By Jeff Hicks, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.
Here are the best plays for Week 14.
After multiple dud performances in October, the Detroit Lions offense scored 25-plus points in three of four November games. Their only poor scoring game was still a win for the team. Good play plus production at every level of the offense is a great recipe against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes allow the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks and the most to wide receivers. And Goff is a player to target at home in 2022. The Vikings also get a juicy matchup against the Lions' defense that is a run funnel, positioning opposing QBs and TEs to be elite targets for the final week of byes this NFL season. Vikings-Lions has the highest over/under of the week as of this writing.
The vibe is in shambles for the Rams, but at least the team has found ways to remain competitive on occasion. A short week against a bad defense makes Akers a solid play with six teams on bye. The Raiders rank 29th in RB aFPA and are susceptible through the air to the position. Akers has seen only one target in the past two games with John Wolford and Bryce Perkins at QB, and Kyren Williams has four. Akers is the lead back going forward, seeing 64% of carries in that span and accounting for two scores, both in Week 13. The Raiders have allowed two backs to find the end zone twice on the ground and have allowed multiple backs from the same team to reach double-digit fantasy points three times this season, with the most recent occurrence being in Week 12. Akers is a solid play, while Williams fits in as a FLEX option if you are hurting.
Going back to the well with Davis because it is clear the Jets' offense works better with Mike White at QB. Davis saw 10 targets and finished with 5/85/0 in New York’s loss to the Vikings last week. With the Bills likely to score despite a bad showing against the Jets in Week 9, this game will be in Orchard Park with a Bills-heavy crowd. The Jets had 57 and 28 pass attempts the past two games, and even if the middle is the expectation this week, White had 300-plus yards passing both times, another reason to start Davis for a second straight week. The Bills were limiting WR touchdowns for the first half of the season but have allowed multiple TDs to the position in two of the past three games.
Rising tides lift all ships, and Jalen Hurts is lifting all the ships. Stoll has played at least 74% of snaps in each game since Dallas Goedert was injured and gets the 29th-ranked defense in TE aFPA. It has been feast or famine despite playing so much because Stoll only has four targets across those three games. Evan Engram has been a popular streamer and may be available in your league, but in case he is not, Stoll has a better matchup than Engram despite his volatility in the passing game. That is also true for 85% of tight ends this season.
Seattle Seahawks defense vs. Carolina Panthers
You play the teams on your schedule, and credit to the Seahawks for producing fantasy points on defense. The Panthers give up the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to defenses and face a Seattle team averaging 1.8 takeaways per game (2.0 per game at home). The Seahawks are also 10th in sacks per game and 11th in sack percentage. Carolina is middle of the pack in sacks per game and sack percentage allowed, but Carolina's lack of talent on offense is enough to start the Seahawks.
Kirk Cousins @ Lions
Ryan Tannehill vs. Jaguars
Mac Jones @ Cardinals
D'Onta Foreman @ Seahawks
Zay Jones @ Titans
Brandon Powell vs. Raiders
Hunter Henry @ Cardinals
Ian Thomas @ Seahawks
Gerald Everett vs. Dolphins
Evan Engram @ Titans
Chiefs defense @ Broncos
Raiders defense @ Rams
Ravens defense @ Steelers
Cardinals defense vs. Patriots
More from 4for4.com: Tight end streaming for Week 14
Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur levels for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.