Fantasy Baseball: One analyst's most surprising projections for 2022

Those who listen to my work on podcasts know that I’m one of the few writers in the fantasy baseball industry who creates and maintains his own projections during draft season. Most managers use rankings that are available at sites such as this one, which is a fine plan. But I go the extra mile, starting a process in early December where I project stats for the coming season for nearly 600 players, and I make daily tweaks to those projections all the way up to Opening Day, based on injuries, transactions and much more.

Projecting player stats is just one part of the battle. Sure, I have stats attached to players, but the final step in the process is determining how those stats convert to fantasy value. To arrive at those conclusions, I have been using SGP formulas for about 15 years.

Those who want to learn more about using SGPs can pick up a copy of “The Process” by Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell.

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Using SGPs is an eye-opening experience, where players sometimes end up with final values that even surprise me. In this article, I’m going to explain a few buckets of surprising players for the 2022 campaign.

The power-speed blends

Players who help in all (or nearly all) roto categories tend to be ranked higher than I expect. For example, a player who sits between 15-20 in both homers and steals delivers plenty of fantasy production without gathering much attention for his skills in any single area.

Here are some power-speed blends that came out surprisingly high in my 2022 projections.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR)

Hernandez is an obvious fantasy stud because of his ability to surpass the 30-homer plateau from the cleanup spot in Toronto’s high-scoring lineup, but his ability to also produce 10-15 steals is the icing on the cake that makes Hernandez a top-20 hitter.

J.T. Realmuto (C, PHI)

Realmuto is helpful in every area, and his 10+ steals from the catcher position make him a game-changer.

Robbie Grossman (OF, DET)

Grossman is a favorite of mine, as he was one of baseball’s few 20-20 players last year and could repeat that feat this season. Grossman is the perfect example of someone who is a difference-maker despite not being special in any area.

Andrew Benintendi (OF, KC)

Benintendi may not ever reach the heights that were once predicted for him, but he is capable of tallying 20 homers and 10 steals, which makes him more valuable than many drafters realize.

Harrison Bader (OF, STL)

Bader is a poor man’s version of Grossman, capable of hitting 15-20 homers and swiping 10-15 bags. Often a late-round pick, Bader will be valuable this year.

Andres Gimenez (2B/SS, CLE)

Gimenez is someone who I wish was lower on my list, but I can’t find a way to move him down. Although not yet a good real-life offensive player, Gimenez could produce a dozen homers and 25 steals this year.

The Letdowns

The following players are good Major Leaguers but leave my projection system wanting for more. They have holes in their games in relation to the five standard roto categories and aren’t special in any area. For those reasons, they finish lower in my projections than one would expect.

Eloy Jimenez (OF, CWS)

Jimenez has poor speed skills, which is a problem. He doesn’t steal bases and scores runs at a poor rate, which means that he will need to hit .290 or better in order to be a notable fantasy asset.

Carlos Correa (SS, MIN)

Correa doesn’t steal bases, has a modest career-best of 26 homers and has hit over .280 just once in his seven-year career. There just isn’t enough category juice here.

Alex Bregman (3B, HOU)

Bregman has had power concerns since the baseball was changed after the 2019 season. He also rarely steals and has hit .261 since the outset of 2020. Bregman could bounce back this year, but the projections don’t love him.

Yoan Moncada (3B, CWS)

Moncada has one season with more than 17 homers, one season with an average of over .263 and he has tallied 28 steals in 539 career games. After creating Moncada’s projections, I can’t see why managers draft him in the middle rounds.

The WHIP factor

On the pitching side, the value of hurlers is more heavily influenced by the WHIP category than most managers realize. Here are a few pitchers who have extreme production in that area.

John Means (SP, BAL)

Means is the poster boy for this section, as his career 1.08 WHIP in 348.2 innings is a remarkable number for someone who can be selected in the second half of a draft. The change of the fences at Camden Yards makes Means even more enticing.

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Logan Gilbert (SP, SEA)

Gilbert is part of the next generation of starters who give up plenty of fly balls but find success anyway due to their excellent strikeout and control skills. I could see Gilbert making a major leap this year.

Giovanny Gallegos (RP, STL)

Gallegos should be one of the top-20 pitchers this season in terms of having a positive influence on the WHIP category (career 0.92 mark), no matter how he is deployed in the Cardinals' unsettled bullpen.

Chad Green (RP, NYY)

Green is a poor man’s version of Gallegos, due to having less chance of securing saves. But Green (career 1.01 WHIP) should be one of the top-30 pitchers in terms of WHIP influence this year.

Luis Castillo (SP, CIN)

Castillo has long been overrated by fantasy managers who don’t properly value the WHIP category. The right-hander has a mediocre career 1.22 mark and was a big problem in this area (1.36) last season.

Ian Anderson (SP, ATL)

Anderson looks better in the ERA category (career 3.25 mark) than he does in WHIP (career 1.20 mark). The right-hander starts to look even more like a mid-round pick once I factor in that he has had good fortune (.262 BABIP) in his 30 career starts.