Fantasy Baseball: Should you trust any of these stars returning from injury?
The 2022 fantasy baseball draft season is arguably more impacted by injuries than any in recent memory. The early rounds are full of players who finished the 2021 season either on the IL or nursing a concerning ailment.
I have identified the “Big 5," which includes five true superstars who are all being selected in the initial three rounds despite massive injury issues.
Here is the lowdown on each of these five stars and an explanation of how they are starting Spring Training.
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. is so good that many early drafters selected him first overall despite the knowledge that the shortstop served two 2021 IL stints for a left shoulder injury that has yet to be repaired. And we will never know if his shoulder problems would have cropped up early in 2022, as the young star is already set to miss roughly half of the season with a wrist fracture.
I have read many opinions on the fantasy value of Tatis since his injury was initially reported, and I can sum up my advice in just three words: Don’t draft him.
[Batter up: Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today]
I am well aware of the soon-to-be 21-year-old’s incredible skill set, but his uncertain timetable has created an incredibly low floor that could involve Tatis missing more than half of the season or having mere-mortal plate skills when he initially returns. Additionally, there were already questions about how often the Padres would let their star player with a bum shoulder steal bases, and now the team must also weigh the odds of another injury to his wrist.
Make this situation someone else’s problem and revisit Tatis in 2023.
Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets
If I knew that Jacob deGrom would make 30 starts in 2022, I would tell you to draft him first overall.
After all, the right-hander is on another level from any other starter in baseball, having posted a 1.94 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 rate across the past four seasons. But the Mets ace missed the entire second half of 2021 with a forearm injury and there were conflicting reports that he has UCL damage. deGrom has thus far been a second- or third-round pick in most 2022 leagues, but there are signs that he should start moving up draft boards.
The 33-year-old has met all expectations so far in Spring Training, and he is so confident in his health that he has already proclaimed that he will pass up $68 million over the 2023-24 seasons to test free agency next winter.
I’m ready to grab deGrom in Rd. 2.
Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout is starting to remind me of Clayton Kershaw, a generational talent who has been limited by injuries in his late 20s and early 30s. The latest problem was a right calf strain that lingered to the point he played his final 2021 game on May 17. Trout claims that his calf has been fully healed since October, and he is working without restrictions in Spring Training. We can say with some certainty that Trout will no longer be a prolific base stealer, as the former speedster has swiped just three bases across 89 games since the outset of 2020. But even without the steals, the 30-year-old is capable of playing at a first-round level that could include 40 homers, 200 R+RBI and a .300 average. Trout would need to fall past his current Yahoo! ADP for me to pounce, but I like him as an option in the second half of Rd. 2.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves
There was plenty of enthusiasm in fantasy circles for Ronald Acuna Jr. near the beginning of March, as many stir-crazy managers developed the theory that he might be ready for a delayed Opening Day. But the end of the lockout and start of Spring Training threw cold water on those dreams. The reality is that Acuna is aiming to return by April 21 as the team’s DH, with hopes of playing in the outfield by late May. And of course, news of Acuna’s timeline also reminded managers that the speedster is unlikely to steal bases in bunches when he initially returns.
The 24-year-old is currently being drafted in Rd. 1 of Yahoo! leagues but should not be a target until a draft reaches the latter part of Rd. 2.
Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
The final member of the “Big 5” has the shortest resume. Shane Bieber had an average rookie season in 2018 before emerging as a good starter during his sophomore season and then winning a Cy Young award on the strength of 12 dazzling starts in the shortened 2020 campaign. Bieber took a step backward last year, posting good-but-not-great ratios (3.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and missing half of the campaign with a shoulder injury.
[Try Yahoo Fantasy Plus for free to get premium baseball draft tools and more]
Even more concerning, his fastball velocity trended downward last year after it ticked up during his dominant 2020 campaign. Bieber said in early March that his shoulder has been at full strength for several months, and he is currently being selected as the SP8 in Yahoo! leagues. However, I will need to see some Spring Training radar gun readings before moving him into my top-10 starters.
