The Fantasy Blueprint: NFL Week 11 Preview

Hayden Winks
·40 min read



Posted Thursday and updated Friday evening, “The Fantasy Blueprint” will get you the stats and information that actually matter for fantasy football, and it will be produced in a way that doesn’t waste our time. There's simply no reason to write 30,000 words each week. If you don't know what "Fantasy Usage" is, read this. If you want my best bets, they’ll be at the top on Saturday. If you need live Vegas odds, go here. If you simply just want my weekly rankings, subscribe here for $3.99 per month and use promo code WINKS10 for 10% off. If you have other questions, reach out on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).

Best Bets of Week 11

Visit our live odds page. My all-time record: 74-53-3 (58.1%).

1. Dolphins (-3.5) @ Broncos - A confusing, man-coverage defense vs. a banged-up Lock.

2. Ravens (-6) vs. Titans - TEN missing LT, LG, Clowney, Adoree, Humphries.

3. Cowboys vs. Vikings OVER 47.5 - Injured defenses, plus recency bias panic in Dallas.

4. Falcons vs. Saints UNDER 49.5 - Happy to bet against Hill when dropping back 20+ times.

5. Bucs (-4) vs. Rams - No LT Whitworth for pressure-sensitive Goff vs. a blitz-heavy defense.

1. Chiefs (31.75 points, -7 spread) @ LV

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Patrick Mahomes

Fantasy Rank: 3, Team PaATT: 11, Team RuATT: 19

WR2 Tyreek Hill

Season-high usage Week 9. LV 18th vs. WRs. Boom-bust WR1.

NA Sammy Watkins (Q)

Had WR2/3 usage in healthy games. Iffy status.

WR77 Mecole Hardman

Week 9 routes: Hardman (35), Demarcus Robinson (42).

TE1 Travis Kelce

7th all time in PPR thru 9 games at TE. 20 PPR P/G vs. Raiders.

RB28 Clyde Edwards-Helaire

xFPs: With Bell (12.5), without (20.3). Video. LV 30th in rush EPA.

RB58 Le'Veon Bell

4.8, 7.5, & 4.1 xFPs in three games with KC. Not startable.

In five Patrick Mahomes games against the Raiders, the Chiefs have scored 32, 40, 28, 35, and 40 points, which makes Kansas City’s 31.75-point team total seem light if anything, particularly with a half dozen Vegas defenders unable to practice this week due to COVID-19 protocols. Mahomes is my QB1 overall this week. … Tyreek Hill is coming off season-high fantasy usage and is leading the NFL in air yards per game over the last month as a boom-bust WR1. Sammy Watkins’ return puts a slight dent into Hill’s projected target share and pushes Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson further down the pecking order. Watkins was seeing WR2/3 fantasy usage in healthy games earlier in the season and claims to be fully healthy as an upside WR3 play against a below-average secondary who will slide coverage over to Hill instead. … Travis Kelce is averaging 20.0 PPR points against the Raiders since Mahomes arrived and is on pace for a historic top-10 fantasy tight end season. Kelce should continue lapping the field as a borderline top-five overall fantasy asset. … Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be at full health despite missing an early-week practice with the flu. His role as the lead back has remained safe, albeit with less total work. He’s losing pass-protection snaps to Darrell Williams in passing situations and Le’Veon Bell rotates in on early downs occasionally. The Raiders 30th ranked rushing EPA defense and the giant Chiefs’ team total make CEH an upside RB2 play even though he’s only averaged 12.5 expected PPR points in his three games with Bell.

Updated Friday: Sammy Watkins is dealing with hamstring and calf problems and is questionable after possibly having a setback in practice. His floor is obviously lower than expected, although his elite ceiling is in tact. Hopefully ESPN's Adam Schefter comes through with a midnight Saturday update. ... Chiefs RT Mitchell Schwartz (back) is out.

Fantasy Rankings

Edwards-Helaire is my RB13 this week. Subscribe to Rotoworld EDGE+ here to unlock the rest of my personal weekly positional rankings (posted Wednesday) for only $3.99 per month. Use promo code: WINKS10 for 10% off.

2. Seahawks (30.5, -3.5) vs. ARI

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Russell Wilson

Fantasy Rank: 4, Team PaATT: 12, Team RuATT: 27

WR5 Tyler Lockett

Statistically most volatile usage in NFL. Nuclear vs. ARI early. WR1.

WR19 DK Metcalf

Efficiency outlier on WR2 usage. Rebound post-Ramsey. Ceiling play.

WR79 David Moore

Week 10 routes: Moore (31 of 53), Freddie Swain (22).

TE21 Greg Olsen

35-of-53 routes Week 10. TD-needy TE3 ahead of Dissly, Hollister.

NA Carlos Hyde

Chris Carson out & Alex Collins left on practice squad. Boom-bust RB2.

A turnover-heavy November has slowed Russell Wilson down, but he’s still a locked-in top-four option weekly as long as the Seahawks stay top-five in neutral pass rate. With Chris Carson likely out and with a formidable in-division opponent on the schedule, I’m expecting that to continue. Arizona can’t rush the passer with OLB Chandler Jones on injured reserve, so Wilson should have time for deep balls to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who is expected to play through a knee injury. Obviously all have a massive ceiling despite some streaky production. In terms of matchups, Lockett gets the edge after CB Patrick Peterson covered Metcalf a few weeks back. David Moore (31-of-53 Week 10 routes) and Freddie Swaim (20) are quality DFS Showdown darts as touchdown-or-bust receivers attached to the No. 2 projected offense of the week at 30.5 points. … Seattle’s tight end room is deep with Greg Olsen (35-of-53 Week 10 routes), Will Dissly (6), and Jacob Hollister (4) sprinkling in. Olsen’s usage has teetered on TE2/3 levels as the best bet for a touchdown. … The Seahawks have three backs for Week 11 -- Carlos Hyde, DeeJay Dallas, and Bo Scarbrough with Alex Collins being left on the practice squad and Chris Carson being ruled out. Hyde is the best bet for a three-down workload after DeeJay Dallas was benched in recent weeks due to mental mistakes. Hyde’s experience makes him an upside RB2, albeit with a low floor, while Dallas has desperation DFS Showdown appeal as the likely No. 2 back over wannabe Big Dog Scarbrough.

3. Steelers (28.75, -10.5) @ JAX

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Ben Roethlisberger

Fantasy Rank: 13, Team PaATT: 9, Team RuATT: 17

WR6 JuJu Smith-Schuster

14.3 xFPs in 6 games since bye. WR2/3.

WR10 Diontae Johnson

16.1 xFPs in 4 healthy games since bye.

WR13 Chase Claypool

16.1 xFPs in 6 games since bye. Baller. WR2.

TE7 Eric Ebron

At least 7.4 xFPs in 8-of-9 games. TE1/2.

RB15 James Conner

Bad on RB1/2 usage. PIT passing more.

Already 32nd in passing EPA defense, the Jaguars will be without first-round CB C.J. Henderson as they look to stop a three-headed receiver attack and Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is now top-10 in pass attempts per game with the offenses trending upwards in neutral pass rate in November. Roethlisberger can coast to QB1 numbers with short throws and easy touchdowns as the No. 3 offense in projected points (28.75). … In the six games since the bye, the receivers’ expected PPR points in healthy games are Chase Claypool (16.1), Diontae Johnson (16.1), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (14.3). The first two have the best path to a ceiling, while Smith-Schuster has been the biggest beneficiary of the new pass-heavy approach. All three have appealing matchups as upside WR2/3 plays at the very worst. … Eric Ebron’s red zone involvement has led to at least 7.4 expected PPR points in eight of nine games. Currently the TE7 in fantasy usage in the last four weeks, Ebron is well within the top-12 tight end rankings against the No. 26 fantasy tight end defense. … Possibly because of a lack of explosion (3.6 YPC since the bye), James Conner has been relatively phased out of the offense despite playing on 88% of the snaps last week. Conner’s floor is certainly lower, but goal-line carries as a 10.5-point home favorite against the No. 28 running back defense keep him on the RB1/2 border.

4. Saints (28.0, -5) vs. ATL

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Taysom Hill

Fantasy Rank: NA, Team PaATT: 19, Team RuATT: 10

WR32 Michael Thomas

Betting against WR1 usage with more target comp. Upside WR2.

WR86 Emmanuel Sanders

Iffy usage but Jameis upgrade. ATL allows 4th most PaATT. WR5.

TE17 Jared Cook

TD-dependent TE2 in functional offense. ATL 32nd vs. TEs.

RB2 Alvin Kamara

At least 18.8 xFPs in all games. Hill is a downgrade for AK.

Taysom Hill has been taking first-team reps ahead of Jameis Winston, who is expected to be the backup in Week 11. This news dropped the Saints’ team total by a point and counting, a sign that the market is betting against consistent offensive production with Hill under center. Winston could still mix in on pure passing downs and very well could completely take over, making Hill a risky QB2 play over more stable options. The ceiling as a rushing quarterback is there for those willing to take a shot. … Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook are losers with the move at quarterback. Hill only has 18 career pass attempts and will be preoccupied with read options rather than dropping back. Thomas’ role in the slot is a tad safer than Sanders’ and Cook’s, but betting against WR1 production from the struggling star receiver is the sharp play. … Alvin Kamara likely sees fewer dump off passes and has less touchdown equity with Hill scrambling around himself. Season-low usage is fully in play for Kamara, but star players can’t be schemed out of offenses completely. Expect Kamara to trade in a few targets for carries as a mid-range RB1. Further complicating things is the Falcons’ No. 2 rushing EPA defense.

5. Ravens (27.75, -6.5) vs. TEN

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Lamar Jackson

Fantasy Rank: 10, Team PaATT: 31, Team RuATT: 2

WR67 Marquise Brown

Under 11.5 xFPs in 7-of-9 games. TEN 31st vs. WRs. Upside WR5.

WR50 Willie Snead

xFPs since bye: Snead (10.9), Brown (8.8).

TE6 Mark Andrews

No Nick Boyle (knee). Inconsistent TE1. TEN allows 2nd most PaATT.

RB31 Gus Edwards

Week 10 snaps: JK (29), Ingram (17), Gus (15).

RB42 J.K. Dobbins

Week 10 routes: JK (20), Ingram (9), Gus (6). Passing-down back.

RB61 Mark Ingram

Under 9.0 xFPs in 5-of-6 healthy games. TD-needy RB3.

Disappointingly the QB10 per game, Lamar Jackson is set for a get right game against a struggling Titans unit that’s 28th against fantasy quarterbacks and 31st in adjusted sack rate. The latter is important as Jackson has struggled without his starting left tackle and with his slumping center. Jackson’s floor is safe with his elite rushing, but there’s an increased chance of big-plays through the air against Tennessee’s No. 24 passing EPA defense. The Ravens are projected for the fifth most points (27.75) of the week. … Marquise Brown is no longer a must-play flex option, but this is a week to play into his upside. The Titans are 31st against fantasy receivers and spent the 2019 AFC Playoff game selling out against the run. Brown is an upside flex dart while Willie Snead roams underneath from the slot. Snead has actually averaged more expected PPR points per game (10.9) than Brown (8.8) since the bye. … Mark Andrews’ floor and ceiling is unlocked by Nick Boyle’s season-ending knee injury. Adding to the gas is the fact that the Titans are allowing the second most pass attempts per game and rank third in neutral pace on offense. Expect the Ravens to pass more than normal in Week 11. … Mark Ingram’s (17 Week 10 snaps) return is bad news for J.K. Dobbins (29) and Gus Edwards (15). Ingram and Edwards are currently splitting the early-down role for now while Dobbins is the clear-cut passing-down back and offers the most ceiling as a potential three-down back if fully unlocked down the stretch. Dobbins’ RB42 fantasy usage over the last month tempers any flex expectations for now despite being 6.5-point favorites.

6. Chargers (27.75, -8.5) vs. NYJ

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Justin Herbert

Fantasy Rank: 6, Team PaATT: 13, Team RuATT: 3

WR8 Keenan Allen

WR1 usage with Herbert. NYJ 31st in passing EPA. Top-5 WR1.

WR52 Mike Williams

Upside tied to LAC's fluctuating neutral pass rate. WR3.

TE10 Hunter Henry

Steady TE1 usage in fantasy TE wasteland. NYJ 21st vs. TEs.

RB4 Kalen Ballage

Awful efficiency, but 16.6 & 23.9 xFPs in last 2 games. No-floor RB2/3.

RB45 Joshua Kelley

Only 17-of-63 snaps in Week 10 aka dog house. Forgettable tape.

RB59 Troymaine Pope

No snaps in Week 10 following concussion.

If not for coach Anthony Lynn’s inexcusable run-heavy Week 10 game plan and a brutal haircut by the strength and conditioning coach, I’d have no worries for Justin Herbert’s outlook against the Jets’ No. 31 passing EPA defense. With the Chargers projected for 27.75 points (6th) and Herbert sitting as the QB6 per game, the rookie is an obvious upside QB1. … The WR8 in fantasy usage over the last month, Keenan Allen walks into an A+ matchup with quality slot corner Brian Poole out and another starting corner being cut mid-week. He’s averaging 10.5 targets since the bye as a top-five PPR WR1. Mike Williams’ 15% target share over that span is a slight concern, but his targets are high value as they often come in the red zone (0.9 per game) or down the field (34% of targets with 20+ air yards). Tied to big plays, Williams remains a highly volatile WR3/flex play. … Hunter Henry has seen consistent low-end TE1 usage as a distant second option behind Allen over the middle. Henry’s touchdown ceiling has been slowed by giant TE Donald Parham’s presence, but finding the box in Week 10 was a welcome sign. The Jets’ No. 21 tight end defense locks Henry into top-10 rankings. … With Justin Jackson on injured reserve and Austin Ekeler not returning for a couple of more weeks, the Chargers seem hell bent to make Kalen Ballage a mini-bellcow ahead of Joshua Kelley (17-of-63 Week 10 snaps) and Troymaine Pope (0). Showing nothing on tape to change our league-low expectations, Ballage must handle most running back touches to live as a dicey RB2 option. His 16.6 and 23.9 expected PPR points over the last two weeks suggest that’s slightly more likely than not. Ballage is a no-floor RB2 with Kelley remaining a troubling vulture near the goal line.

7. Vikings (27.5, -7.5) vs. DAL

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Kirk Cousins

Fantasy Rank: 24, Team PaATT: 32, Team RuATT: 9

WR61 Adam Thielen

Efficient but always at expense of MIN run game. DAL 28th vs. WRs.

WR62 Justin Jefferson

Elite efficiency but boom-bust box scores. Healthy team total (27.5).

TE25 Irv Smith (Q)

Low-end TE2 usage if healthy. Kyle Rudolph TE2/3 streamer if not.

RB3 Dalvin Cook

Elite workload. DAL allows 2nd most RuATT & 26th in rushing EPA.

Held back by a bottom-five 44% neutral pass rate and league-low pass attempts per game, Kirk Cousins needs elite efficiency to pay off as a QB2 play. The Cowboys’ No. 21 passing EPA defense gives him a good shot at doing so, although there’s risk that the Vikings’ jump out early and play ball control with Dalvin Cook, who will be taking advantage of a Dallas unit that’s allowing the second most carries per game to opponents. Cook’s RB3 fantasy usage paired with DC Mike Nolan’s No. 26 rushing EPA defense makes him the RB1 overall this week. … Giddy God Justin Jefferson is leading the NFL in the predictive yards per route run metric as an already elite Diggs replacement. While his overall fantasy usage (WR62) is a concern, his league-high 14.4 YPT always keeps him play for a massive ceiling if Minnesota is in close games. The Vikings’ 27.5-point team total (7th) gives Jefferson and Adam Thielen, who leads the NFL in red zone receiving touchdowns, a path to top-12 numbers. … Irv Smith (groin) is questionable after getting in limited practices all week. In healthy games over the last month, Smith has seen TE25 fantasy usage as a touchdown or bust streamer. Kyle Rudolph will have that same tag if Smith is unable to go. Dallas is 16th against fantasy tight ends.

Updated Friday: Vikings RGs Ezra Cleveland (ankle) and Dru Samia (COVID-19) are out.

8. Cardinals (27.0, +3.5) @ SEA

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Kyler Murray

Fantasy Rank: 1, Team PaATT: 21, Team RuATT: 4

WR22 DeAndre Hopkins

Inconsistent WR1/2 usage but a WR1 still. SEA 32nd vs. WRs.

WR26 Christian Kirk

11.5 xFPs since injury. Volatile deep threat. SEA vulnerable deep.

WR55 Larry Fitzgerald

0 games above 12.0 xFPs. Needs random TDs.

RB24 Kenyan Drake

Saw both Week 10 inside-10 touches. RB2 if ankle holds up.

RB19 Chase Edmonds

10.5 xFPs per game with Drake. PPR RB3 in good game script.

On pace for a historic fantasy season, Kyler Murray is fully locked into top-two weekly fantasy rankings, particularly with Seattle 32nd against fantasy quarterbacks. … DeAndre Hopkins’ usage has been hit or miss, but the ceiling is always there and his floor is bankable when his ankle isn’t holding him back. This week against the No. 32 defense versus receivers is an ultimate smash spot of course. Christian Kirk’s WR2/3 ceiling is always in tact. That’s especially true with Seahawks CBs Shaquille Griffin and Quinton Dunbar out. Kirk’s 12.4 average depth of target makes him slightly more boom-bust because deep targets are volatile. Larry Fitzgerald (39-of-41 Week 10 routes) continues to play the slot ahead of speedy Twitter darling Andy Isabella (9) but remains off the radar in standard 12-team leagues. … The Cardinals don’t use a tight end often, but for DFS Showdown purposes, Dan Arnold (20-of-41 Week 10 routes) is the slight favorite over Maxx Williams (10) and Darren Daniels (3). … The Cardinals use both of their backs in defined roles when healthy, Kenyan Drake being the favorite near the goal line and on early downs with Chase Edmonds handling passing-down work as a change-of-pace back. Game script favors Edmonds with Arizona checking in as 3.5-point favorites, but he’s only averaging 10.5 expected PPR points per game with a healthy Drake. Edmonds is an upside RB2/3 in PPR formats while Drake belongs as a low-end RB2 who is mostly tied to touchdowns. He handled both inside-10 touches in Week 10 and just needs Murray to stop hogging those goal-line read-options.

9. Colts (26.75, -2.5) vs. GB

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Philip Rivers

Fantasy Rank: 27, Team PaATT: 17, Team RuATT: 12

WR24 Michael Pittman

IND's best WR. 38-of-40 routes Week 10. Emerging flex option.

WR59 Zach Pascal

32-of-40 routes as slot man in 3-WR sets.

WR75 T.Y. Hilton

1 game above 10.0 PPR points. GB allows 5th fewest PaATT.

TE15 Trey Burton

Week 10 routes: Burton (19), Mo Alie-Cox (24). Doyle concussed?

RB29 Nyheim Hines

Passing down back + hot hand potential. Boom-bust PPR RB2/3.

RB33 Jonathan Taylor

Hopefully not this generation’s T-Rich. Wait-and-see bench hold.

RB39 Jordan Wilkins

Hot hand potential as boom-bust RB3. Pure runner only.

Updated Friday: Colts TE Jack Doyle (concussion) practiced in full Friday, making him likely to play Week 11. His presence knocks both Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox down a tier as the three will run routes quite evenly as we saw previously. ... Packers CB Jaire Alexander (hand) is expected to play. He'll either defend T.Y. Hilton or Michael Pittman on the perimeter, perhaps splitting time with both in a non-shadow game.

10. Patriots (25.25, -2.5) @ HOU

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Cam Newton

Fantasy Rank: 16, Team PaATT: 29, Team RuATT: 1

WR14 Jakobi Meyers

Plays like an NFL starter on WR2 usage. HOU 21st vs. WRs. WR3.

WR95 Damiere Byrd

Week 10 routes: Meyers (18 of 19), Byrd (15), N’Keal Harry (12).

RB44 Damien Harris

All 22 touches on early downs but HOU allows most RuATTs. RB2.

RB41 Rex Burkhead

Week 10 routes: Rex (9), James White (5), Harris (2).

A fringe QB1 in most healthy contests, Cam Newton enters a potential ceiling game against the league’s worst rushing EPA defense, one that’s missing run-stopping LB Benardrick McKinney. The Texans don’t have the talent to slow down a downhill attack and Newton is second in inside-the-five carries (12) despite missing time. With the Patriots projected for the 10th most points of the week (25.25), Newton is firmly inside top-10 rankings. … Underpriced DFS bargain Jakobi Meyers is providing NFL-caliber receiver chops on league-high target and air yards shares since taking over the No. 1 job. Meyers is up to WR14 fantasy usage over the last month and projects for 7-12 targets depending on game script. The Texans’ No. 21 receiver defense makes Meyers a solid WR2/3 play, while Damiere Byrd (15 of 19 Week 10 routes) and N’Keal Harry run wind sprints. … James White has been schemed out of the offense with a healthy Cam in favor of Rex Burkhead, who led the backfield in routes (9) last week. Burkhead offers RB3 appeal as the No. 2 option in the league’s most run-heavy offense. Damien Harris, however, is the better bet for 20 touches and goal-line opportunities as a better version of Sony Michel in the same role. Like always, Harris’ touches are typically low-value gut punches, leaving him vulnerable to forgettable PPR totals when kept out of the end zone. Luckily this week, Houston is allowing the most carries per game. Harris is an RB2.

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11. Raiders (25.25, +7) vs. KC

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Derek Carr

Fantasy Rank: 23, Team PaATT: 26, Team RuATT: 5

WR94 Henry Ruggs

0 games above 9.0 xFPs as field stretcher. Can grow into more. WR5.

WR96 Hunter Renfrow

Week 10 routes: Ruggs (27 of 31), Renfrow (24), Agholor (23).

WR69 Nelson Agholor

Only 1 game above 8.5 xFPs. KC 5th vs. WRs.

TE2 Darren Waller

At least 8.9 xFPs in all games. Ideal game script coming. TE2 overall.

RB12 Josh Jacobs

Carries per game: In wins (23.5), losses (13.7). KC 23rd vs. RBs tho.

Coach Jon Gruden is letting Derek Carr pick his spots, and it’s working on a per-play basis; Vegas is 6th in passing EPA and 5th in rushing EPA per play. Typically worried about the Raiders’ passing volume (26th), Carr has more upside QB2 appeal as a 7-point home dog in a dome. Albeit hung with big plays, Carr put up 347 yards and 3 touchdowns against Kansas City earlier this year. The Raiders are projected for the 11th most points (25.25) of the week. … Nelson Agholor (WR69 fantasy usage over the last month), Henry Ruggs (WR94), and Hunter Renfrow (WR96) aren’t seeing enough volume to be anything more than desperate flex options in a great game environment. Because of his theoretical upside, Ruggs is the best dart throw in hopes Gruden begins getting his first-rounder more involved down the stretch. The Chiefs’ No. 5 receiver defense further complicates things. … Darren Waller has at least 8.9 expected PPR points in all games and easily slides in as the TE2 overall behind Kelce once again. Waller’s inefficient play (5.7 YPT) has made ceiling games far and few between, but the ideal game script increases those odds. … Josh Jacobs losing passing-down snaps to Devontae Booker and others has made his win/loss splits dramatic. The 7-point spread typically would be concerning for Jacobs, but the Chiefs sell out in coverage, which has left them vulnerable to running backs (23rd) and the run game in general (27th in rushing EPA defense). 20 touches with goal line work keeps Jacobs inside top-six rankings.

12. Bucs (25.25, -3.5) vs. LAR

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Tom Brady

Fantasy Rank: 9, Team PaATT: 5, Team RuATT: 23

WR20 Mike Evans

Wk 10 routes: Evans (42 of 44), Godwin (41), AB (27). Faces Ramsey.

WR42 Chris Godwin

9.5 & 9.7 xFPs since returning despite every-down role. WR3.

WR51 Antonio Brown

7.8 & 13.9 xFPs since returning. Upside WR3/4 in easier matchup.

TE8 Rob Gronkowski

10.4 & 6.9 xFPs in 2 games with big 3 WRs. TD-needy TE1/2.

RB25 Ronald Jones

Inconsistent RB2/3 usage. LAR allows 3rd fewest RuATT. Upside RB2.

RB16 Leonard Fournette

Passing down edge, but TB 3.5-point favorites & RoJo running hotter.

Top five in pass attempts and privileged with elite line play and skill players, Tom Brady projects for QB1 numbers the rest of the way. Despite the Rams’ No. 1 passing EPA defense, Vegas projects the Bucs for the 12th most points (25.25) of the week, a total that seems too low to me. Tampa has the personnel to scheme around Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald, keeping Brady’s ceiling and floor in tact. … It’s unknown who Ramsey will primarily cover, but the best bet is Mike Evans, who is now the WR20 in fantasy usage over the last month. It lowers Evans’ floor as the Bucs could opt to pepper Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown with more looks, but Evans is too good to drop below WR3 land. Godwin (WR42 usage) and Brown (WR51 usage) are upside WR3 plays in better on-paper matchups with Godwin getting the edge in routes (41 to 27 last week). … Rob Gronkowski has seen 10.4 and 6.9 expected PPR points in the two games with AB, a sign that his production will be far more tied to touchdowns than it was a few weeks ago. The Rams are weaker at safety and linebacker than any other defensive position as evidenced by their No. 17 ranking against tight ends. Gronk is a low-end TE1. … Ronald Jones is running laps around Leonard Fournette on early downs and has earned a higher weekly fantasy ranking despite the ongoing fumble and drop concerns. Jones benefits from positive game script (3.5-point favorites), while Fournette plays on obvious passing downs and has the slight edge in fantasy usage over the last month. Both are borderline top-24 plays as the backfield continues to go back and forth. Jones has the momentum if you believe in that.

13. Panthers (25.0, -1) vs. DET

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

P.J. Walker

Fantasy Rank: 20, Team PaATT: 22, Team RuATT: 25

WR25 Robby Anderson

WR2/3 usage with Samuel’s emergence. Needs Teddy for a ceiling.

WR30 Curtis Samuel

Backfield & red zone role give him TD upside. WR3/4.

WR68 D.J. Moore

Very efficient, but under 11.0 xFPs in 7 of last 8 games. Flex.

NA Mike Davis

xFPs: Wks 3-6 (24.5), Wks 7-10 (10.6). DET 32nd vs. RBs. RB1/2.

Teddy Bridgewater seems unlikely to play, leaving either P.J. Walker or Will Grier at quarterback. Walker offers a dual-threat profile as a potential QB2 streamer if given the opportunity to play all four quarters against the No. 20 quarterback defense. … Either way, downgrading Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, and Curtis Samuel is a must. Walker is unlikely to provide stable passing production and Grier looked completely lost in his only NFL action. Between the three, Anderson profiles best as an underneath receiver with the most fantasy usage (WR25) over the last month, while Moore’s deep route tree leaves him the most vulnerable to the quarterback downgrade. Samuel’s role in the backfield should continue post-Christian McCaffrey, particularly with the Lions ranking 30th in rushing EPA defense. … Mike Davis was smashing in early starts (24.5 expected PPR points) but has dropped down to 10.6 expected PPR points from Weeks 7-10. His floor is lower than originally expected as the Carolina bellcow back, although the matchup couldn’t get easier. Detroit is dead last against fantasy backs. Another 15-20 touches would make Davis a low-end RB1.

Updated Friday: Panthers LT Russell Okung and RG John Miller are both doubtful. It's bad out here for Carolina.

14. Browns (24.5, -3.5) vs. PHI

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Baker Mayfield

Fantasy Rank: 29, Team PaATT: 30, Team RuATT: 7

WR31 Jarvis Landry

25% targets Week 10. Wind + hip slowing him.

WR90 Rashard Higgins

0 games above 10.0 xFPs despite starting, partially due to wind.

NA Austin Hooper

20-of-24 Week 10 routes tied for team lead. Rebound TE1/2.

RB13 Kareem Hunt

xFPs: With Chubb (15.6), without (14.4). PHI allows 3rd most RuATT.

RB32 Nick Chubb

Outlier on RB2 usage. Early-down role only. Both RBs are top-16.

Windy conditions and matchup played into this, but the Browns opted for a league-low 27% neutral pass rate in Week 10 with Nick Chubb and elite OG Wyatt Teller back in the lineup. Baker Mayfield already was bottom three in pass attempts before their returns and maxes out as a QB2 play even in good matchups. … Jarvis Landry has been slowed by injuries and weather, but he at least had a healthy 25% target share last week and is up to WR31 fantasy usage over the last month. He’s a WR3/flex as the alpha target over Rashard Higgins (WR90 fantasy usage) in this run-based attack. Austin Hooper has better odds than Higgins to become the second target moving forward. The well-paid tight end ran a route on 20-of-24 dropbacks last game and offers rebound low-end TE1 consideration against a defense that’s 29th versus the position. … Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have the same role as they had early in the season with Chubb handling early-down snaps and Hunt providing a more three-down skillset in neutral and negative game scripts. As 3.5-point home favorites against the No. 21 rushing EPA defense, both Chubb and Hunt can be started as borderline RB1/2 options. Expect Hunt’s efficiency to pick back up again with Teller back in the lineup.

15. Dolphins (24.25, -3.5) @ DEN

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Tua Tagovailoa

Fantasy Rank: 37, Team PaATT: 28, Team RuATT: 13

WR60 DeVante Parker

28% target share Wk 10. Tua passes the eye test. Upside WR3.

WR80 Jakeem Grant

Season-high 10.2 xFPs, 21-of-27 routes Week 10.

TE27 Mike Gesicki

3.0, 6.0, & 8.0 xFPs since bye. 18-of-27 routes Week 10. Upside TE2.

RB8 Salvon Ahmed

18.6 xFPs in Gaskin-like bellcow role Week 10. DEN 19th vs. RBs.

16. Packers (24.25, +2.5) @ IND

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Aaron Rodgers

Fantasy Rank: 7, Team PaATT: 19, Team RuATT: 13

WR1 Davante Adams

Elite usage, but IND allows 4th fewest PaATT. Still a WR1.

NA Allen Lazard (Q)

Has been nearing return. Should play as upside WR5.

WR83 Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Has hit as low-volume deep threat. Lazard lowers his projection.

TE34 Robert Tonyan

5.2 xFPs in 5 games since Adams returned. Now more competition.

RB14 Aaron Jones

xFPs: With Adams (18.3), without (24.0).

Updated Friday: Davante Adams (ankle) should be at near full health after practicing in full Friday. His ankle sprain is considered to be minor, leaving him as the WR1 overall of the week. Allen Lazard (core) is questionable, although trending in the right direction. ... Third-string RB Tyler Ervin is out, slightly elevating Aaron Jones' outlook as a high-end RB1.

17. Lions (24.0, +1) @ CAR

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Matthew Stafford (Q)

Fantasy Rank: 21, Team PaATT: 15, Team RuATT: 24

WR33 Marvin Jones

xFPs: With Golladay (7.2), without (12.5). CAR 27th in pass EPA.

WR84 Marvin Hall

2-WR set starter with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola out.

TE4 T.J. Hockenson

Season-low 22 routes Week 10 (toe). Rebound top-5 TE if healthy.

NA Adrian Peterson

Season-low 7 snaps in Week 10 but Swift is out.

Updated Friday: Matthew Stafford is expected to play through his thumb injury but will be without Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, D'Andre Swift, and with a lumbering RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. It's a risky situation for the signal caller. Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, and Adrian Peterson are the winners with the injuries.

18. Football Team (23.75, -2) vs. CIN

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Alex Smith

Fantasy Rank: NA, Team PaATT: 10, Team RuATT: 27

WR11 Terry McLaurin

At least 10.9 xFPs in all games. CIN 25th in pass EPA. WR1/2.

TE13 Logan Thomas

62-of-63 routes Week 10. TE1/2 usage. CIN 31st vs. TEs.

RB5 J.D. McKissic

28% target share in all games with QB Smith. Iffy game script. RB2/3.

RB20 Antonio Gibson

Touch share: While trailing (19%), leading (36%). RB2.

19. Falcons (23.0, +5) @ NO

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Matt Ryan

Fantasy Rank: 14, Team PaATT: 4, Team RuATT: 11

WR15 Julio Jones

16.8 xFPs per game in 5 healthy games. Faces CB Lattimore. WR1.

WR12 Calvin Ridley

Upside WR1/2 if healthy (foot sprain). Expected to play.

WR70 Russell Gage

Below-average player on bad usage with other WRs rotating.

TE5 Hayden Hurst

xFPs: With Julio & Ridley (7.4), with just one in (10.8).

RB9 Todd Gurley

At least 13.4 xFPs in all games. NO allows 4th fewest RuATT. RB2.

The Saints have heated up on defense recently with their unit getting healthier, but Matt Ryan’s top-four passing volume keeps him alive as a QB1/2 option. He’s been the QB14 per game this season and will have both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley here. Ridley was left off the injury report and faces the slightly easier individual matchup compared to Julio Jones, although CB Marshon Lattimore is questionable and has been super hot and cold in 2020. Ridley has seen WR1/2 usage with a healthy Julio, who is locked into top-five rankings as always. … Hayden Hurst is only averaging 7.4 expected PPR points per game when both receivers are healthy this year as a distant third option. The position is decimated, however, so Hurst is a quality low-end TE1 against the No. 27 tight end defense. … Todd Gurley’s floor has remained high, seeing 13.5 expected PPR points in all nine games. His red zone usage is strong and has made him the RB9 in fantasy usage over the last month. The Saints, who are 5-point favorites, are allowing the fourth fewest carries per game, however. Gurley is more of an RB2 than RB1.

20. Bengals (22.75, +2) @ WAS

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Joe Burrow

Fantasy Rank: 17, Team PaATT: 2, Team RuATT: 17

WR4 Tyler Boyd

14.5 xFPs in 6 of 9 weeks. WAS allows 2nd fewest PaATTs. WR2/3.

WR28 Tee Higgins

CIN's best WR on WR2/3 usage. Bet on rookies in the 2nd half. WR3.

WR34 A.J. Green

Wk 10 routes: AJG (35), Auden Tate (11). Could flip eventually.

TE35 Drew Sample

Deep-league TE3 option only. WAS 24th vs. TEs.

RB7 Giovani Bernard

xFPs: With Joe Mixon (7.0), without (18.8). Did Mixon reinjure?

The QB17 per game on the second most pass attempts per game, Joe Burrow gets another tough matchup in the trenches with Washington’s defense (2nd) ranking well ahead of Cincy’s offense (26th) in adjusted sack rate. Washington is also allowing the second fewest pass attempts per game in 2020, further lowering Burrow’s chances of climbing out of QB2 rankings. … Tyler Boyd (WR4 in fantasy usage over the last four weeks) and Tee Higgins (WR28) are beginning to separate from the ghost of A.J. Green, who is being threatened by Auden Tate for routes. Questionable game environment lowers Boyd and Higgins’ outlook in Week 11, but both are locked into the WR2/3 consideration. It’s worth betting on rookie receivers in the second half of the season. … Joe Mixon (foot) will miss at least one more week, leaving Giovani Bernard as a volume-based RB1/2. He’s been mostly ineffective but has averaged 18.8 expected PPR points in 2020 starts. Washington’s front seven could swallow Bernard between the tackles. He’ll need to catch passes or convert goal-line chances to pay off. Bernard ran a route on 70% of the Week 10 dropbacks.

21. Texans (22.75, +2.5) vs. NE

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Deshaun Watson

Fantasy Rank: 8, Team PaATT: 23, Team RuATT: 30

WR23 Brandin Cooks

15.6 xFPs since BOB firing. NE allows fewest PaATT. Upside WR2/3.

WR54 Will Fuller

Major efficiency outlier on volatile WR3/4 usage. Upside WR2/3.

WR53 Randall Cobb

Only 1 game above 11.0 xFPs. Off the redraft radar.

TE31 Jordan Akins

Week 10 routes: Akins (12), Darren Fells (13), Pharaoh Brown (10).

RB30 Duke Johnson

Only 9.4 xFPs Week 10 despite 54-of-57 snaps. Rebound RB2.

22. Rams (21.75, +3.5) @ TB

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Jared Goff

Fantasy Rank: 22, Team PaATT: 16, Team RuATT: 6

WR7 Cooper Kupp

Inconsistent WR2 usage. TB defense seeing 3rd high neutral pass %.

WR18 Josh Reynolds

Primary deep threat. At least 11.0 xFPs in last 4 games. Flex.

WR38 Robert Woods

Iffy ceiling but at least 9.0 xFPs in all 9 games. Floor-based WR3.

TE14 Gerald Everett

Week 10 routes: Higbee (21), Everett (18).

TE19 Tyler Higbee

Efficient & explosive, but TE2/3 workload lowers floor to 0.

RB38 Darrell Henderson

Week 10 snaps: MB (29), DH (23), Akers (18).

RB46 Malcolm Brown

Passing down back with some GL work. RB3.

RB64 Cam Akers

TB allows 2nd fewest RuATT & is 1st in rushing EPA. Wait-and-see.

23. Titans (21.25, +6.5) @ BAL

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Ryan Tannehill

Fantasy Rank: 12, Team PaATT: 27, Team RuATT: 8

WR44 A.J. Brown

Efficiency outlier on WR3/4 usage. BAL 4th vs. WRs. WR2/3.

WR36 Corey Davis

2 good, 2 bad usage games in last 4. Volatile WR4/5 in bad matchup.

TE16 Jonnu Smith

9.2 xFPs in 5 healthy games with AJB. TE1/2.

RB22 Derrick Henry

xFPs per game: In wins (20.5), losses (15.4).

Updated Friday: The Titans ruled out Adam Humphries, LG Rodger Saffold, CB Adoree Jackson, and DE Jadaveon Clowney. Ryan Tannehill is also playing with a backup left tackle and backup right tackle. It's an offensive line that went from top-five in 2019 to bottom-10 in Week 11. Luckily the Ravens will be without run-stuffing DTs Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams.

24. Broncos (21.25, +3.5) vs. MIA

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Drew Lock

Fantasy Rank: 33, Team PaATT: 7, Team RuATT: 20

WR16 Jerry Jeudy

Moving to outside WR has helped a lot. Rebound WR3.

WR37 Tim Patrick

11.5 xFPs in 6 games with Lock. WR5 with Miami DEF playing well.

WR46 KJ Hamler

Ran a route on 47-of-52 dropbacks. Slot WR6.

TE9 Noah Fant

TE1 usage with a ceiling if ankle & QB cooperate.

RB36 Melvin Gordon

10.9 xFPs in 4 games since Lindsay returned. Low total (21.25).

RB57 Phillip Lindsay

Early-down grinder & insurance only. Neither are top-20 plays.

25. Eagles (21.0, +3.5) @ CLE

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Carson Wentz

Fantasy Rank: 19, Team PaATT: 6, Team RuATT: 26

WR49 Jalen Reagor

39-of-43 routes Week 10. PHI allows 5th most PaATT. Upside WR4.

WR29 Travis Fulgham

11.8 & 8.1 xFPs in two games with Reagor. WR4 with more comp.

TE28 Dallas Goedert

36-of-43 routes Week 10. TE1 upside. CLE 23rd vs. TEs.

TE22 Richard Rodgers

Only 11-of-43 routes Week 10 as distant No. 2 tight end.

RB18 Miles Sanders

16.6 xFPs in healthy games. CLE 24th in rush EPA. Low-end RB1.

Updated Friday: DE Myles Garrett, far and away the Browns best player, is out after being placed on the COVID-19 list. LB Mack Wilson is questionable after going DNP-DNP-limited. Those are wins for Carson Wentz and Miles Sanders.

26. Cowboys (20.0, +7.5) @ MIN

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Andy Dalton

Fantasy Rank: NA, Team PaATT: 1, Team RuATT: 15

WR47 Michael Gallup

WR4/5 usage since Dak's injury. MIN 29th vs. WRs. Missing CBs.

WR58 CeeDee Lamb

xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (14.7), Weeks 7-9 (10.3). Boom-bust flex.

WR65 Amari Cooper

xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (17.9), Weeks 7-9 (8.9). Dalton should help. WR3/4.

TE11 Dalton Schultz

TE1/2 usage in very suspect offense. Low total (20.0). TE2.

RB26 Ezekiel Elliott

xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (24.2), Weeks 7-9 (12.8). Likely healthier. RB2.

Cleared from the COVID-19 list and his concussion, Andy Dalton heads back into the starting lineup for a pristine matchup against arguably the worst pass rush in the NFL. Dalton also gets a boost from RG Zack Martin’s return and the Vikings’ injuries at corner. Dalton’s 5.3 YPA makes him a risky QB2 play, but he has the surrounding talent and matchup to piece together a capable stat line in projected negative game script. The Cowboys’ 20.0-point team total seems too pessimistic and is filled with recency bias. … Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup should have more consistent and elevated production down the stretch with Dalton providing an upgrade over Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert. Cooper and Lamb continue to see the safer, low-aDOT looks over the middle of the field while Gallup runs deeper routes near the sideline, making him a boom-bust play only. All three have elite matchups against the No. 29 receiver defense. Cooper is the best bet as an upside WR3. … Ezekiel Elliott will be playing through a lingering hamstring injury and should be downgraded to RB2 levels with Dallas’ team total sitting at 26th out of 28 on the week. Elliott was losing more work than normal to change-of-pace back Tony Pollard before the bye, particularly on passing downs.

27. Jets (19.25, +8.5) @ LAC

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Joe Flacco

Fantasy Rank: 38, Team PaATT: 25, Team RuATT: 29

NA Jamison Crowder

Limited Week 10 usage in return. WR3/4 now with more competition.

WR57 Denzel Mims

Week 9 routes: Mims (28 of 28), Perriman (28), Crowder (20). WR5.

WR73 Breshad Perriman

Big-play threat with QB willing to throw downfield. WR5.

RB48 Lamical Perine

Bigger role expected post-bye over Frank Gore. RB3/4 for now.

28. Jaguars (18.25, +10.5) vs. PIT

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Fantasy Usage (Link)

Context

Jake Luton

Fantasy Rank: 25, Team PaATT: 8, Team RuATT: 31

WR39 D.J. Chark

Inconsistent usage and production. WR3.

TE20 Tyler Eifert

Past his prime TE with backup QB. PIT 1st vs. TEs.

RB6 James Robinson

RB1 usage/production. RB Thompson to IR?

Updated Friday: Laviska Shenault and backup TE James O'Shaughnessy are out, further narrowing the touch tree towards D.J. Chark and James Robinson.

Charts of the Week

Week11
Week11

For DFS this week, we lose the Chiefs to SNF and the Cardinals and Seahawks to TNF. That leaves the Steelers and Chargers in a slight tier of their own with the Colts, Vikings, Ravens, and Saints not far behind. It’s worth noting that the Rams, Titans, Eagles, and Broncos are all projected for fewer than 22 points this week.

Week11PaATT
Week11PaATT

This chart compares each offense’s pass attempts per game to their opponent’s defense’s pass attempts allowed per game. The teams on the right are projected to pass more than normal because of matchup, while the teams on the left are projected to pass less. It’s notable to see the Ravens significantly higher than their averages, a suggestion that Marquise Brown and/or Mark Andrews could finally cash in. On the flip side, I’d knock the Bengals down a bit this week with volume potentially being a slight problem.

Week11Passing
Week11Passing

There’s a very healthy second tier of passing offenses this week all grouped together in the fringe “Eruption Spot” quadrant, but the Steelers and Chiefs are the two teams that stick out above the rest when it comes to passing efficiency this week. Picking which receiver or tight end that goes off on these teams is the real challenge.

Week11RuATT
Week11RuATT

The Panthers and Texans are projected to have more rush attempts than normal this week due to their opponent’s defense’s rush attempts allowed per game. That’s great news for dual-threat backs Mike Davis and Duke Johnson, both of whom have struggled in fill-in roles. They are rebound candidates on the RB1/2 border. This chart also shows how some of the top rushing teams (LAR, NO, TEN, ARI, ATL, IND, BAL, LV) are in below-average spots this week.

Week11Rushing
Week11Rushing

The Patriots’ rushing offense is in an “Eruption Spot” this week against Houston. New England is the most efficient rushing offense, and Houston is dead last on defense. Both Cam Newton and Damien Harris deserve to be upgraded this week. I’m a fan of Newton in DFS tournaments given his rushing touchdown upside.

Week11Neutral
Week11Neutral

The Bengals remain on pace to finish top-three in raw pass attempts, and it’s not just because they’re trailing a lot. They are first in neutral pass rate, too. For all of the pass-catchers to pay off in season-long, the Bucs need to remain top-six in neutral pass rate. Last week with Nick Chubb and elite OG Wyatt Teller back, the Browns had a league-low 27% neutral pass rate. That offense should continue to be extremely run-heavy.

Week11Defense
Week11Defense

The Steelers have been parked in the “Strong Defense” quadrant literally every week and are the clear-cut No. 1 defense of Week 11. Washington, New Orleans, Los Angeles (the B team), Cleveland, and Miami are in the next tier. I’d sit the Chiefs, Colts, and Packers in favor of a streamer this week in season-long formats.

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks.