Georgia Tech vs. Florida State (-4)
Georgia Tech finds themselves in the ACC Championship as Virginia had to opt-out due to a positive COVID test. Tech bettors rejoice as they were +2500 to win the conference title as seedings were released. A big payday could be in store, but chances are Leonard Hamilton and the defending ACC Champion Seminoles are ready to rock and roll.
These squads met twice already this season, splitting 1-1 on each other's courts. Now on a neutral floor in Greensboro, NC, let us examine what to expect.
In the past six games, Florida State has won five meetings versus Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets won the previous meeting, 76-65, snapping the Seminoles' five-game winning streak in the series. After that win over Florida State, Georgia Tech went 1-3 SU (25%) before going on a season-high seven-game winning streak that leads to them to this moment.
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In those seven games, the Yellow Jackets have scored 69 or more points in all. Florida State failed to score 70 points in four-of-21 games this season and Georgia Tech was one of them (Indiana, Clemson, UNC). The game totals set at 148.5, a number they have not hit in the prior six meetings.
The Seminoles' RayQuan Evans (5.8 PPG, 2.2 RPG) missed Florida State's win over Georgia Tech and Anthony Polite (9.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) missed the loss. Evans recorded five points, five rebounds and three assists in 27 minutes versus Tech this season, while Polite totaled 10 points, three assists and two boards in 34 minutes.
Both players suited up versus UNC last night, but only combined for six points and four rebounds. Expect better efforts today from the upperclassmen. Georgia Tech's Bubba Parham (6.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG) was the only player to miss a Florida State matchup. Purham did not score a point versus the Seminoles in the meeting he did suit up for.
Florida State has a significant rebounding advantage over Georgia Tech, especially on the offensive glass. The Seminoles rank second in the ACC with a 34.4% offensive rebounding percentage. Georgia Tech ranks third to last in the conference with a 30.5% defensive rebounding percentage and second to last with a 21.4% offensive rebounding percentage.
Florida State out-rebounded Georgia Tech 29-22 and 39-29 in both meetings. We also witnessed different shooting efforts from this Florida State squad between the home and away meetings this season.
The Seminoles went 3-of-14 (21.4%) from three and 14-of-23 (60.9%) from the free-throw line in the loss at Georgia Tech. In the win at home, Florida State went 8-of-17 (47.1%) from three and 12-of-16 (75%) from the charity stripe. Huge difference and with the ACC Championship on the line, I expect to see more of a home-like Seminoles squad.
When Georgia Tech went to Florida State, they shot 5-of-20 (20%) from deep. In the Yellow Jackets' ACC losses, they went over 33.3% versus Virginia once and failed to against Duke, Clemson, Louisville, Florida State and Virginia again - four-of-five road games.
The Yellow Jackets live or die by the three, ranking third in the conference with a 36.0% rate from deep. If they are not hitting from three, this could get ugly as they allow opponents to hit 36.1% on the season (285th) and already proved they cannot rebound with the Seminoles.
Florida State will be playing its fifth back-to-back in the last three seasons. The Seminoles are 3-1 SU (75%) in those efforts, with the lone loss to Duke in the 2019 ACC Championship Game. Yes, the Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones' Duke squad.
Georgia Tech has not won an ACC Tournament since 1993. This moment to me, seems like it could be too big for the Yellow Jackets despite them being hot entering March. I will be backing the Seminoles -4 (-115) on PointsBet for an ACC repeat performance.
Game Pick: Seminoles -4 (1.5u)