, Spain and America, where clubs are looking to build sensibly over a period of time.
Financially, Leeds would earn parachute payments if they were relegated but their last accounts already showed them to be in healthy shape. They posted a £26 million profit in the 2020-21 season, bolstered by increased broadcast revenues, and also secured deals with shirt sponsor SBOTOP and kit manufacturer Adidas.
Their wage bill is at £108 million but relegation reductions are common in contracts, reducing some by around 25 per cent in the event of playing in the Championship. They also follow a more Italian or Spanish trend of having buy-out clauses inserted into deals, where players can be bought for a set fee if relegated. Finding buyers for their players would not be a problem, given the progress over the last two years.
The American will have realised that relegation was always a possibility, besides, he will still be bullish about his prospects of keeping Leeds in the division: he did, after all, inspire a five-match unbeaten run which yielded 11 points, but a 4-0 thrashing by Manchester City - combined with unexpected wins for Burnley and Everton - left them in 17th place, their lowest position since November. They will be in the bottom three should Everton win their game in hand.
Fixtures are not kind, either. On Sunday, Leeds face an Arsenal team fighting for a Champions League place themselves, then have the traditionally tough fixture against Chelsea on Wednesday, by which time they will know what is needed against Brighton and Brentford in their final matches.
Speaking ahead of this weekend's trip to the Emirates, Marsch said he was in for the long-haul. "I hope to make this my home for many years. I love the team and the area and have motivation and desire to help this team achieve." His family are moving to England in the next few weeks.
As players and board members filtered out into the car park after the defeat to City last weekend, there were some worried faces. Leeds may not be staring at oblivion as they were in 2004, but everyone at this famous old club knows the stakes as the season enters its final stretch.
