Fantasy Football: Five Week 11 matchups to exploit

By Jeff Hicks, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.

Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.

Here are the best plays for Week 11.

Daniel Jones vs. Detroit Lions

As fun as it would be to write all the silly jokes about the Broncos, I had to skip over Mr. Unlimited’s matchup against the worst team against quarterbacks. Jones in Week 11 gets the Lions, a team allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to signal callers. Detroit is one week removed from literally getting run over by Justin Fields. Side note: DeShon Elliott was the victim of that play, and he is one of the few to live to tell about tackling Derrick Henry in the open field. Elliott is currently in the concussion protocol.

Back to Jones. The Giants can take from the Bears' game plan the same way the Bears have taken from theirs. Jones can use his legs to deceive one of the least disciplined defenses in the NFL. Jones could be the third QB to surpass 50 rushing yards against the Lions (two other QBs have 40-plus rushing yards). Add in Saquon Barkley (Detroit allows an even 5.0 yards per carry to RBs) and enough receiving talent, and the Giants should flirt with the most points scored in Week 11. Another plus: the Giants appear to be far enough south to miss the expected snow that should alter the game played in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Washington Commanders running backs at Houston Texans

Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson scored in their Week 10 upset of the Eagles, taking advantage of Philly’s injuries on the defensive line. Even if the Texans were healthy, they’d be a target. The 32nd-ranked defense in aFPA to running backs is now tasked with a dual-threat backfield, a QB who can scramble, Curtis Samuel’s rushing prowess and Terry McLaurin. Houston has an opportunity to pass against the Commanders (29th in WR aFPA) because they are stout against RBs. Despite having an O/U of 40.5 as of Tuesday evening, I think this game has a chance to be one of the higher-scoring ones this week.

Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney at Atlanta Falcons

The night is darkest just before dawn, or something like that. The addition of Claypool to Chicago’s "receiver corps" has yet to produce much fruit, as he has just three receptions in two games. If the Bears want to be competitive with their defense in shambles, that has to change. Claypool’s size, Mooney running from the slot again and the Falcons having 1.5 healthy players in the secondary make this a great bye week fill-in situation. A.J. Terrell’s hamstring injury is the key to Claypool being a threat. Mooney is a lock in season-long lineups from the slot. We have seen Justin Fields explode in fantasy the past few weeks, and a matchup against the Falcons in a dome should lead to points and opportunities for both squads.

Bears WR Chase Claypool has yet to break out since arriving in Chicago. Is this the week that happens in fantasy?
Bears wide receiver Chase Claypool has yet to break out since arriving in Chicago. Is this the week that happens in fantasy? (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) (Michael Reaves via Getty Images)

Jack Stoll at Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Goedert (shoulder) is out for what could be a long time, meaning Stoll slots into a solid role in the Eagles' offense. Tight end continues to be a wasteland, making Stoll a premium addition in season-long with Gerald Everett hurt and Cade Otton, Evan Engram, Mike Gesicki and Noah Fant on bye. The Dolphins and Seahawks are two of the best TE matchups using aFPA, so hoping to pluck a player off the waiver wire leads to Stoll. The Colts allow 11.5 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends, including 4.8 receptions to the position per game. Grant Calcaterra could also be the tight end targeted the most, but I lean toward Stoll because he has been with the team for both of Nick Sirianni’s years with the Eagles.

New Orleans Saints defense vs. Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp just had ankle surgery and is on injured reserve. That should be all you need considering how poorly the Rams' offense has operated beyond their best offensive weapon. New Orleans can be vulnerable against QBs and RBs, but Matthew Stafford remains in concussion protocol as of Tuesday, and the Rams' RB room is hard-boiled booty. The Saints' defense is middle-of-the-pack in yards allowed per game but allows 50 fewer per game at home. The Saints' defense can get to the QB as well. Only five teams have a better sack percentage than New Orleans, and it is well-known the Rams have issues on the offensive line. Only the Colts allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to defenses than the Rams.

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Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur levels for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.

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