FiveThirtyEight updates College Football Playoff predictions and odds. How far did Ohio State fall?

·5 min read

The College Football Playoff picture has been turned upside down because of some results during Rivalry Week. The biggest blow comes to none other than Ohio State, who got physically dominated by a hungrier and better prepared Michigan team Saturday (when’s the last time we could say that?).

More than likely, that means the Buckeyes are out of the playoff picture. However, the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight still think there is an outside shot that OSU could get its way into all the fun, but it would take mass chaos and some rogue type of voting by the CFP committee. And probably much more that we can’t think of.

We’ve been following the College Football Predictions and odds at FiveThirtyEight twice a week, and we’ve got the latest from those brainiacs just prior to the latest release of the CFP Rankings.

Where is Ohio State now, and where are the rest of the contenders?

Ohio State (10-2)

Sat., Nov. 20, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Garrett Wilson (5) celebrates after a touchdown with teammate Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Chris Olave (2) during the first quarter of an NCAA Division I football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Michigan State Spartans at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joshua A. Bickel/Columbus Dispatch via USA TODAY Network. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • Regular season complete

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 3% (down from 52%)

Chances if win out
  • N/A

Oregon (10-2)

LOOK. Oregon Ducks reveals uniform combination for Ohio State game.
LOOK. Oregon Ducks reveals uniform combination for Ohio State game.

Dec 6, 2019; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks mascot Puddles poses with a rose during the Pac-12 Conference championship game against the Utah Utes at Levi’s Stadium. Oregon defeated Utah 37-15 to earn a Rose Bowl berth. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Utah in Pac-12 Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 7% (up from 3%)

Chances if win out
  • 15% (not in last projections)

Iowa (10-2)

Big Ten football and biggest game expert picks and predictions, Week 7
Big Ten football and biggest game expert picks and predictions, Week 7

Iowa junior center Tyler Linderbaum reacts after the Hawkeyes secured a first down in the second quarter against Penn State at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Michigan in Big Ten Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 8% (not in last projections)

Chances if win out
  • 29% (not in last projections)

Notre Dame (11-1)

Sep 5, 2021; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Joe Wilkins Jr. (5) celebrates with running back Kyren Williams (23) after a touchdown in the second quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • Regular season complete

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 14% (down from 28%)

Chances if win out
  • N/A

Baylor (10-2)

Nov 13, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; A view of the Baylor Bears students and fans as they celebrate with linebacker Terrel Bernard (2) on the field after the game between the Baylor Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners at McLane Stadium. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Oklahoma State in Big 12 Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 24% (not in last projections)

Chances if win out
  • 61% (not in last projections)

Oklahoma State (11-1)

Oct. 30, 2021; Stillwater; Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy looks up at the scoreboard during the fourth quarter against Kansas Jayhawks at Boone Pickens Stadium. Oklahoma State won 55-3. Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Baylor in Big 12 Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 60% (up from 41%)

Chances if win out
  • 97% (down from 98%)

Cincinnati (12-0)

Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell leads the Cincinnati Bearcats onto the field to warm up before the NCAA football game between Cincinnati Bearcats and Murray State Racers on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati.

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Houston in AAC Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 60% (up from 56%)

Chances if win out
  • 81% (down from 88%)

Alabama (11-1)

Oct 9, 2021; College Station, Texas, USA; Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner (15) leaves the field after Texas A&M hit a field goal as time expired at Kyle Field. Texas A&M defeated Alabama 41-38 on a field goal as time expired. Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Georgia in SEC Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 63% (up from 56%)

Chances if win out
  • >99% (no change)

Michigan (11-1)

Oct 2, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh walks on the field during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Iowa in Big Ten Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 75% (up from 30%)

Chances if win out
  • >99% (no change)

Georgia (12-0)

Sep 25, 2021; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) runs the ball during the first half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium. Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Remaining Schedule

  • vs. Alabama in SEC Championship game

Chances of making the College Football Playoff

  • 84% (up from 82%)

Chances if win out
  • >99% (no change)

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