Fantasy running backs who could suffer/soar behind injured offensive lines
By John Evans
Special to Yahoo Sports
This time of year, it seems like almost everyone in the NFL is playing hurt. It’s easy to lose track of who’s on the wrong side of questionable and how it might have a fantasy football impact. But the health of an offensive line can be critical for running backs. If a unit has had eight-to-10 games to build cohesion and confidence in one another, they’ll probably open wider running lanes against one of the league’s many banged-up defenses.
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If a line is down to its third-stringers, has a revolving door at one or more positions, or is fielding multiple wounded starters, they’ll be easy pickings — especially for a front seven that’s clicking on all cylinders. That can certainly shave points off their RBs’ totals.
Today, we’ll look at four backs whose lines could be compromised by injury. With Thanksgiving just around the corner, I’ll use turkeys to indicate my confidence in their ability to feast on the competition. Four turkeys suggests that their success should be abundant. One turkey means that fantasy gamers may go hungry if they play these guys every week.
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Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Terron Armstead has arguably been the NFL’s best tackle this year. He is certainly an elite run blocker. Armstead will be out for as long as a month with a pectoral injury. In steps the once-and-future starter Jermon Bushrod, who is a big downgrade at this stage of his decade-long career. The former Pro Bowler has been in decline since 2015.
While the Saints are accustomed to playing without Armstead — he missed six games last season and has never played a full 16 — it’s not exactly good news. Still, Armstead’s absence affects Mark Ingram more than Alvin Kamara, who generates substantial fantasy production through the air. New Orleans may see its adjusted line yards metric slip from second overall in the estimation of Football Outsiders, but the run blocking won’t fall off a cliff.
On to the schedule. Week 11 brings a Philadelphia team that has been gashed in two out of their last three games, including Week 10’s 151-yard performance by Ezekiel Elliott. Though their front is formidable, the Eagles have been forced to deploy a nearly full-time nickel defense to camouflage the weak spots in their secondary. That was before top corner Ronald Darby tore his ACL last week.
This one should tell us a lot about the offensive line’s ability to regroup. Kamara remains a no-brainer play in a potential high-scoring affair. From there, he faces a series of softer defenses before Week 16’s showdown with Pittsburgh, the only scary squad on the slate. While Saints’ backs should find conventional runs to be tougher sledding without Armstead, this is not a murderer’s row of run defenses. I’ve lost little confidence in Kamara.
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Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz remains the mainstay of the Kansas City line, but the Chiefs have now lost two Week 1 starters and a key reserve. The center position is pivotal on inside runs, and Mitch Morse has been in the concussion protocol since Week 4. While fill-in Austin Reiter has been pretty solid over the last three games, guards Cam Erving and Andrew Wylie aren’t getting it done as run blockers.
The Chiefs have been most effective on off-tackle runs, which makes sense given that it’s where their best players are. Despite the line’s chemistry being disrupted by lineup changes, the Chiefs’ running game remains effective with only six teams averaging more yards per carry. The team checks in at a respectable 13th in rushing yards per game.
Trailing only Todd Gurley and Kamara in Football Outsiders’ metric to grade running backs, Kareem Hunt is having a great season. He hasn’t been breaking off the long runs that helped him lead the league in rushing last year, but that might change this week against a Rams defense that has allowed nine runs of 20 or more yards. Only six teams have been more susceptible to second-level breakdowns.
After this blow-up spot for Hunt, the Chiefs go on bye and then travel to Oakland, a destination every RB loves to visit. The skies darken from there, though, as Kansas City finishes the fantasy schedule by hosting the Ravens and Chargers before heading to Seattle. Arizona’s less-than-formidable front bottled up Hunt in Week 10, so these tough draws could pose a problem for Hunt and his makeshift line. Still, if Morse returns (it’s a good sign he’s not on IR) and they suffer no further injuries, this offense should remain a powerhouse.
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David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
The promotion of Bruce Arians disciple Byron Leftwich to offensive coordinator has been a shot in the arm for the Cardinals’ offense in general and David Johnson specifically. Granted, Johnson’s 183 total yards and two TDs came against a porous Kansas City defense, but Week 10’s results were encouraging. Unfortunately, injury gremlins continue to torment the Arizona locker room. Guard Justin Pugh is out for the year, joining center A.Q. Shipley on IR. Guard Mike Iupati has played one game since hurting his back in Week 6; who knows when he’ll be back on the field.
While tackles DJ Humphries and Andre Smith have been solid run blockers, this was not one of the deepest and most talented corps in the league at full strength. In July, I pegged the Cardinals’ line as a unit that could crumble if injuries struck. Just as Johnson was gaining momentum, he could be swallowed whole by defenders sweeping through this ravaged front five.
Fortunately for Johnson and his blockers, the scheduling gods are smiling down on them. Beyond a tilt with the Chargers, who are a middle-of-the-road run defense, the Cardinals face a series of front sevens that range from permissive (Packers and Rams) to seriously compromised (Lions and Falcons). It would be difficult to concoct an easier path for Johnson. The line’s woes should temper our expectations for him, but with a functional scheme and a player of D.J.’s talent, RB2 numbers seem like a safe bet.
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James White/Sony Michel, New England Patriots
The Patriots’ offensive line has been dealing with injuries of late, with several players missing time. But the interior is exemplary, as center David Andrews and guard Shaq Mason are doing yeoman work. While Mason has battled a calf injury, he should be fine after New England’s Week 11 bye. This group is currently sixth in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric. That said, Pats backs are only producing 108.5 rushing yards per game at a modest 3.9 yards-per-carry clip. Sony Michel has dealt with injuries of his own and James White’s bread and butter is catching the ball out of the backfield. Uncharacteristically, Tom Brady and company are “just” 10th in total yards this year.
New England’s remaining adversaries are a mixed bag, with Minnesota and Pittsburgh being challenging matchups and the Jets and Dolphins being favorable. Week 16’s opponent, Buffalo, gave this offense trouble in their last meeting. It’s not an ideal slate. Will the team’s nagging injuries linger, or will they be left behind after 14 days of rest? A rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski would be a big boost, presenting more scoring opportunities for an offense already averaging 28 points per game.
Before hurting his knee, Michel reeled off 316 yards in games against Miami, Indy and K.C. Admittedly, that’s a trio of unimposing run defenses, but it was a sign of what he could do. I expect similar production in the soft matchups and a reliance on goal-line opportunities for fantasy points in the tough ones.
White’s numbers seem destined to drop, whether due to Michel’s return, Gronkowski’s re-emergence or simple regression to the mean. But this well-coached line should get healthier and the schedule isn’t that daunting. The Patriots’ attack tends to tail off late in the year. This season, it may actually find a higher gear.
