Yahoo Fantasy analysts Scott Pianowski, Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don decide which players they may try to avoid in drafts ahead of the 2023 fantasy baseball season.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI: When it comes to fantasy baseball strategy, it isn't always who to draft but sometimes who not to draft. And today, we're going to give you three big name players that have us nervous at their current ADP. Dalton, you see a Cy Young Award winner headed for a fall this year?
DALTON DEL DON: I'm a bit contrarian here, but I am fading Sandy Alcantara. Yes, he won the Cy Young last year. He relied heavily on volume. He pitched 20 more innings than any other pitcher, still didn't win 15 games.
That's sure to remain a problem. Alcantara won just nine games the season before. Wins are a fantasy category.
But even more so, I just don't love his peripherals, which included barely eight Ks per nine last season. There are many ways to get hitters out, but pitchers who rely less on strikeouts are just inherently more prone to ERA variation every year. And few if any pitchers in baseball benefited more from the shift.
Alcantara is a workhorse. Obviously, he's very, very good. But his ADP is simply far too high coming off a career-best season and given his situation. I mean, a Miami pitcher with a K rate that didn't rank top 25 last year is being drafted as a top five fantasy pitcher. No thanks here.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI: You know, we always want the K per nine starters, but even more so this year, with the new rules and with the pitching to contact being a little bit more threatening with the shift going away, I think there's a lot of reasonable reasons to fade Alcantara. I'll sign off there.
And I will fade another guy. Paul Goldschmidt maybe punched a ticket to the Hall of Fame. He wins the 2022 National League MVP. But Statcast doesn't really like his season.
He was the beneficiary of 56 batting average points he didn't earn, according to his Statcast profile. His slugging percentage was almost 100 points higher than it should have been, according to his hard hit rate. And now he's into an age 35 season.
In some leagues, he might percolate to the second round. He just doesn't seem to get past the early third round in the leagues I've observed. You're set up to take a loss I'm Paul Goldschmidt, one of my favorite players.
Again, I think he's going to Cooperstown in about 10 years or so. But he's not going on my roster in 2023. And, Andy, just so we can get our Cardinals smear campaign complete, there's another St. Louis hitter that has you little bit nervous.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, listen, I wasn't bold enough to take a future Hall of Famer or an award winner or anything like that. I don't have that kind of courage. But I do just want to say that I've got a few drafts in the books right now, and I have not taken Tommy Edman anywhere. And I haven't really been tempted by him, either.
You got to take him in the 80s, right? Like, he has a top 100 ADP easily. He'll probably give you run scoring, although he's not necessarily locked in atop the Cardinals lineup. He'll probably give you 30-plus steals, and that's great.
But, again, you got to take him in the 80s. And we're talking about a guy who can really only contribute in two categories. He's not gonna hit for average. He's not gonna hit for significant power. He's not gonna drive in runs.
And steals, like, his core category, they're not necessarily gonna be a rare commodity this year. You can find Edman types, two-category contributors, much later in your draft. That's not the profile of somebody that I want to take in the top 100.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI: I always care about where a player slots in his lineup. But when it comes to players who give me steals, I think those players might be the most lineup-sensitive.
So as you said, Edman doesn't have a great profile as a leadoff man. He kept that job last year. I don't think he keeps it this year. He's on my fade list.
You know who's not on my fade list? You, Yahoo player. You're gonna win a championship here at Yahoo Fantasy Baseball. Get your buddies together. Set up a league. Draft your team today.
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