FiveThirtyEight gives Oregon Ducks increased chance to make College Football Playoff

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It came as a bit of a shock to the sporting world on Tuesday night when the first official College Football Playoff rankings were released, and it was the Oregon Ducks who sat in the No. 4 spot, ahead of both Ohio State and Cincinnati.

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Whether you agree or disagree with the initial rankings, it’s clear that the Ducks have a much better chance to make it to the playoff than we originally though after the loss to Stanford earlier in the year. While we knew there was still a chance, many believed that they’d have to rely on a loss from someone above them in order to get in. However, the committee seemed to say on Tuesday night that if Oregon continues to win, they’re in.

What’s the likelihood of that? Well, according to FiveThirtyEight, it’s increasing from weeks past:

Courtesy of FIveThirtyEight

According to the FiveThirtyEight website, the Ducks’ chances have actually increased since this graphic came out, with Oregon now holding a 29% chance to get into the playoff. With the committee ranking them ahead of Cincinnati on Tuesday night, it became clear that strength of schedule matters, and their spot ahead of Ohio State proves how valuable head-to-head wins are.

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There is still over a month left in the season, so we will see how things shake out, but you have to be feeling pretty good as an Oregon fan on Wednesday morning.

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