What do Florida’s playoff chances look like after Week 4?

·2 min read

The Gators already have a loss on the 2021 season, which certainly makes a playoff berth an uphill battle with little room for error. But with that being said, Florida made Alabama look vulnerable in that game, and if it can successfully pull off an upset against Georgia, it will likely draw a rematch with the Crimson Tide with a College Football Playoff spot on the line.

Currently, ESPN’s CFP model gives UF an 11% chance to make the playoff as things currently stand. Those odds aren’t great, but the model also allows us to test multiple scenarios and see how they affect Florida’s odds. For example, if the Gators are able to win out the rest of the year (including the SEC Championship), they have a 98% chance of making the CFP field.

However, those odds decrease significantly (though not to zero) if the Gators were to lose to the Crimson Tide in a rematch in the conference title game. In that circumstance, a two-loss UF team would have a 42% chance of making the field.

Obviously, dropping another game in the regular season would seriously dampen those hopes, but it wouldn’t end them entirely. If Florida loses to Georgia, it only has a 17% chance of making the CFP as a non-division champion. However, if that loss is someone other than Georgia and a two-loss UF team is somehow able to win the East and then the conference, it would likely become the first two-loss playoff team in history with an 83% chance to make the field.

These odds are obviously very fluid, and the common theme is that if Florida does not win the SEC, it will need a lot of outside help to crack the playoff field. But despite the early loss, a playoff appearance is still absolutely on the table for this team if it can avoid further slipups.

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