Football betting, odds: Here's a best bet for every USFL game this weekend

Week 7 in the USFL gave us some much needed separation in the standings. The Birmingham Stallions now sit at the top of the league with a 5-2 record after a hard fought 24-20 win over the New Orleans Breakers. While most teams are pushing towards making the last few weeks meaningful, both the New Jersey Generals and Pittsburgh Maulers dropped to 2-5, putting themselves at risk of falling out of the playoff picture in the North Division.

Last weekend’s results didn’t yield as much movement in the futures market as I expected, as the Stallions are still outpacing the league as the favorites at +325. The Houston Gamblers, a team I took a position on last week at +550, remain at the same odds after a disappointing 23-20 loss to the Memphis Showboats. Memphis is surprisingly still available at +800, despite winning its fourth straight game and sitting only one game behind Birmingham at 4-3.

My best advice for betting on Week 8 is to trust your instincts, and don’t let line movement influence your decisions. Much like we saw in the second half of the XFL season, the USFL is a very inefficient market. If you faded the line movement on the sides, you would have swept the board in each of the past two weeks. That’s certainly not a reason to blindly place a wager, but it’s important to keep in mind if you see the line moving against your bet. These trends speak to the week-to-week variance in smaller leagues, which is why I primarily prefer to target the totals. Now let’s get into my bets for this weekend.

Houston Gamblers -2.5 at Pittsburgh Maulers (O/U 43.5)

These are two teams coming off really disappointing losses. After a brutal start to the season, Pittsburgh looked like it was pulling it together behind its defense, but that side of the ball fell apart in a 37-31 loss to Philadelphia. The Stars ran for 114 yards on the ground and scored touchdowns in three of four red zone trips, after failing to score an offensive touchdown the previous two weeks.

Sitting at 2-5, a loss wouldn’t mathematically eliminate the Maulers, but it would put their season on real thin ice. The Gamblers are coming off a disappointing 23-20 loss to Memphis where they tried to dink and dunk their way down the field against a solid Showboats pass rush. They will have to open things up if they want to have success against the Maulers defense, and I’m not sure they can protect QB Kenji Bahar well enough to get that done. The gravy train on Pittsburgh unders finally dried up after six weeks, but I am getting right in the chow line. The scoring was fueled by turnovers and special teams scores, and I am betting that game was an outlier. Best Bet: Under 43.5

Philadelphia Stars +6 at Birmingham Stallions (O/U 45.5)

The Stars hit rock bottom in Week 4 after an embarrassing 41-16 loss to Houston. However, they have turned their season around with three straight wins and now sit with the third-shortest odds in the futures market (+500). Much like last season, Philadelphia seems to be peaking at the right time.

The Stallions are one of the few teams in the league that can pull away from opponents with their high-powered offense. Three of their five wins have come by two scores or more. However, I can’t swallow laying six points with a team that allows the most yards per game in the league.

The Stars offense is coming off its best performance, and the Stallions defense is a great matchup to continue the momentum. Dogs are 6-2 straight up over the last two weeks, so I will take the six points with the team on a three-game heater. Best Bet: PHI +6

Memphis Showboats +1.5 at New Jersey Generals (O/U 41.5)

I can't stress how important transparency is in sports betting, so I have no problem throwing my hands up on this one. Four-game winning streak meets four-game losing streak, and guess who's favored? Of course it’s the New Jersey Generals. Why? I honestly don’t know.

After a 2-1 start, the Generals caught four straight L’s, including an embarrassing 25-22 loss to Michigan. And it wasn’t a fluke loss to the Panthers, who entered the game at the bottom of most of the power rankings. N.J. was outgained 373-258 in total yards and 6.1-5.5 in yards per play. Don’t be fooled by Memphis’ 4-3 record. The Showboats are winners of four straight and 4-1 since they turned to QB Cole Kelley to run the offense. They have benefitted from turnover creation on defense, which is why I think the market is waiting for regression to hit, but I am not convinced it comes this week.

The Generals haven’t won the turnover battle in a game since Week 2, and have more giveaways on the season than Memphis. This is a “trust your gut” game, and I can’t let the market influence my position. Best Bet: Memphis +1.5

Michigan Panthers +3 at New Orleans Breakers (O/U 43.5)

The Panthers breathed new life into their season with an upset win over New Jersey. Can they do it again against a reeling New Orleans team that's lost three straight? Anything is possible, but I am certainly not comfortable laying points with New Orleans. The Breakers continue to shoot themselves in the foot on offense with poor execution, spotty pass protection and turnovers.

Michigan’s best player on defense, USFL sack leader Breeland Speaks, should disrupt the New Orleans offense enough to keep this game competitive. After a 45-point outburst against Birmingham in Week 3, New Orleans hasn’t eclipsed 20 points in its last four games. Michigan is one of three teams that average fewer than 20 points per game (17.3), and last week's win was the first time in five weeks they scored more than 13. I don’t trust either of these offenses to get right, so I am going to bet against both. Best Bet: Under 43.5