Expert Predictions: Who claims the state title in the Gasparilla Bowl?

It is not the game the Gator Nation had in mind when the 2021 campaign began, but on Thursday, Florida football will face the Central Florida Knights in the… (checks notes) Gasparilla Bowl, held in Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. Most Floridians think of the pirate festival when they hear the name Gasparilla, but there is very little festivity about this game.

Nonetheless, the matchup will serve as a de facto state championship, as these two schools bring in the top records among their collegiate peers. You know it was a bad year in Florida when the 8-4 and 6-6 teams were the best of the bunch, but here we are with a preview of the upcoming two-and-one matchup between the Gators and Knights over the next decade-plus.

Ahead of the game, the Gators Wire staff offers up their takes and predictions for the second-biggest bowl game in the Tampa Bay area. Take a look below at our thoughts and final scores, as well as the overall composite assessment.

Adam Dubbin - Managing Editor

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

This is a tough game to call because of all the turmoil and turnover Florida’s team has experienced on the sidelines. But at the same time, UCF’s season was also seen as a bit of a disappointment, though their 8-4 record certainly looks better than the Gators’ 6-6. Any other season I would argue that the SEC schedule is much more grueling than the AAC’s — which is true — but we saw UF falter against the bottom dwellers of the conference, so that argument goes right out the window.

What is at stake here boils down to pride. A win for the Gators gives them the de facto state title among its collegiate peers while a victory for the Knights would be major bragging rights for the state’s flagship university’s little brother. Through that lens, this matchup appears to favor Central Florida — especially also considering that Raymond James Stadium is almost assured to be packed with plenty of black and gold.

Florida will be without NFL prospect Zachary Carter, and presumably, the team’s leading tackler Mohamoud Diabate and leading receiver Jacob Copeland, who entered the transfer portal. Even at its peak, this roster left a lot to be desired, but it still has more overall talent heading into the game than UCF on paper — barely.

All that said, I think the Gators will eke out a win on Thursday, but it won’t be pretty and there will be plenty of white-knuckle moments. I don’t see a ton of offensive output either, especially given that Emory Jones cannot be trusted to put the ball in the air, so expect to see a lot of the ground game.

Florida 24, UCF 21

Tyler Nettuno - Assistant Editor/Writer

Syndication: Gainesville Sun

This one is admittedly tough. In terms of motivation, UCF is going to have a clear advantage. Year 1 of the Gus Malzahn era has been a bit disappointing, but 8-4 is still nothing to scoff at, and capping it off with a win over the flagship in-state program would send a strong message. On Florida’s end, it’s hard to imagine that the Gators will be very pumped up to play in the Gasparilla Bowl after a 6-6 finish, and though the win over a much-improved Florida State team was a bit of a consolation, it also didn’t inspire a lot of confidence in UF under a staff that has already almost entirely been replaced.

Luckily for the Gators, they won’t have too many opt-outs in this one. Defensive end Zachary Carter is the only one so far to announce that he won’t play, meaning UF could even have likely first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam. However, they will likely be without receiver Jacob Copeland and linebacker Mohamoud Diabate, who entered the transfer portal. Quarterback Emory Jones also entered the portal, but he is expected to start in this one with Anthony Richardson out.

UCF lost quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who has since transferred to UCLA, earlier in the season. Mikey Keene has been solid as his replacement, and Johnny Richardson and Isaiah Bowser are a solid pair of backs, but this Knights offense isn’t as explosive as it has been in years past. I expect a relatively low-scoring game, and though I don’t have a lot of confidence in this pick, I think Florida’s talent advantage and desire to impress the new staff will give it just enough to win this game.

Florida 28, UCF 24

Pat Dooley - Staff Writer

Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

It feels like almost every game in the second half of the season was this dilemma — yeah, Florida is favored and has better players, but how do we know the mindset of the team heading into a bowl game they probably didn’t know existed two months ago.

Then, there is the Emory Jones factor. He’s in the portal and perhaps that will be his incentive not to throw the ball to the other team. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see how it works out.

Sometimes bowl games see strange things happen and in Florida’s case, that would be having an impact on special teams. Too often, bowl teams play to their records. We’ve seen Florida lose five straight games away from the Swamp, four of them as sizable favorites. Why change now?

UCF 31, Florida 28

David Rosenberg - Staff Writer

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

I’m actually surprised Florida is favored in this one. I know UCF doesn’t have the toughest schedule and 8-4 isn’t exactly what’s expected of the program these days, but it was still good enough for the best record in the state while playing a backup quarterback. I think running back Isaiah Bowser could have a big day against Florida’s shotty run defense, and it won’t help that the Gators will be without their leading tackler linebacker Mohamoud Diabate.

Emory Jones is in a prove-it situation of his own as he prepares to enter the transfer portal, but that’s not the case for most of the team. Some will be playing to show Napier that they deserve a spot on the field next year, but this is about as lame duck as it gets in college football.

It’s like playing 1-on-1 against your little brother with a bum ankle when you know he’ll hold the victory over you until 2024 when the real series starts. I expect this to be a close and exciting one for all four quarters, but the Knights will leave Tampa as the best college football team in Florida on Thursday.

UCF 31, Florida 28

Composite takeaway

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Gators Wire staff is in a dead heat when it comes to picking between UF and UCF, and there is a general consensus that pride will be the primary motivator in this game between two teams that did not have much to be proud of in 2021. Additionally, the composite score between the four of us was so close, we had to include the decimal values in order to pick the winner — which was Florida by a nose hair.

COMPOSITE SCORE: Florida 27, UCF 26.75

[listicle id=63015]

[listicle id=63077]

[listicle id=63619]

[listicle id=63920]

[listicle id=64452]

Follow us @GatorsWire on Twitter and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

1

1