FiveThirtyEight updates Ohio State’s College Football Playoff chances after initial CFP Rankings

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Earlier this week we told you what Ohio State football’s chances of making the College Football Playoff were according to the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight. We’ve been keeping track of those odds based on whatever genius-level formulas go into those sort of things over there, and have been checking in once a week.

However, with the release of the first set of College Football Playoff Rankings, FiveThirtyEight has updated those odds a wee-bit because it’s now a new dataset nobody had up until this point. So, we headed on over to the Playoff Predictor to see what has changed, and sure enough, there has been some movement.

As a reminder, here’s how things stood before the initial CFP Rankings came out Tuesday night.

So, how much did these odds move? We’re going to run you through the top teams once again to let you know what kind of change in odds were talking about with Ohio State and any other team that has a greater than 10% chance according to FiveThirtyEight.

We’ll also throw in a team’s chances of making the playoff if it wins out, and what the change in percentage was since the rankings were released Tuesday night.

Baylor (7-1) - CFP Ranking (12)

Oct 30, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Gerry Bohanon (11) celebrates a 31-24 win over the Texas Longhorns during an NCAA football game at McLane Stadium. Credit: Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – at TCU
11/13 – vs. Oklahoma
11/20 – at Kansas State
11/27 – vs. Texas Tech

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

11%

Chances if win out

95%

Notre Dame (7-1) - CFP Ranking (10)

Sep 25, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Brian Kelly instructs players during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Soldier Field. Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – vs. Navy
11/13 – at Virginia
11/20 – vs. Georgia Tech
11/27 – at Stanford

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

12% (down from 14%)

Chances if win out

31% (down from 34%)

Wake Forest (8-0) - CFP Ranking (9)

Sept. 30, 2017; Winston-Salem, NC, USA; A closeup view of a Wake Forest Demon Deacons helmet during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at BB&T Field. Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – at North Carolina
11/13 – vs. NC State
11/20 – at Clemson
11/27 – at Boston College

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

13% (down from 14%)

Chances if win out

97% (up from 94%)

Michigan (7-1) - CFP Ranking (7)

Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97), linebacker Josh Ross (12), and defensive tackle Christopher Hinton (15) get ready during second-half action against the Western Michigan Broncos Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – vs. Indiana
11/13 – at Penn State
11/20 – at Maryland
11/27 – vs. Ohio State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

13% (up from 11%)

Chances if win out

64% (up from 59%)

Oklahoma State (7-1) - CFP Ranking (11)

Oct 30, 2021; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy looks up at the scoreboard during the fourth quarter against Kansas Jayhawks at Boone Pickens Stadium. Oklahoma State won 55-3. Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – at West Virginia
11/13 – vs. TCU
11/20 – at Texas Tech
11/27 – vs. Oklahoma

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

16% (no change)

Chances if win out

98% (up from 97%)

Michigan State (8-0) - CFP Ranking (3)

Oct 9, 2021; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans running back Kenneth Walker III (9) carries the ball past Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive lineman Ifeanyi Maijeh (88) during the first half at SHI Stadium. Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – at Purdue
11/13 – vs. Maryland
11/20 – at Ohio State
11/27 – vs. Penn State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

25% (up from 22%)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

Oregon (7-1) - CFP Ranking (4)

LOOK. Oregon Ducks reveals uniform combination for Ohio State game.
LOOK. Oregon Ducks reveals uniform combination for Ohio State game.

Dec 6, 2019; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks mascot Puddles poses with a rose during the Pac-12 Conference championship game against the Utah Utes at Levi’s Stadium. Oregon defeated Utah 37-15 to earn a Rose Bowl berth. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – at Washington
11/13 – vs. Washington State
11/20 – at Utah
11/27 – vs. Oregon State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

29% (up from 23%)

Chances if win out

96% (up from 89%)

Cincinnati (8-0) - CFP Ranking (6)

Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell leads the Cincinnati Bearcats onto the field to warm up before the NCAA football game between Cincinnati Bearcats and Murray State Racers on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – vs. Tulsa
11/12 – at USF
11/20 – vs. SMU
11/26 – at Eastern Carolina

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

31% (down from 41%)

Chances if win out

63% (down from 77%)

Ohio State (7-1) - CFP Ranking (5)

Big Ten football power rankings after Week 9 | Buckeyes Wire
Big Ten football power rankings after Week 9 | Buckeyes Wire

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) hands off to running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) during the first quarter of the NCAA football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – at Nebraska
11/13 – vs. Purdue
11/20 – vs. Michigan State
11/27 – at Michigan

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

41% (no change)

Chances if win out

99% (up from 98%)

Oklahoma (9-0) - CFP Ranking (8)

Oklahoma’s Tyrese Robinson (52) celebrates with Kennedy Brooks (26) after a touchdown during the Red River Showdown college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Texas (UT) Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/13 – at Baylor
11/20 – vs. Iowa State
11/27 – at Oklahoma State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

46% (down from 50%)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

Alabama (7-1) - CFP Ranking (2)

Oct 23, 2021; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young (9) celebrates after a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – vs. LSU
11/13 – vs. New Mexico State
11/20 – vs. Arkansas
11/27 – at Auburn

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

54% (up from 52%)

Chances if win out

> 99% (no change)

Georgia (8-0) - CFP Ranking (1)

Nov 15, 2014; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia mascot UGA IX is shown on the field during their win over the Auburn Tigers at Sanford Stadium. Georgia won 34-7. Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

11/6 – vs. Missouri
11/13 – at Tennesee
11/20 – vs. Charleston Southern
11/27 – at Georgia Tech

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

79% (up from 78%)

Chances if win out

>99% (no change)

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