Group of Five conference championship game previews, picks against the spread
Welcome to conference championship week.
While a lot of the focus is going to be on the Power Five conference title games, don’t forget about the Group of Five matchups. They could prove to be some of the best games of the weekend.
The action begins with the Conference USA title game on Friday night before the AAC, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt should all have highly-competitive games on Saturday.
These games are going to be a lot of fun.
(Note: All times, ET, odds via BetMGM)
AAC: No. 22 UCF at No. 18 Tulane
Time: 4 p.m. | TV: ABC | Line: Tulane -3.5 | Total 56.5
How these teams got here
Tulane (10-2, 7-1 AAC): The Green Wave’s road win over Kansas State in Week 3 was a sign of things to come. Tulane lost its next game to Southern Miss but reeled off five consecutive wins to open AAC play. The Green Wave lost to UCF in Week 11 but then ended the season with a big win over SMU and a win over Cincinnati for the right to host the title game. Tulane won just two games in 2021, so it's been an incredible turnaround.
UCF (9-3, 6-2 AAC): The Knights lost at home to Louisville in Week 2 and then won four straight games before a loss at East Carolina. UCF then beat Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane in consecutive weeks before a surprising loss at home to Navy in Week 12 that ended up costing it home field advantage in the title game. The Knights then barely got by South Florida in the regular season finale to earn a spot in the AAC title game.
What’s on the line
Tulane: Simply put, this is a historic season for Tulane. An 11th win would mark Tulane’s first 11-win season since it went 12-0 in 1998. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1931. Tulane also hasn’t been to a major bowl game since it went to the 1939 Sugar Bowl and a conference title would be the school’s first in the AAC. Tulane's last conference title came back in 1998 when it won Conference USA.
UCF: The Knights are looking for their third New Year’s Six bowl appearance and first since 2018 after going to the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl in back-to-back undefeated regular seasons. A conference title would also be the school’s first since 2018.
Players to watch
Tulane RB Tyjae Spears: 190 rushes, 1,177 yards, 16 total TDs
UCF WR Javon Baker: 50 catches, 710 yards, 5 TDs
Picks
Nick: UCF +3.5
Sam: Tulane -3.5
Conference USA: North Texas at UTSA
Time: 7:30 p.m. (Friday) | TV: CBSSN | Line: UTSA -8.5 | Total 68.5
How these teams got here
North Texas (7-5, 6-2 C-USA): The Mean Green were 2-3 after back-to-back losses to UNLV and Memphis to end September. But once conference play began, North Texas was one of the better teams in Conference USA. The only two losses came to UTSA and UAB on the road. The 31-27 loss to UTSA on Oct. 22 happened after UNT took a 13-10 lead into the fourth quarter and the lead changed hands five times in the final 15 minutes. From there, UNT closed out the season by winning three of four to get to the title game.
UTSA (10-2, 8-0 C-USA): The Roadrunners are going for their second consecutive C-USA title after reeling off nine straight wins to end the season. UTSA has had a few close calls along the way; the Roadrunners beat Western Kentucky by three, UNT by four, UAB by six and UTEP by three. But this is a program that has shown its 12-win 2021 campaign was no fluke.
What’s on the line
North Texas: UNT is in just its second C-USA title game and looking for its first win. The Mean Green lost the C-USA title game 41-17 to Florida Atlantic in 2017. North Texas last won a conference championship in 2004 when it won its third consecutive Sun Belt title. A win would give UNT its first season with eight or more wins since 2018 and the school can clinch its first winning season since then with a win in either the conference title game or a bowl game.
UTSA: UTSA is looking to win back-to-back C-USA titles. A win in the conference title game and a subsequent bowl game would match last season’s 12-win total and give UTSA more wins in the last two years than it had in the previous four (20). The Roadrunners are also heading for a fourth bowl game in program history. This game is also a matchup of teams playing their final games in Conference USA. Both North Texas and UTSA are among the six teams heading to the AAC in the summer of 2023.
Players to watch
North Texas QB Austin Aune: 201/305, 3,115 yards, 31 TDs, 11 INTs
UTSA QB Frank Harris: 273/392, 3,524 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs
Picks
Nick: UTSA -8.5
Sam: UTSA -8.5
MAC: Toledo vs. Ohio
Time: Noon | TV: ESPN | Line: Toledo -1.5 | Total: 55
How these teams got here
Toledo (7-5, 5-3 MAC): After going 2-2 in the non-conference portion of the schedule, Toledo was playing well to begin MAC play. A few weeks ago, the Rockets were 7-3 overall with a 5-1 mark vs. conference competition. At that point, Toledo had already clinched the MAC West, but an injury to quarterback Dequan Finn loomed large. Finn has been in and out of the lineup in recent weeks. He first got hurt back on Oct. 22 in a loss to Buffalo and then suffered a different injury when he returned to the field on Nov. 8. He saw action on Friday vs. Western Michigan but looked hobbled. Tucker Gleason is Finn’s backup and he’s completed just 47.5% of his throws this season.
Ohio (9-3, 7-1 MAC): Ohio went 2-2 in non-conference play and then opened MAC play with a loss. The Bobcats haven’t lost since. Ohio enters the MAC title game on a seven-game winning streak with six of its seven conference wins coming by a double-digit margin. However, like Toledo, Ohio is also dealing with a quarterback injury. Kurtis Rourke, arguably the best quarterback in the MAC, went down with a season-ending injury on Nov. 15. Without Rourke, Ohio will turn to CJ Harris, who threw for 196 yards, rushed for 65 yards and had four total touchdowns last week vs. Bowling Green in the win that clinched the division title.
What’s on the line
Toledo: This is Toledo’s first trip to the MAC title game since 2017, when it beat Akron, 45-28, back in Jason Candle’s third season on the job. Since then, the Rockets have twice finished second, and also finished third and fifth, in the MAC West. Prior to 2017, Toledo hadn’t won the MAC since 2004 — so this opportunity doesn’t come around all that often for the Rockets.
Ohio: Ohio hasn’t won the MAC since 1968. The Bobcats had so many winning seasons under Frank Solich, but lost all four conference championship game appearances during his 16-season run in Athens. Tim Albin worked under Solich all along and then took over when Solich stepped away. In 2021, the Bobcats had a rough year, going 3-9. This year, they have a chance to break that conference title drought. Ohio can also get to 10 wins for the first time since 2011.
Players to watch
Toledo DT Desjuan Johnson: 61 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks
Ohio RB Sieh Bangura: 177 rushes, 884 yards, 11 TDs
Picks
Nick: Ohio +1.5
Sam: Ohio +1.5
Mountain West: Fresno State at Boise State
Time: 4 p.m. | TV: Fox | Line: Boise State -3.5 | Total 54
How these teams got here
Fresno State (8-4, 7-1 MWC): The Bulldogs lost four straight games after a season-opening win over Cal Poly. But it’s worth noting that streak included a three-point loss to a very good Oregon State team, a five-point loss to a bowl-bound UConn team and a loss to the Boise State team that Fresno will face on Saturday. Those last two losses came without QB Jake Haener after he suffered an ankle injury against USC. Haener returned for the final five games of the regular season and has been phenomenal in those wins with 13 TDs and just two interceptions.
Boise State (9-3, 8-0 MWC): The Broncos have also rebounded from a rough start. Boise State was 3-2 after losing to UTEP and made a change at quarterback and offensive coordinator. The offense has been much better with Taylen Green at QB and Dirk Koetter at OC as the Broncos’ only loss over the final eight games of the season came to BYU. Boise State clinched the Mountain Division with a 20-17 win over Wyoming and then beat Utah State by 19 at home in the regular-season finale.
What’s on the line
Fresno State: The Bulldogs are in their fifth MWC title game and looking for their third conference title. Fresno last won the title in 2018 with a 19-16 OT win over Boise State. Fresno State can win at least 10 games in a season in back-to-back years for the first time since 2017 and 2018.
Boise State: The Broncos are going for their first MWC title since 2019 in their sixth MWC appearance. Fresno vs. Boise is the most-played conference title game — this is now their fourth meeting in the game. A 10-win season would be the first in Boise for coach Andy Avalos after he was hired to replace Bryan Harsin.
Players to watch
Fresno State QB Jake Haener: 211/287, 2,432 yards, 17 TDs, 3 INTs
Boise State RB George Holani: 201 carries, 1,059 yards, 13 total TDs
Picks
Nick: Fresno State +3.5
Sam: Fresno State +3.5
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina at Troy
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN | Line: Troy -8.5 | Total: 48.5
How these teams got here
Coastal Carolina (9-2, 6-2 Sun Belt): Even after losing several of its best players after last season, Coastal Carolina kept on winning in 2022. The Chanticleers opened the year 6-0, beating some mediocre teams by close margins, before a 49-21 loss to Old Dominion. But that ended up just being a blip. CCU rebounded by winning its next three games, including a 35-28 triumph over Appalachian State to clinch the Sun Belt East. However, star quarterback Grayson McCall injured his foot in that game and has been sidelined since. It’s unclear if he will be available to play as the Chanticleers look for their second Sun Belt title in three seasons.
Troy (10-2, 7-1 Sun Belt): Troy took a backslide after Neal Brown left for West Virginia. From 2019 to 2021, the Trojans went a combined 15-20 in three seasons under Chip Lindsey, prompting a coaching change. Jon Sumrall, a former Troy assistant, came in after four seasons as an SEC assistant and has done a wonderful job. Troy opened the year with a loss to Ole Miss and then lost to App State on a Hail Mary. The Trojans have not lost since. They enter the Sun Belt title game on a nine-game winning streak while boasting one of the best defenses in the country. Troy allows just 4.58 yards per play, which ranks No. 8 nationally.
What’s on the line
Coastal Carolina: CCU is going for its second Sun Belt title in three seasons. The Chanticleers won the conference back in 2020 before finishing second in the Sun Belt East behind App State last fall. CCU could have had home-field advantage for the title game, but it lost to James Madison on Saturday. JMU was also 6-2 in league play, but CCU gets to go to the title game because of NCAA rules about programs transitioning from the FCS to FBS level.
Troy: Troy has not won an outright Sun Belt championship since it captured back-to-back titles in 2008 and 2009. Since then, the Trojans were twice the co-champions — in 2010 and 2017. This is Troy’s first time in the Sun Belt championship game since the conference instituted this format to decide its winner. Louisiana had previously won all four Sun Belt West titles, but Troy broke that streak.
Players to watch
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall: 168/244, 2,314 yards, 21 TDs; 165 rushing yards, 4 TDs
Troy LB Carlton Martial: 112 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, interception
Picks
Nick: CCU +8.5
Sam: Troy -8.5
