Fantasy Football Booms and Busts: Week 5 reminds us Taysom Hill can break the game
The New Orleans Saints had plenty of name-brand value in fantasy football draft season. Maybe you went for Alvin Kamara, or talked yourself into a Michael Thomas comeback. Perhaps you were intrigued by rookie wideout Chris Olave, or imagined a fun season from YOLO Jameis Winston.
Well, we’re in Week 5. And leave it to old Taysom Hill to once again break the game.
Hill was the star in Sunday’s 39-32 victory over Seattle, and he did it on a modest amount of opportunities. Hill ran for 112 yards and three touchdowns on nine carries, including a 60-yard jaunt, and his one pass was a 22-yard scoring strike to Adam Trautman. That’s four touchdowns — and 34 fantasy points — while handling the ball just 10 times.
If you wanted to deploy Hill this week in Yahoo, you had dealer’s choice. He’s easily the top tight end of the week, and only Josh Allen outscored him among quarterbacks ahead of the Sunday night and Monday night matchups. Your roster construction breaks the tie. Dual-position eligibility is a lovely thing.
Fantasy managers need to get over Hill’s limited snap counts every week. When the Saints have him on the field, the odds are extremely high that Hill will be involved in the play. And Hill gets a high amount of goal-line work — he’s clearly the team’s most explosive runner from short yardage. He’s like a baseball hitter who does all of his work at Coors Field, and with the bases loaded. A little Hill usage goes a long way.
And perhaps Hill’s workload will rise, anyway. The wonderful Olave left Sunday’s game with a concussion, and we don’t know when Thomas will be ready to return. And it’s not like Winston or Andy Dalton are salting away the quarterback position, either. Hill probably isn’t seen as a full-time quarterback, but desperation can push teams into interesting spots. And he’s making so many splash plays, the Saints can’t ignore the potential moving forward.
We’ll be talking more on Hill all week, because he’s rostered in just 29 percent of Yahoo leagues. I don’t see a bad matchup on the horizon — the Saints draw Cincinnati, Arizona, Las Vegas, and Baltimore over the next four weeks.
Before we close the book on this game, let’s appreciate the Seattle side of things. Maybe the Seahawks can surpass even the Lions as the NFL’s most reliable carnival. Detroit, after all, was shut down and shut out at New England. Meanwhile, the Seahawks moved the ball easily at New Orleans and offered little resistance to the Saints offense.
Geno Smith is having a heck of a renaissance season — he tossed for 268 yards and three more touchdowns on just 25 attempts. He was sacked three times, but didn’t have a turnover.
And when Smith looks downfield, he targets the players we like. Tyler Lockett (5-104-2) was one of the biggest steals of draft season, and DK Metcalf (5-88-1) is also returning a profit on his summer ADP.
Seattle will need rookie Kenneth Walker III to step forward, as Rashaad Penny reportedly fractured his tibia Sunday. Walker had a 69-yard touchdown run late in Sunday’s game, though his other seven carries netted just 19 yards. Given the lack of depth in this backfield — DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer (currently on IR) are specialty players at best — Walker, rostered in 44% of leagues, could be looking at an every-down workload.
Seattle’s carnival faces off against the Cardinals and Chargers in the next two weeks. Get your popcorn ready.
Speed Round
• The Jets kept Zach Wilson on a short leash and let Breece Hall steer the offense. It’s the right move, and Hall could be a special player, but the talented Jets receivers will all have trouble reaching their ceilings. The Joe Flacco volume days are long gone.
• I followed the money in the Miami backfield this summer. I should have followed the Mostert. Of course Raheem Mostert has a checkered injury history, but anyone who plays running back in the NFL is a walking injury risk. Mostert ripping off 18-113-1 on a day the Dolphins played their third-string quarterback was heady stuff. Now I have to decide if Chase Edmonds is a bench or a full drop.
• If you followed the money in Cleveland, you hit with David Njoku, who is an auto-start now. Jacoby Brissett is an eyelash below league average, but he’s not awful — and the Browns passing tree is especially narrow. They only throw to three guys.
• Brian Daboll doesn’t have many ingredients in New York but he’s getting sharp play from Daniel Jones, a quarterback the Giants didn’t even want six months ago. I’ve always liked Darius Slayton, though I backed off when the Giants seemed to sour on him. Desperation was the elixir for Slayton in London. Maybe he can sneak back into deeper-league relevance, at least as a depth play.
• Bill Belichick loves this version of the Patriots, defense-driven and ground-driven with a largely-anonymous group that makes him the star. Beating the Lions is no major scalp, but Bailey Zappe also went into overtime against Green Bay the previous week. Now that Jakobi Meyers is over his touchdown allergy, he belongs in the WR3 bucket.
• Dameon Pierce won me over last week, when the Texans refused to mothball him despite falling way behind against the Chargers. But here’s the cherry — the Texans are actually competitive, so Pierce will have some downhill games, too. Sunday against Jacksonville was one of those games.
• Somehow Marcus Mariota is a mobile quarterback who doesn’t hold much fantasy value, which is a pretty nifty trick — especially considering the respected skill talent this team has. It’s always difficult to figure out how much credit coordinators deserve — we’re not at practice — but perhaps Smith’s role in the Tennessee revival was overplayed. If so, I’m surely guilty of that miscalculation.
• I didn’t understand why the Jaguars didn’t steer into Travis Etienne the previous week at Philadelphia, but maybe Trevor Lawrence’s lost afternoon in the rain makes it a moot point. Etienne outplayed James Robinson on Sunday, and Robinson’s ballyhooed fast start was artificially propped up by some unsustainable long runs that were more defensive breakdowns than anything else. I doubt anyone in your league is pining for Robinson, but he still might be overrated.
• Najee Harris might not be 100 percent and his setup stinks — inexperienced passing game, struggling line, lessened defense. If he ever pops in the coming weeks, you take that game immediately to market. But it’s possible your league mates are suspicious of him, too. The sooner the Steelers point more towards George Pickens at the expense of the struggling Chase Claypool, the better.
• I have little expectations on P.J. Walker, but he can’t be worse than a hurt and lacking-confidence Baker Mayfield. I don’t think the Panthers have a choice. Matt Rhule's clock is ticking.
• I wanted to put Devin Singletary in the Circle of Trust, but it's so hard with Buffalo, a team that passes to set up the pass. The Bills really need to stop exposing Josh Allen to runs late in blowout games; if you lose that one guy, your Super Bowl dream evaporates.
• Austin Ekeler has marked his first-round ADP nicely the last two weeks, and at least we have clarity behind him. Joshua Kelley picked up double-digit touches and a score at Cleveland, and that was a competitive game all day. He’s had a JAG look to him for three years, but Sunday earned him some leash with the coaching staff.
• If Dallas Goedert had more stable volume, he’d be the TE2 on everyone’s board. As is, he’s no worse than TE5. What an efficiency monster. Arizona hasn’t stopped tight ends anyway, but Goedert is a matchup nightmare for the entire league.
• The 49ers power running and elite defense are good enough to win most games, with the offense being a garnish. Jimmy Garoppolo will still get some dreamy play-action opportunities, and he’s working with three outstanding receivers. But volume is rarely going to be his friend. I wonder if Jeff Wilson Jr. has earned the right to play regularly even when Elijah Mitchell returns. Wilson is perfect for the Kyle Shanahan system, getting at least what’s blocked and very decisive in his cuts and decisions.
• Just when I though Green Bay had narrowed its usage, they went wide against the Giants in London. Green Bay also went scoreless in the second half and lost to an inferior team. Aaron Jones needs proactive work in the passing game, and there’s no reason why A.J. Dillon can’t catch an occasional pass. Matt LaFleur isn’t afraid to admit or correct a mistake — I expect the Packers to iron this out.
• Most relationships aren’t built to last, but Tom Brady to Leonard Fournette might go on forever.
