Grading the top 10 picks from the 2021 NFL draft at midseason
It takes a couple years before one can make a truly fair assessment of an NFL player. Unfortunately, patience is not something most head coaches can afford, which creates a constant tug-of-war between trying to win now and building for the future.
This is something that teams keep in mind when selecting players in the draft, and certainly played a factor in the Atlanta Falcons’ decision to pick pro-ready prospect Kyle Pitts over quarterbacks Justin Fields and Mac Jones.
Now that we are halfway through the 2021 season, let’s check in on the top 10 draft picks and hand out some midseason grades.
Pick 1: QB Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 2-6
Season stats: 176 completions on 296 attempts (59.5%), 1,821 passing yards, 8 TD, 9 INT, 73.6 passer rating; 32 rushing attempts, 136 yards, 2 TD
Analysis: Lawrence’s situation in Jacksonville has been far from ideal and while his numbers aren’t overly impressive, the runaway No. 1 overall selection has shown considerable growth throughout the year. After throwing seven interceptions through his first three games, he has thrown just two in the five games since. In Week 9, Lawrence outplayed Bills quarterback Josh Allen by not turning the ball over and leading a game-winning drive to complete the upset over Buffalo.
Grade: B-
Pick 2: QB Zach Wilson - Jets
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Record: 2-6
Season stats: 104 completions on 181 attempts (57.5%), 1,168 passing yards, 4 TD, 9 INT, 63.5 passer rating; 8 rushing attempts, 22 yards
Analysis: Wilson, like Lawrence, hasn’t been done any favors by the team that drafted him. But while the Jets are as dysfunctional as ever, backup Mike White’s production in Wilson’s absence shows the rookie signal-caller has been an equal part of the problem. Wilson has a really good arm, but he needs to be more decisive with his reads. If he can start making the easy throws and staying within the offense instead of going all 2021 Patrick Mahomes every time the play breaks down, he could have a nice long career in this league. Wilson may also benefit from his current injury as he gets to step back and observe a bit while getting somewhat of a mental break.
Grade: D+
Pick 3: QB Trey Lance - 49ers
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 3-5 (1 start)
Season stats: 25 completions on 48 attempts (52.1%), 354 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 88.4 passer rating; 27 rushing attempts, 133 yards, 1 TD
Analysis: Lance sprained his knee a few weeks ago, but his big-play ability has been clear from the jump. He can feel the pocket and is a viable running threat. Obviously, he’s benefitted from not having to play right away and is on a more talented team than both Lawrence and Wilson. However, there’s a reason Kyle Shanahan moved up for Lance after the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford. Even in limited playing time, Lance has shown why some scouts thought he could have the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft class.
Grade: B+
Pick 4: TE Kyle Pitts - Falcons
(AP Photo/Butch Dill)
Record: 4-4
Season stats: 36 catches for 546 receiving yards (15.2 yard average), 1 TD
Analysis: Pitts came in with unrealistically high expectations, but has mostly been as advertised through the first eight games. He’s on pace for 1,160 yards, which would be an elite year for any tight end, and unprecedented for a rookie. Since the NFL merger, the most yards by a rookie tight end was 894 by Jeremy Shockey in 2002. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has moved Pitts all around the offensive formation, playing him for long stretches at receiver as the team deals with Calvin Ridley’s absence. So far, so good for Pitts and the Falcons.
Grade: A-
No. 5: WR Ja'Marr Chase - Bengals
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Record: 5-4
Season stats: 44 catches for 835 yards (19.0 YPC), 7 TD
Analysis: The hype around Chase was diluted after he opted out of the 2020 college football season. Plus, the trio of Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith stole some of the buzz around the former LSU star. Chase quickly reminded everyone why he was still the first receiver taken. In seven of his first nine games, Chase has racked up at least 50 yards, with two games over 150 yards (159 in Week 5 and 201 in Week 7). There isn’t much more the Bengals could ask for out of Chase. He has seven touchdowns, averages nearly 20 yards per reception, and has clicked with quarterback Joe Burrow like the two are still at LSU.
Grade: A+
Pick 6: Jaylen Waddle - Dolphins
(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
Record: 3-7
Season stats: 60 catches, 557 receiving yards (9.3 YPC), 3 TD
Analysis: Waddle has been better than his numbers show, even though they’re solid in their own right. Miami’s revolving door at the quarterback position hasn’t allowed Waddle to really show what he can do.. It’s one of the reasons he’s averaging just 9.3 yards per reception this season. With electrifying speed and game-changing special teams ability, Waddle looks like a quality player that should have a nice long career.
Grade: B+
Pick 7: OL Penei Sewell - Lions
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Record: 0-8
Season stats: N/A
Analysis: The Lions are still winless this season, but definitely got it right with Sewell. Entering the draft as one of the blue-chip talents, Sewell has been everything he was thought to be and more. Detroit started him out at right tackle before Taylor Decker’s injury forced head coach Dan Campbell to switch the rookie over to left tackle. Now, despite playing well on the blind side, the team will move him back to right tackle with Taylor Decker returning. According to Pro Football Focus, Sewell has allowed four sacks, something the former Oregon standout isn’t used to. In his defense, Lions quarterback Jared Goff has undoubtedly held onto the ball too long at times.
Grade: A-
Pick 8: CB Jaycee Horn - Panthers
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Record: 4-5
Season stats: 5 tackles (3 solo), 1 INT, 1 pass defended
Analysis: We only judge players by what they do on the field and when Horn was healthy, he played well. I’m not going to penalize the selection just because he broke his foot during Week 3. Carolina started 3-0 this season and the team went on a four-game losing streak once Horn was out. We need to see more, but the early returns are promising for the Panthers’ new cornerback.
Grade: B
Pick 9: CB Patrick Surtain - Broncos
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 5-4
Season stats: 29 tackles (24 solo), 1 INT, 8 passes defended
Analysis: Surtain has done a good job stepping in right away at one of the NFL’s toughest positions and more than holding his own. He’s had no problem matching up against some elite receivers. When you draft a corner that high, it’s because you think he can be your No. 1 guy down the line, and Surtain looks like he’s ahead of schedule. Although, the rookie corner suffered a knee injury that may cost him some time. This looks like a quality pick for the Broncos.
Grade: A-
Pick 10: WR DeVonta Smith - Eagles
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Record: 3-6
Season stats: 38 catches for 537 receiving yards (14.1 YPR), 2 TD
Analysis: His 38 catches on 62 targets (61.3% catch rate) could be better, and while he’s lacked consistency on a weekly basis, Smith looks like he’ll be another in long line of Alabama receivers to thrive in the NFL. In Week 9, Smith caught five of six balls for 115 yards (23.2 yards per reception) and a touchdown, his best overall performance of the season.
Grade: B+
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