Fantasy Baseball: Fade or follow these polarizing hitters?
Fantasy baseball is a game of opinions, and differing opinions at that. And with some specific players, the debates are going to be passionate and divisive.
Let’s examine some of the more polarizing hitters today; we’ll catch up to the pitchers later. There are no easy answers with this crew, but the challenge is part of the fun. And heck, you can be wrong on a slew of things at the draft table and still have a profitable year.
You just need to be a little sharper than your opponents.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS/3B, Royals — Yahoo ADP 70
This article could be renamed the Adalberto Mondesi Exercise because we discuss him just about every year. The Mondesi backers point to his elite speed, his sneaky home-run count, and the fact that his .249 career average isn’t a kill shot in today’s game. The detractors point to Mondesi’s extensive injury history and putrid .283 career OBP and figure he’ll be out of the lineup one way or another, eventually — be it because of injury or poor performance.
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The NFBC throws up its collective hands on Mondesi. He’s been selected as high as 16th overall, as low as 130th overall.
Verdict
Mondesi can lead the majors in steals if he plays even 70 percent of a season, and his average and power columns will probably be fine, even if his OBP stinks. He’s also a plus defender. I like Mondesi as a Play to Win pick, especially in mixed leagues, where the replacement value is especially high.
Byron Buxton, OF, Twins — Yahoo ADP 65.8
In some ways, Buxton is the rich man’s Mondesi — his reputation is more solidified around baseball. A healthy Buxton can contend for an MVP award — consider what he did in 61 games last year (.305/.358/.647, 19 homers, nine steals). He’s merely entering his age-28 season, and he was the No. 1 or No. 2 prospect in baseball as recently as 2016.
Verdict
I’d argue Buxton has more injury risk than Mondesi — Mondesi did play a full season in the truncated 2020 campaign — but he’s also a much better real-life player. Either one of these guys is a fun upside dart throw, but I’d be reluctant to roster both of them together. If you constantly live with your hair on fire, eventually the rest of your body goes up in flames. But you can’t play scared, either.
Salvador Perez, C, Royals — Yahoo ADP 35.2
Although Perez was a reliable backstop all through his 20s, his age-31 season smashed all previous norms — he led all of MLB with 48 homers and 121 RBIs. His previous high for home runs was 27, his previous RBI best was 80. Perez never met a pitch he didn’t want to hack at — he walked just 28 times (four intentionally), and his OBP was a modest .316.
Verdict
Perhaps Perez showed signs of this breakout two years back, as he ripped a .333/.353/.633 slash over 37 games in 2020. But his power stats don’t line up with anything he did before his 2019 elbow injury, and now that Yahoo drafters view him as a third or fourth-round pick, I’ll sit this out. When’s the last time you invested in a high-priced catcher and felt good about it at the season’s end?
Marcus Semien, 2B/SS, Rangers — Yahoo ADP 32.9
Some fantasy managers are hesitant to chase Semien after his monstrous 2021 (45 homers, 115 runs, 102 RBIs, 15 steals). He did not have a strong year during the abbreviated 2020 season (.223/.305/.374).
Verdict
While the Regression Police is going to power-fade Semien, I’ll take comfort in what he did in his final full season with Oakland (a monster .285-123-33-92-10 showing in 2019). He can lose a fair amount of last year’s production and still return value, given his ADP is a reasonable ticket in the 30s. He’s already on a few of my rosters.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets — Yahoo ADP 40.6
Lindor came out of the box pressing in New York, perhaps trying too hard to justify his new contract. He didn’t pass the Mendoza Line until early June. His final 78 games were more in line with what we expected: .253/.342/.480, 50 runs, 16 homers, 51 RBIs, six steals. His NFBC ADP is 10 slots cheaper than Yahoo, with a fairly wide range (21 high, 75 low).
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Verdict
Lindor’s entering the phase of his career where the steals can’t be counted on, and he hasn’t been a batting-average boost since 2019. It’s not that I have a passionate case against Lindor’s 2022 fantasy value, but the shortstop position is overflowing with so many interesting options, I’m not going to talk myself into a pick here, either. I’ll probably be underweight on Lindor when my final portfolio is complete.
Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers — Yahoo ADP 75.6
Cody Bellinger, OF, Dodgers — Yahoo ADP 87.6
These two former MVPs are commonly linked and will likely be drafted closely together in your league. Bellinger was Rookie of the Year in 2017, Yelich won MVP in 2018, and then Bellinger grabbed the 2019 MVP — with Yelich second. These guys were first-round fantasy royalty not long ago.
Since then, it’s been a variety of mishaps. Yelich has dealt with back problems and a ground-ball bias; last year he slugged an anemic .373. Bellinger’s also faced physical problems, though mechanical issues were the main reason he slashed .195/.278/.364 the last two years. He’s expected to start the year in the bottom third of a loaded Dodgers lineup.
Verdict
I’m more likely to consider Bellinger at current draft cost, as he’s four years younger and he did show signs of life in last year’s playoffs. But both of these players are reactive picks for me, not proactive picks, and if the room wants eagerly, I have no problem sitting out.
