Fade these star forwards in fantasy basketball drafts

Yahoo's Dan Titus explains why Philadelphia 76ers’ Tobias Harris and New York Knicks’ Julius Randle could be overvalued in fantasy basketball drafts.

Video Transcript


DAN TITUS: What's good? Dan Titus here with Yahoo Fantasy Sports and I'm going to talk about two players that I'm fading heading into fantasy basketball drafts this season. Starting it off, I got Tobias Harris, forward for the Philadelphia 76ers. Now despite finishing 60th in per game value last season, much of that was boosted by his performance prior to the James Harden trade. Once James Harden entered the picture his numbers dropped off considerably to 14.7 points, 5.8 boards, three assists.

Now his shooting splits were still strong, but those numbers put him in ninth round value after the All-Star break. And for some reason, his ADP this season sits at 66, right around his full season production from last year, and I can't buy it. This guy's become the fourth option in the Sixers offense and has likely been relegated to a spot-up shooting role. At ADP66 in the sixth round of 12 team leagues this is an easy fade for me.

The second player that I'm going to be fading heading into fantasy drafts this year is Julius Randle. Did you know that Julius Randle ranks eighth all time in assists per game from the power forward position? Pretty interesting, right? Now while that might be great for Julius, the Knicks decision to sign point guard Jalen Brunson this offseason has essentially put an end to point Julius.

Now, hold up. Before the Julius Randle truthers come for me, I did notice his 13 to two assist-to-turnover ratios thus far in the preseason, but let's be honest. Is this going to be sustainable for a whole season? I think not. Julius Randle has finished top 10 in turnovers per game over each of the last two seasons and Randle's value really hinges upon him getting rebounds, points, and assists. But even when he does that, he still has low shooting percentages and has a turnover problem.

So last year it's not surprising he finished 126th on a per game basis last year. And Brunson's arrival, while that may help his efficiency, I'm not expecting the assists or the points that he had prior to him being there. I see nothing to justify his current ADP at 69. That's sixth round value in 12 team formats. I got to fade that at that spot. If he falls, cool, but this is not the Julius Randle of 2019-2020.