We've already examined all the factors that are going to go into the Eagles' decision about Nick Foles (see story), but now it's time to figure out where he's going to land.
While oddsmakers left the Eagles on the board, it seems pretty clear that Foles is going to move on to another team one way or another this offseason. I still think the most likely way he leaves is as a free agent, but there could also be a trade if the Eagles can work one out and Foles is agreeable.
Anyway, let's try to figure out where Foles will land with the help of some odds.
Odds on Nick Foles' next team, per Bet DSI:
NY Giants +1000
Tampa Bay +2000
— Nick Veronica (@NickVeronica) January 15, 2019
OK, let's go team by team:
It seems like the Dolphins are ready to move on from Ryan Tannehill as their starting quarterback after six seasons and a 42-46 record. Cutting Tannehill would leave a ton of dead money ($13 million) but would also save $13 million in cap room. If the Dolphins really want to move on, the dead money will be worth it.
Keeping with the theme of 13, that's where the Dolphins pick this year. Now, just a few years ago, the Eagles were able to move from 13 to 8 to 2 to draft Carson Wentz, but unless the Dolphins are willing to do that, they're kind of in no man's land in the middle of the first round wanting a QB in a QB-deficient draft. So maybe they need to go the free agency route.
Adam Gase is gone and the presumed new head coach will be the Patriots' Brian Flores. He'll likely be hired whenever the Patriots' season is over, either this weekend or in a couple weeks. Maybe he'll sign the guy he watched outduel Tom Brady in Super Bowl LII.
Last offseason, they picked up Alex Smith, but his injury is really significant, so it's time to find somebody new. It would make more sense for them to try to get a young quarterback to build around, but they have the 15th pick.
And Dan Snyder can probably talk himself into thinking they're a QB away. Remember when the Redskins got off to their 6-3 start in 2018. Well, then they had crazy injuries, so he might look at his team and think it's a lot closer than it actually is.
These odds actually came out before we learned Jacksonville was about to hire John DeFilippo as its offensive coordinator, so you can argue it should be even higher on the list now. Flip coached Foles for just one year in Philly, but that year ended with a parade on Broad Street.
The Jags had a disastrous 5-11 season in 2018, but that came after they were 10-6 the year before. So if they think there's still enough talent in that locker room to be a playoff team, they might just be one QB away. While Foles threw some interceptions this year, he ain't Blake Bortles in that respect. He could give the Jags the chance to win close, defensive games as long as he doesn't make mistakes.
They do have the seventh pick, though, so maybe the Jaguars ought to think about drafting a QB.
Case Keenum is still under contract in Denver, but it shouldn't let that change anything it does at the quarterback position. In fact, John Elway told Peter King that Keenum was more of a short-term fix. That doesn't sound good for Keenum.
Foles is still just 29, so it's not like he couldn't be a longer-term fix. And picking at 10th in the draft doesn't guarantee the Broncos will be able to draft the next QB either. Foles might be as good an option as any.
Howie Roseman said on Tuesday that the Eagles would like to keep Foles, but how realistic is that? They've committed to Carson Wentz being the quarterback, so can they afford to have an insurance policy of over $20 million? The problem here is that's money they could use elsewhere to build a team around Wentz. And is it fair to the franchise quarterback to always be looking over his shoulder? Even Wentz admitted there's an added level of pressure after all of Foles' success.
The flip side of this is that Wentz hasn't stayed healthy. He's been injured in both of the last two seasons and Foles has stepped in for the playoffs. We'd have to just trust that Wentz is going to stay healthy next season. As insurance policies go, Foles is the best one.
New York Giants
Eventually, the Giants have to move on from Eli Manning, right? They really should move on from the 38-year-old quarterback now and I think Foles would make a lot of sense.
The Giants clearly have some offensive weapons and could use a steadying force like Foles, who has played for head coach Pat Shurmur before.
The big fear about Foles is that he'll only work in Philadelphia. Well, why not go to a landing spot with an offense that at least has some similarities? Remember, Shurmur was in Philly for Foles' Pro Bowl 2013 season under Chip Kelly and comes from the Andy Reid tree, which means his offense has similarities to Doug Pederson's in some ways too. From a purely football standpoint, I like the Giants as a landing spot. But there are some emotional hurdles to get over.
Head coach Jon Gruden and GM Mike Mayock seem to love Foles and they might be ready to move on from Derek Carr in Oakland or wherever the heck they're going to play this season. Mayock and Gruden both have ties to Philly and are both very familiar with Foles.
The Raiders also have three first-round picks, so if the Eagles end up trying to trade Foles instead of letting him walk, the Raiders have the firepower to get a deal done - if that's the way they want to go.
It doesn't mean much, but Foles' seven-touchdown game came against the Raiders in 2013.
Apparently, Cam Newton might be in danger of missing the 2019 season because of a shoulder injury. So if the Panthers think he's not around in the 2019 season, they'll need someone to play quarterback. Enter Foles?
The problem here is that Foles wants to go to a good situation and I'm not sure this is it. Newton has one more year left on his contract after 2019, which means Foles would have to play well enough to make the Panthers change their organizational direction and go with him instead. Don't know why he'd choose that as a free agent.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs hired Bruce Arians as their head coach, but it seems like they're sticking with Jameis Winston at QB. If there's a change, maybe it would make sense for Foles. But if there isn't, not sure why they're on the list.
A bonus one from me: Cincinnati Bengals
I'm not convinced the Bengals are going to stick with Andy Dalton, which would make Foles an attractive option, especially for new head coach Zac Taylor, who is the brother of Eagles QBs coach Press Taylor. The Bengals still have A.J. Green and Joe Mixon, so it might not be that bad of a landing spot for Foles.
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