Fantasy Football Week 14 Booms and Busts: Trevor Lawrence growing up

I don’t ask for much, really. When I see a so-called generational talent like Trevor Lawrence go at the top of the 2021 draft, I want him to be great. I want us to settle in for a decade of fun.

I don’t ask for much, really. When a talented tight end like Evan Engram lands with a tight-end-friendly coach like Doug Pederson, I want at least occasional fireworks. I want a Circle of Trust player.

I don’t ask for much, really. When an offense gets Tennessee on the schedule, a clear funnel defense — the Titans stuff the run, can’t stop the pass — I want an aerial circus. I want big passing numbers. I want something I can sink my teeth into.

Don’t you love it when a plan comes together?

Lawrence was on point in Sunday’s 36-22 victory over Tennessee, completing 30-of-42 passes for 368 yards and three touchdowns. He wasn’t intercepted or sacked, and he added a short touchdown run to his juicy fantasy day. Lawrence missed some practice time due to a toe injury this week, but he looked healthy as a horse Sunday. The highlights sure are pretty.

Lawrence attacked all three levels of the field in this win. He made quick throws, short throws, medium throws, splash-play throws. He extended some plays with his legs. He was able to hit non-primary receivers as well as his main targets. Crushing against the leaky Titans pass defense doesn’t deserve a parade, but it’s nonetheless encouraging to see Lawrence developing into the player we all dreamed about two drafts ago.

Engram toyed with Tennessee all day, three hours of winning through scheme and athleticism. Pederson and Co. cooked up plenty of plays where Engram was wide open, and Engram also made a heck of a catch on the left sideline for his second touchdown. It added up to an 11-162-2 detonation, the slate-breaking performance of the day.

Zay Jones also outkicked his Week 14 projection (8-77-1), making a nifty touchdown catch off a deflection and commanding 12 targets. Jones could have gone nuclear if not for one bad drop and a second missed connection that was catchable, but the Jaguars are happy with what he’s provided them. He didn’t look like a viable NFL No. 2 receiver a few months ago, but he more or less fits that suit now.

Christian Kirk was the receiver left out, a 5-45-0 haul on seven targets. He still goes down as an obvious ADP winner for 2022, and the first target you’ll generally trust in this passing tree.

Lawrence needed to chuck it proactively because the Titans, as expected, suffocated the running game. Travis Etienne had just 32 yards on 17 carries, and was once again curiously ignored in the passing game (zero targets). What happened to the back who caught 85 passes his final two years at Clemson, from Lawrence, no less? The Jaguars have yet to unlock that package.

Hey, you can’t have everything.

The only downside to the Jaguars party is that the schedule gets much tougher moving forward. The Cowboys come to Jacksonville next week, and the swaggering Jets defense hosts them in Week 16. Lawrence is far from an automatic fantasy play against those teams. If you do get through to your fantasy title game, you’ll probably want to strongly consider the Jags on New Year’s Day. That’s when they travel to Houston, a date with the worst team in the NFL.

Clear your calendar now. Maybe there will be an eventual parade for the Jaguars, after all.

Speed Round

• Buffalo is still on the short list of Super Bowl contenders and the Jets defense can make a lot of offenses look bad. But it’s a shocker that Buffalo has gone this far with only two slam-dunk weekly fantasy starters, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis goes down as a net loss, Devin Singletary is a solid player with a capped ceiling, and the Dawson Knox matrix may never be understood.

• Philadelphia’s turned into a perfect fantasy team, with a core four that can score in the same game (it’s a fab five when Dallas Goedert returns, perhaps in Week 15). Patrick Mahomes would be the no-doubt No. 1 overall NFL pick if every franchise started over, but Jalen Hurts has justly entered the MVP debate. The voters love narratives and team success; Hurts will likely be the market favorite if the Eagles finish 15-2 or 16-1.

• Saquon Barkley has taken responsibility for his slump of late, but it’s pretty obvious he’s running hurt and working behind a makeshift offensive line that’s also been riddled with injury. The Giants have a difficult call to make on Barkley after the year. For fantasy purposes, it’s not so difficult — the idea is to be a year early on the falloffs, not a year late.

• Jared Goff’s target distribution was especially wide in the victory over Minnesota, and while that can be frustrating for fantasy managers, it underscores Goff’s confidence in his offense and his offensive line. A lot of these completions are going to non-primary receivers. The Lions have also rebuilt their defensive line nicely, and quietly; Dalvin Cook was tackled into a pretzel Sunday.

• I still don’t see a big difference between Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, but if both are healthy there’s going to be a heavy slant towards Mixon. Desperate Perine managers bailed out with a touchdown from a hurry-up package in the second quarter, but Mixon out touched Perine, 16-5.

• The Jets coaches deserve a bow for proactively handing their backfield to Bam Knight. The first Knight game, remember, was also tied to James Robinson being a healthy scratch. And even when Michael Carter came back Sunday, Knight had the keys. A lot of teams get personnel calls wrong in-season because of the shape of modern practice. Sometimes the teams defer to veterans or contracts, to a fault. I love that the Jets simply try to identify their best players and then use those players. Sounds overly simplistic, but this is far from automatic in the NFL.

• The Diontae Johnson touchdown challenge keeps chugging along. Johnson had a solid 6-82-0 line in the Baltimore loss, not a bad return — especially when you consider the Steelers used two quarterbacks. But that puts Johnson at 113 targets without a 2022 touchdown, and that's an NFL record. Nobody’s scoring much in this passing game; the the Steelers have a scant nine touchdown passes (one was from long-gone Chase Claypool), and no pass-catcher has spiked more than twice.

Sometimes these touchdown droughts present a buying opportunity; consider what Miles Sanders is doing this year, or what Melvin Gordon posted in his second year. But it's also possible Johnson is merely a slightly-above-average receiver, miscast as a possible star.

• Brock Purdy has the ultimate set of tools in the San Francisco offense, but he deserves credit for his poise, accuracy, and decision-making. He started four years at Iowa State, taking over the job as a true freshman. The Niners aren't drawing dead for 2022, even if Deebo Samuel needs to miss multiple weeks.

• The loaded 49ers defense can make almost any opponent look bad, so I’m not going to flip out about Tom Brady’s lousy day at San Francisco. But Brady obviously needs significant support to play above the league average these days, and maybe the Buccaneers can no longer provide it (the problem isn't just the players; Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich might be over their skis, too). My gut feeling is that Brady wants to keep playing, but he might look for a new 2023 team.

• Say this for Lovie Smith, he’s had the Texans ready to go the last two weeks. Perhaps the Deshaun Watson comeback game and the in-state battle against the Cowboys had something to do with it. The Texans probably should have won both games; Dallas needed a bunch of late breaks to steal Sunday’s game back. But maybe it all collapses against Kansas City next week.

• The overlooked story with the Seahawks is that the running game was mildly overrated with Kenneth Walker (some big runs, but low success rate) and it's shipwrecked with Rashaad Penny and Walker both hurt. Geno Smith also has to outscore his own defense, a unit that's fallen apart. Smith posted six straight 100-plus rating games before slipping Sunday; I've been impressed all season. Note one of the picks Sunday wasn't his fault; Smith thought he had a free play after the Panthers obviously jumped offside, but the officials somehow missed it.

• I don't have anything against Tua Tagovailoa, but it was cute when some national writers wanted to suggest he might be better than Justin Herbert. Let's stay grounded in reality.