Which first-year head coach has best opportunity to mimic TCU?
Everyone wants to know who the next best thing is in college football. To everyone’s surprise, it was the TCU Horned Frogs last season. Time and time again they defied the odds with their epic comebacks until the final game, there was no comeback this time.
Still, TCU achieved something that the Big 12 and Oklahoma failed to do in three opportunities, make the CFP championship game. It was even more remarkable that first-year head coach Sonny Dykes did this with Gary Patterson’s players that finished 5-7 the previous year.
Could there be another “Sonny Dykes” moment in 2023? If so, which first-year head coach could be the one to get it done? There was no shortage of candidates across the college football landscape. From Luke Fickell to Trent Dilfer, the coaching carousel was getting almost as much action as the transfer portal.
After thinking it over, I broke down my five candidates who could do it. While achieving what TCU did in 2022 isn’t probable, it certainly is possible.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin Badgers
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We will start with a head coach that has made it to the College Football Playoffs. Luke Fickell shocked the CFB landscape during the 2021 season when he led the Cincinnati Bearcats to the CFP semifinal game in the Cotton Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
While Fickell and the Bearcats didn’t make it to the championship game, it seems that he knows the formula. At Wisconsin, he should have better resources to do it quicker than in his fifth year in the program as he did in his previous stop.
Matt Rhule, Nebraska Cornhuskers
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Despite his recent run at the NFL level, new Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule is known as a program builder. He turned Temple around in four seasons going from 2-10 to back-to-back 10-win campaigns before leaving for Baylor. The Bears went from 1-11 to 11-3 in his final season, losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship.
He inherits a team that hasn’t sniffed the Big Ten title game since their inaugural season in the conference, losing to Wisconsin 70-31. Rhule will need to rebuild the roster but he certainly has shown the ability to turn things around. The transfer portal should help in getting immediate contributors.
Deion Sanders, Colorado Buffaloes
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The dark horse of the category just might be Coach Prime. Deion Sanders left Jackson State after finishing 27-6 over three seasons. He won 11+ games in each of the past two years. There is plenty of work to be done but he is a splashy name that can lure top-level talent to Boulder.
He lured the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 class to Jackson State and Travis Hunter opted to follow his head coach to Colorado. Sanders also brought his son and quarterback Shedeur as part of the No. 2 transfer class in the country. Regardless of how it plays out in 2023, Colorado will be a hot ticket next season.
Hugh Freeze, Auburn Tigers
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After a tumultuous two-year run at Auburn for Bryan Harsin, new athletic director John Cohen went with a familiar name in Hugh Freeze. The head coach was at Ole Miss when Cohen served as the associate athletic director for their rivals, Mississippi State.
While Freeze has a very questionable past, he is viewed as a good offensive mind. He took a transfer from Auburn and turned him into an NFL draft pick at quarterback. He has some pieces in place and gave an immediate bump on the recruiting trails. Coaching in the SEC West makes his path to the CFP more difficult but it is possible if he catches lighting in a bottle.
Tom Herman, Florida Atlantic Owls
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We needed to have at least one Group of Five team represented on the list, so why not Florida Atlantic and Tom Herman? The newest FAU head coach was out of football last season after he wasn’t retained as an analyst with the Chicago Bears. Prior to that, he enjoyed a four-year run at Texas where he won four bowl games, including the 2018 Sugar Bowl over Georgia.
Herman’s history as a head coach showed that he can win, if in the right environment. Prior to his time at Texas, Herman became a hot name as the head coach at Houston. As the head man in charge of the Cougars, Herman won 22 games with wins over the Oklahoma Sooners and Florida State during that time. Sure FAU is the longest of longshots among the five teams listed, but we have seen Herman exceed expectations in the G5 before.
