Four very early, very bold predictions for the 2019 Fantasy Football season

By Eric McClung, Player Profiler
Special to Yahoo Sports

We haven’t even flipped the calendar yet to 2019 but here we are, planting flags in the ground and calling our shots for next season.

We’ve still got coaching changes, free agency, draft season, and so much more to go. Yet there’s plenty we can take away from 2018 even though Week 17 hasn’t even been played.

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Here are four very early and very bold predictions for the 2019 season for the offseason time capsule.

Josh Allen Becomes Tim Tebow

Avert your eyes, #BillsMafia. Your rookie quarterback is playing like Tim Tebow. Similar to Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, and Tebow, Josh Allen is more athlete than quarterback.

Both are extremely inaccurate passers that can only do two things: hit the occasional deep ball, and scramble. Lacking the touch and nuance to throw the ball with consistency, Allen, like Tebow, is trying to win by either by out-throwing or out-running the defense.

Following a Tebow trajectory, accuracy has been an issue for Allen at every level. In junior college he was a 49 percent passer. At Wyoming he posted a mere 56.2 percent completion rate playing in the Mountain West Conference. As a pro, Allen is only completing 51.7 percent of his passes.

Since returning from a four-game absence due to an elbow injury, Allen is at sub-50 percent. Despite a number of red flags, the scouting industrial complex struggles to see past Allen’s prototypical size and uncanny arm strength. Allen’s Throw Velocity of 62 miles per hour is the highest in the PlayerProfiler database.

The numbers show just how similar Allen’s style of passing deep is to Tebow. Among quarterbacks that have attempted more than 100 passes since 2007, Allen’s 11.7 average depth of throw is second only to Tebow at 12.6 yards. The deep balls look great on the highlight reel, but it’s a high variance approach. During his 11 regular season starts with the Denver Broncos back in 2011, Tebow posted a woeful 6.3 yards per pass attempt.

Now 11 games into his career, Allen’s yards per attempt also sits at 6.3. While Allen’s 63 deep ball attempts ranks No. 11 in the NFL, he ranks outside the top-30 in nearly every other meaningful passing metric. Even factoring out drops by his receivers and throwaways, Allen’s 59 percent true completion percentage is abysmal; 36th in the league. And Buffalo’s pass catchers have the sixth-highest average target separation. Even when receivers are open and holding onto the ball, Allen is struggling.

While the rushing production will prop up Allen’s fantasy production on occasion, he has yet to crack 250 passing yards in a game and has only thrown for multiple touchdowns once. Half of his career starts have resulted in multiple interceptions.

This offseason will undoubtedly see headlines hopeful that a new coach or a new addition through free agency/draft will fix Allen’s lifelong accuracy woes. The track record of quarterbacks that enter the league with historically bad completion rates like this is nil.

Baker Mayfield Is A Top-5 Fantasy Quarterback

A quarterback who does excel at delivering the football with touch and accuracy is No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield. He has plenty of arm strength himself too, evidenced by a 60-mile per hour Throw Velocity, placing Mayfield in the 97th percentile alongside Patrick Mahomes. Yet rather than focusing on ability, sports talk radio obsessed with what Mayfield was saying and doing when the football wasn’t in his hands instead missed out on one of the best quarterback prospects to ever enter the NFL. This is based on a 98th percentile College QBR, a 99th percentile collegiate yards per attempt, and a 100th percentile Breakout Age as the first true freshman walk-on to ever start a season opener for a major college program.

Since Week 9 — when the Cleveland Browns finally let go of Hue Jackson and installed Freddie Kitchens as their offensive coordinator — Mayfield is completing 71 percent of his passes. During that seven-game span, Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns to only five interceptions and is averaging a stout 8.5 yards per attempt. When extrapolated over 16 games, Mayfield would be compiling nearly 4,300 yards and have close to 40 touchdowns. Reminder: he’s a rookie.

And let’s not pretend Mayfield was set up for success in Cleveland, where Jackson didn’t plan to start him as a rookie. In fact, Mayfield never got a practice rep at any point with the first-team until Week 4. On the year, Mayfield’s receivers have already dropped 31 passes on him, which ranks No. 4 in the league.

The sky is the limit for Mayfield in year two, where he’ll have a full training camp as the starting quarterback under the guidance of a more stable coaching staff. Adding a true alpha wide receiver to the mix wouldn’t hurt either. Regardless, Mayfield has made a living spreading the ball to any receiver in any location at any time. That’s not unlike his best comparable player on PlayerProflier, Drew Brees.

It’s no wonder Mayfield wakes up feeling dangerous.

Dalvin Cook Is A 2019 League Winner

How many times will the term “injury prone” be attached to Dalvin Cook this offseason? I’ll take the over on any number you have in mind. Not only did Cook, who has three shoulder surgeries in his past, tear his ACL has a rookie, but a hamstring issue caused him to miss four games this year. That injury clearly limited his ability in several other contests.

Zooming out, Cook was one of the more durable and prolific collegiate workhorse backs to enter the NFL in recent years. His Florida State résumé features a 38.8-percent (86th percentile) College Dominator Rating and a 6.8 (90th percentile) college yards per carry.

Regardless of what the Vikings offense looks like in 2019, Cook is prepared for it. He’s been highly productive and efficient in the passing game, as his 11.6-percent (81st percentile) College Target Share has translated to nearly 4.5 targets per game this year and a top-10 catch rate among running backs.

Cook also demonstrated impressive elusiveness. Though he’s only played in 10 games (only a handful at 100-percent health), his 65 evaded tackles ranks No. 8 in the NFL, and more impressively, his 41.1-percent Juke Rate ranks No. 2 among qualified NFL running backs.

Thankfully, Cook appears to be closing out the 2018 season healthy and could come at a discount in fantasy drafts next year. He has been highly successful when healthy, as well. Avoiding a fear-based decision could result in a 2019 league winner because of the high-level efficiency that the all-terrain Cook has shown — regardless of situation.

Corey Davis Breaks Out — Big Time

The traditional box score-obsessed fantasy manger likely wants no part of Corey Davis. He’ll enter the 2019 season as a third-year player at age 24 having failed to score a touchdown as a rookie and likely failing to hit 900 receiving yards in year two. Furthermore, the Tennessee Titans offense has essentially failed to find an identity each of the last two seasons, waiting until December to finally turn things over to Derrick Henry.

There’s still plenty to get excited about with Davis — who hit his ceiling as a top-five wide receiver three times this year — even if Marcus Mariota will begin his critical fifth season as enigmatic as he’s ever been. Frankly, it’s surprising Davis has been this good while dealing with the headwind that is Mariota’s seemingly non-stop arm issues.

Most fantasy gamers would be shocked to learn that the enigmatic Davis’ 26.5-percent Target Share ranked No. 10 among all wide receivers in 2018. Furthermore, his 15 red zone targets and nine end zone targets are also extremely high for the position. Davis will also finish the season top-20 in Air Yards. On the negative side of the ledger, Davis’ 2.2 Yards After the Catch per Target was one of the lowest in the league, while his 10 drops ranked No. 2 among NFL wide receiver.

Chasing the targets and Air Yards should pay off for patient fantasy gamers next season. If Davis does not fire, crank up the Dynasty Truther Machine. PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings continues to slot Davis in as a top-20 WR for keeper-league formats. In traditional seasonal leagues, Davis figures to be a top value.

Third-year breakout wide receiver narratives aren’t as much of a thing as they used to be; not in an era where plenty of rookies have been producing right away. Traditionalists may see a bust in Davis, but that’s clearly a mistake. Davis is extremely talented and has good underlining numbers despite adverse conditions that have been outside of his control.

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