Fade deGrom at current ADP in fantasy drafts?

D.J. Short and Scott Pianowski discuss expectations for Texas Rangers' SP Jacob deGrom and whether or not fantasy managers should fade the hurler in drafts at his current ADP.

Video Transcript

D.J. SHORT: --for me is Jacob deGrom, another player switching teams during the off-season. His average draft position since March-- sorry, I have a live draft going on, it just went off. See I have a problem, like I said.

So my average draft position, or the average draft position for deGrom is 35.15, sixth among starting pitchers, right in the same range as Spencer Strider, Sandy Alcantara, just ahead of Aaron Nola, Brandon Woodruff, Shane McClanahan, guys like that. So this doesn't require much in the way of explanation why I'm fading Jacob deGrom. Yeah, apparently over the side issue he had earlier on in Rangers camp. He threw in a minor league game on Monday and all was well. 24 pitches, no issues. All signs are he'll be ready for the season.

But how much can you reasonably expect from Jacob deGrom? He could very well throw 150 elite innings but, to me, he's just as likely to throw 50 innings spread over the course of six months while causing constant anxiety to his fantasy manager. And to me, like I said, I've been in so many drafts, mock drafts, regular drafts, when I'm in that spot and I'm like, man, Alcantara, Nola, Woodruff, I'm like, I don't have to have those headaches with those other guys. Yes, pitching is inherently a risky athletic act. It just is. Like, pitchers get hurt. But deGrom, we know he's been hurt. We know he throws harder than any human should. The risk is just inherent there.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Totally agree. When we were exchanging our lists offline, I actually didn't realize that you would listed deGrom. DeGrom was initially on my list. So I'm just going to co-sign pretty much everything you said. When you draft deGrom, you're signing up for six months of anxiety. I used to make the joke, and I say this tongue-in-cheek because I want everybody to be healthy.

D.J. SHORT: Yeah, of course.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Nobody takes joy in an injury. But we used to joke about Stephen Strasburg being Stressburg because every time he'd flinch, we'd be oh no. Did he blow out a shoulder? Did he blow out his elbow? Is something wrong with his forearm? And deGrom's like that. And just because every pitcher has risk does not mean the risk is even. And deGrom after the last two seasons, I thought, if we were talking, if we were doing a podcast in November and anticipating ADPs, I'd be like yeah, I'm curious to see how the market handles deGrom. What would he be? Like, a fifth round pick? A sixth round pick? I'm shocked his ADP is where it is, where people are drafting him like there's really nothing major to worry about.

D.J. SHORT: Yeah.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Man, don't do it to yourself. Don't stress yourself out. Now it's a much more difficult call with my last pick because a lot of the deGrom issues are going to come into play with Tyler Glasnow, who goes several rounds later. Just remember, one season past 90 innings. I think he's never gotten to 120 innings in his career and he's still a top 100 pick?

There's a time when your draft should shift all to upside, when you play with your hair on fire. I'm playing for first place. I don't care if I come in last. I get it. You want to be a daredevil. But Glasnow goes a few rounds before I'm ready to flip that switch to I'm just going to play with my hair on fire. The fact that he's never had a fully healthy season. At least deGrom, he's won Cy Young Awards Tyler Glasnow's never really been eligible for anything because he never gets through the full season. He's a really big guy. What is he like, 6'8"? There's a lot of moving parts there. I'm really surprised that people are as aggressive on Glasnow as they have been. He's going two or three rounds before I'm ready to even consider him.