French Open Best Bets for June 11

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Alexander Zverev (+190) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (-250) Total: 37.5

There's arguably no one in tennis with more talent than Alexander Zverev, so the fact that he's growing in confidence and coming off a Grand Slam final just mere months ago is a scary sight for everyone on tour. Zverev's massive serve and groundstrokes have proved to be an issue for even the greatest on tour, like one Rafael Nadal (and that one was on clay!).

The bottom line here is that Zverev's a player that you shouldn't take lightly here. He's very dangerous at these odds, and capable of beating the Greek. Though he's just 2-5 lifetime against Tsitsipas, one of the two wins came in their most recent encounter in Acapulco, which was a rare loss for Tstisipas this year and another feather in Zverev's cap in the midst of a great season.

I had to say those nice things above because I really don't see Zverev coming through, even if he's capable of doing so. Not only has it been profitable to fade the German as the stakes become higher, but Tsitsipas has improved one key area of his game: his service. Without Tsitsipas donating break points to Zverev, I don't know if he'll be able to hang here. I think this could get finished up in three sets.

Edge: Tsitsipas -4.5 Games (-115)

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Novak Djokovic (+210) vs. Rafael Nadal (-280) Total: 37.5

It makes sense why oddsmakers have this matchup priced wildly differently than last year's final at Roland Garros, when Nadal rolled over Djokovic in three dominant sets as a short favorite. With that said, there's no way I'd set this line.

Last year, there was necessary context surrounding Djokovic's loss. He was absolutely gassed, having played through the stoppage in the infamous Adria Tour, infamously catching COVID in the middle of it, then later playing a Masters 1000 days before the U.S. Open where he was, once again, infamously defaulted for hitting an umpire with a ball.

It was a long, lengthy, exhausting Fall for Djokovic, who turned right around after the default to play Roland Garros a couple of weeks later, playing some marathon matches which culminated in a five-set triumph over Stefanos Tsitsipas. After all of that, he was exhausted, so it's no surprise he fell so easily to Nadal, and even less of surprise when you consider the conditions were wet and cold — far from ideal for the Serb.

The weather should be perfect on Friday, and Djokovic should have a puncher's chance here. Though he's lost five clay matches in a row to Nadal dating back to his win in 2016 in Rome, four of those have hit the Over, with the one Under in the aforementioned 2020 French Open final. The total should be a safe bet here, and if you're feeling frisky I'd play a little on Djokovic ML.

Edge: Over 37.5

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