Guide to Round 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs

Ahead of these playoffs, the question is framed differently.

It’s not, “Which team has put it all together and is primed for a championship run?”

It is, “Is there a team that can possibly spoil this for Tampa Bay?”

Yes, the beauty behind the Stanley Cup playoffs is that it’s normally an unpredictable sequence of slightly weighted coin flips. Yet with one team — maybe the greatest assembled in the modern era — slanting the scales, and maybe no obvious foil to the Presidents’ Trophy winners, there’s a different feeling in the lead-up to the tournament this spring.

And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Here's our guide to the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs:

Everyone's chasing the Lightning

Who out there would honestly anoint a team other than the Tampa Bay Lightning as favourites for Lord Stanley?

With the NHL’s best forward group, and perhaps the top combination of defense and goaltending, too, the Bolts matched the NHL’s single-season wins record and thrust themselves in the conversation among the greatest teams ever assembled.

They’ll have every advantage, including home ice throughout, and will be considered heavy, heavy favourites in any matchup they encounter regardless of what happens.

Literally everything points to the Lightning finally winning a Stanley Cup in this stretch of dominance for the franchise. That is if you’re willing to disregard the fact that Presidents’ Trophy winners, historically, are limited to just their regular season hardware.

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Considering their history, the national focus and the intense pressure on several of the biggest names in the sport, the long-established rematch between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs promises to create more delicious headlines. But speaking strictly to which series is set up to showcase the best, most exciting hockey, it’s the two-three matchup in the Pacific Division.

The Sharks and Golden Knights are two tremendously talented, fun, and imperfect teams with real aspirations, both of which have special players and serious concerns. They also play in two of the best barns in the NHL, so the atmosphere will only amplify what happens on the ice.

I favour the Golden Knights. San Jose’s goaltending is the biggest question mark leading into the series, and the Sharks give up way too many high-quality looks. Plus, Vegas’s strength is its opportunism.

Upset special

I suppose technically Vegas would be an upset over the Sharks, but you, the reader, deserve and demand a more courageous pick than that. So the best chance to upset a division winner? That’s Dallas.

Why? A series with the Nashville Predators promises to be low scoring and tightly contested, and could be reduced to a battle of goaltenders. With the only thing preventing Ben Bishop from a serious challenge for the Vezina Trophy being his comparably light workload, and the better game-breaking shooters belonging to Dallas as well, the Stars certainly have a shot.

Group of Death

The Atlantic Division has the one, three and seven seeds plus the most talented team the Columbus Blue Jackets have ever assembled playing out of the wild-card slot. There is no tougher path to a conference final.

X-Factors

John Tavares — The single most significant free agent addition in the post-lockout era, John Tavares could completely change the dynamic in the first-round rematch between the Leafs and Bruins. He posted a career-high 47 goals in his debut season with his hometown team, and formed the axis point for one of the best lines in hockey with Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman.

Martin Jones — San Jose’s netminder tethered the Sharks to a 31st-place finish in total goaltending with a season save rate below .900. He must vastly improve his performance for the Sharks or risk undercutting all San Jose has built toward in this title-or-bust season.

Nathan MacKinnon — MacKinnon is one of the few proven game-breakers with the ability to completely take over a series. He’ll have to be a force of nature he’s been previously for the Avs to overcome the depth disadvantage in their opening-round series with the top-seed Calgary Flames.

Robin Lehner — With the disparity in top-end talent when comparing the Islanders and Penguins, it will take everyone fulfilling their duties in Barry Trotz’s system for the Islanders to overcome it. Lehner’s role in that? Allow two or less.

The Capitals can't do it again, can they?

Hey, it’s set up decently for them, isn’t it?

While the shot-dominant Hurricanes, immensely-talented Penguins and meticulously-organized Islanders are each, in themselves, formidable challengers, the defending champions probably have the most favourable road to a conference final among No. 1 seeds.

Compared to last season, wherein which the Capitals have endured minimal turnover, they have been marginally better throughout the balance of the season, controlling a little more of the shot share and adding 18 goals to their season’s total.

But it’s the last six weeks that indicate that the Capitals are quietly peaking at the right time and finding a rhythm under Todd Rierden. Most notably, Braden Holtby was brilliant in the stretch run, stopping pucks at a high, high rate. His improved performance supported an attack that crept into the elite in terms of even strength production.

It’s possible that Columbus and then either Boston or Toronto wear away at the Lightning a little bit, and what the Capitals may give up in a potential rematch for the East crown is evened up some should they meet the Bolts again.

Pick Section

Justin Cuthbert:

Lightning (5), Bruins (7), Capitals (6), Penguins (7)

Flames (6), Golden Knights (7), Stars (7), Jets (7)

Complete bracket

Kyle Cantlon:

Lightning (5), Bruins (6), Capitals (5), Penguins (7)

Flames (6), Sharks (6), Predators (7), Jets (6)

Complete bracket

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