GPP Pivots: Monday 6/14 Playoff Edition

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Slate Notes:

Considering Green‘s absence and Trae Young‘s ability to extend a lead quicker than almost any guard in the NBA, Atlanta is expected to have an advantage tonight. Pointsbet.com has the Hawks as slight underdogs at +125 with a 225.5 O/U. Pivoting on a two-game slate is tough but game stacking is where you’ll find your answers. While most of the DFS community will only be investing in value from today’s first match-up, Investing in a full game stack could be a contrarian strategy. The most important pieces for stacking this game include Tobias Harris, Trae Young, Kevin Heurter, and potentially George Hill. Joel Embiid‘s status is crucial information for making your DFS lineups. Make sure to stick to a narrative when constructing your daily fantasy lineups today. What does this mean? This means, how will the gameplay out? Your daily fantasy lineup is simply a story of how you see a given slate playing out. Will your team blow them out? If you’re expecting one player to perform extremely well, what does this mean for the rest of the team? Try to imply things from the information you have.

Point Guard

George Hill - Philadelphia 76ers (vs. Atlanta Hawks)

As I’ve mentioned many times in my write-ups, game stacking on small playoff slates has proven to be very lucrative. Most people try to balance their lineup between the two games but the truth is, most of the time, one of these games ends up being a blowout. This results in their starters sidelined for most of the final quarter. It should be ingrained in your process to only invest in only close NBA matchups. Pivoting on small daily fantasy slates like today can be tough because everyone is seemingly on the same players. It’s important to note that on these small slates, your value picks are what make your lineup different from everyone else’s, allowing you to take down a GPP tournament. Taking a chance on someone like George Hill is the type of decision that will win you a GPP tournament. Try to think differently from the rest of the field. George Hill is one of my top pivots for today’s two-game slate. Why? Well, firstly his salary on Draftkings is ridiculously low at $3,300. Maxey and Milton are in the same price range. One of these Philadelphia guards will assume Green’s minutes and usage. Out of these options, Hill has the lowest projected roster percentages yet he’s averaged 14.1 MPG throughout this series. Hill has totaled, .75, 14.5, and 8.75 over his first three games this series. Look for him to step up tonight for the injured Danny Green at low percentages.

Trae Young - Atlanta Hawks (vs. Philadelphia 76ers)

Without Danny Green, rotations will shift, and defending Trae Young will become increasingly more difficult. When I watch Young, his most glaring advantage is the shockingly little amount of time and space he needs to make something happen. When defenses are not on the same page, Young excels. If you leave Trae unguarded for even one second he will pull back and take a three (with the longest range I’ve seen since Steph Curry). If you are late in defending Young, he has unbelievable quickness to drive by you. The cherry on top is his passing abilities. His vision is yet another skill the 76ers need to worry about when defending him. For some reason, Young has gone under-owned in daily fantasy competitions quite often this postseason. He’s the only superstar that I’ve seen at sub 15% ownership on specific occasions this postseason. Although he is relatively scoring dependent (in terms of daily fantasy production) I still have him as one of my top investments tonight. The absence of Danny Green will have Philadelphia struggling to consistently defend young and his versatile offensive abilities.

Other PG Option: Tyrese Maxey

Shooting Guard

Kevin Huerter - Atlanta Hawks (vs. Philadelphia 76ers)

Kevin Huerter hit foul trouble in their last match up but I fully expect him to come out shooting tonight. With Danny Green confirmed out, Philadelphia will attempt to fill his role with Korkmaz or Shake Milton. Both Milton and Korkmaz have had great moments throughout this series. Philadelphia’s bench does not worry me. I actually expect major value from them. Kevin has averaged 21.4 FP this series over a minute average of 19.1. His series-high was 30.25 FP in Game 1. Even if Embiid ends up sitting tonight, don’t count out the 76ers too quickly. Dwight Howard is fully capable of coming off the bench and performing. Huerter has been an important piece off the bench. Lou Williams has only averaged 14 FPPG over his 13.1 MPG this series. Again, Joel Embiid‘s confirmed status is the most important information on tonight’s daily fantasy slate. Invest in both sides of this game! Make sure to check confirmed lineups as well as injury reports before a lock at the NBC Sports Edge.

Other SG Option: Luke Kennard

Small Forward

Furkan Korkmaz - Philadelphia 76ers (vs. Atlanta Hawks)

Seth Curry should be a popular play tonight with Danny Green sidelined. Seth Curry is not where I’d invest $5,100 Draftkings salary but he seems to be the consensus for many in the daily fantasy community. I get it. With Green out, Curry will see a usage uptick with more shots and minutes. With that said, Curry strikes me as bad chalk. I’d rather invest in Korkmaz at value or George Hill off the bench (even Maxey or Milton). Curry has tough matchups against Bogdanovic, Hill, Huerter, etc. Korkmaz is hovering at a salary of 3,500 on DK. Curry has been shooting well but can he reach value at his current salaries? Close, but I say no.

Other SF Options: Marcus Morris Sr.

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Power Forward

Tobias Harris - Philadelphia 76ers (vs. Atlanta Hawks)

With a questionable Joel Embiid, you’re going to want to wait as long as possible before constructing your daily fantasy lineups (or player pools). Embiid's injury status is crucial information. If he plays, he becomes a viable daily fantasy player but if he does not, you have to decide as to whether or not Philadelphia can keep this game close. Tobias Harris becomes a must-play if Joel Embiid is confirmed out. His ability to score in isolation will be Philadelphia’s path to offensive success. Atlanta has proven to have trouble defending Harris, even in double teams. Harris has averaged 40.5 FPPG this series. He’s shooting 60 % from the field. Despite sitting at 40 point efforts all series, I’m expecting a 60 burger from Harris tonight if Embiid sits.

Other PF Option: Royce O’Neale

Center

Ivica Zubac - Los Angeles Clippers (vs. Utah Jazz)

Rudy Gobert‘s salaries on Draftkings, Fanduel, and YahooFantasy are low, and for good reason. This is not the matchup for him. His production has been mediocre and his involvement in this series has been inconsistent at best. The Clippers having the ability to go small with Batum or big with Zubac is hindering Gobert’s potential. Zubac matches up against Rudy and can limit his production in the paint and when he can’t, the Clippers go small eliminating Gobert from the equation. In terms of pivoting, I don’t believe Gobert will be popular tonight. Assuming his involvement in this series stays lacking, most will be avoiding him. By eliminating Gobert as a potential investment, you can then look at Utah’s smaller lineup as solid options. Players including Joe Ingles, Donovan Mitchell, Bogdanovic, and even Royce O’Neill become viable options. The Utah Jazz is underdogs at +170 with a 225.5 O/U courtesy of Pointsbet.com.

Other C Option: Derrick Favors

Bargain Bin

PG George Hill / Tyrese Maxey

SG Lou Williams

SF Furkan Korkmaz

PF Royce O’Neale

C Ivica Zubac